War in Israel

[Randy Daytona]

US politics 101: most people will not switch and vote for the other guy/gal/party.
90% of political messaging is about turnout. If the Arab-Americans in Michigan stay home, bad news for Biden based on the 2020 numbers.

I don’t think that first line is completely accurate. You may be interested in a newly arriving book from Democratic pollsters John B Judis and Ruy Teixeira (they wrote “The Emerging Democratic Majority shortly before President Obama’s election in 2008). Their new analysis, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?”, has been just released and has a different argument, especially in light of the NYT / Sienna poll that came out 2 weeks ago. Here are the reviews from The New York Times and Politico (which includes a 1 hour interview with the authors which is well worth your time.)

Opinion | The Democrats Are Their Own Worst Enemies

John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira say the Democratic Party is failing in matters of culture and in matters of class.

www.nytimes.com

Why the era of the 'Emerging Democratic Majority' is collapsing

John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, co-authors of “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” are back with a new book that argues that the Democrats are imperiled by a “shadow party” that is forcing them into “radical” positions on cultural issues and diverting them away from their core economic issues.

www.politico.com

 

[Odominable]

Sounds better than the standard machine disconnect or heavy breathing followed by “we have been trying to reach you for your vehicle’s extended warranty…” that I typically get.

In all seriousness, any thoughts on these interviews being conducted by phone conversation possibly skewing the results? Not maligning anyone, but it’s my observation that only certain demographics are likely to pick up the phone and have a conversation with a stranger.

Yup, and I believe that’s been the subject of some significant hand wringing in the data industry, especially over the past few years. This is a few years old, but check out a relevant piece from Pew Research Center on a transition to online polling.

 

[IRfly]

I don’t think that first line is completely accurate. You may be interested in a newly arriving book from Democratic pollsters John B Judis and Ruy Teixeira (they wrote “The Emerging Democratic Majority shortly before President Obama’s election in 2008). Their new analysis, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?”, has been just released and has a different argument, especially in light of the NYT / Sienna poll that came out 2 weeks ago. Here are the reviews from The New York Times and Politico (which includes a 1 hour interview with the authors which is well worth your time.)

Opinion | The Democrats Are Their Own Worst Enemies

John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira say the Democratic Party is failing in matters of culture and in matters of class.

www.nytimes.com

Why the era of the 'Emerging Democratic Majority' is collapsing

John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, co-authors of “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” are back with a new book that argues that the Democrats are imperiled by a “shadow party” that is forcing them into “radical” positions on cultural issues and diverting them away from their core economic issues.

www.politico.com

This war is impacting on global and US politics on a profound level.

The level of this thread:

 

[Average Monke]

Because if you took Stat 101, you would learn that as long as the demographics of those 1,429 people are a close match to the demographics of 330 million Americans, then you will get +- 3.4% of what you would have gotten by polling all 330 million . . . and it's much cheaper to do. The hard part is getting an accurate sample population.

Yes, I am well aware how to calculate a confidence interval. On Friday, I started to write out a long clarification post about population parameters and logistic regressions, paused, laughed at myself, then closed the window.

 

[number9]

Yes, I am well aware how to calculate a confidence interval. On Friday, I started to write out a long clarification post about population parameters and logistic regressions, paused, laughed at myself, then closed the window.

Chebyshev: is my theorem a joke to you?

 

[ChuckMK23]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1726778743325155813

 

[Duc'-guy25]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1726778743325155813

“Tanker Takes Off From Carrier: Fear our Gas”

“Lone Super Hornet Launches to Take On Entire Hamas Air Force”

Some good headlines from that for you Chuck.

 

[Randy Daytona]

That is an insane demographic cliff. A sustainable replacement rate is about 2.1 or so. They will have open up to immigration.

In the NYT today from Ross Douthat:

Opinion | Is South Korea Disappearing?

What a dramatic birth dearth portends for South Koreans and the world.

www.nytimes.com

But South Korea is distinctive in that it slipped into below-replacement territory in the 1980s but lately has been falling even more — dropping below one child per woman in 2018, to 0.8 after the pandemic, and now, in provisional data for both the second and third quarters of 2023, to just 0.7 births per woman.

It’s worth unpacking what that means. A country that sustained a birthrate at that level would have, for every 200 people in one generation, 70 people in the next one, a depopulation exceeding what the Black Death delivered to Europe in the 14th century. Run the experiment through a second generational turnover, and your original 200-person population falls below 25. Run it again, and you’re nearing the kind of population crash caused by the fictional superflu in Stephen King’s “The Stand.”

 

[Mirage]

https://www.ft.com/content/e605513c-9dff-415c-859b-70aa93adb269

"The fighting escalated even after US officials, from secretary of defence Lloyd Austin to vice-president Kamala Harris, warned Israel to take more steps to protect civilians in Gaza. The US pays for as much as a fifth of Israel’s defence budget — $3.8bn a year — under an Obama-administration agreement.

“In this kind of a fight, the centre of gravity is the civilian population. And if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat,” Austin said in a speech to the Reagan National Defense Forum in California this weekend."

Looks like the Biden admin is certainly starting to respond to concerns from both sides regarding Israeli tactics.

Also doesn't look like Israel cares:

"The UN said dozens of people had been killed in a Saturday air strike on a six-storey building in a refugee camp in northern Gaza, after residents were given an hour and a half’s notice to evacuate it.

A block in Gaza City was hit later on Saturday, destroying 50 residential buildings, the UN said. The number of casualties caused by this incident is not yet known."

Israel: "Go south or you will be collateral damage!"
*Bombs both the North and the South*
"You can't go back North and you can't go South to Egypt, but go... Somewhere else or you will be collateral damage!"
*Bombs both the North and the South*

 

[taxi1]

Also doesn't look like Israel cares:

Polls in Israel show very, very few people are willing to consider tolerating Hamas' existence now. Support for exterminating them is sky high. They see it as an existential battle now.

Hamas asked for this, and they are getting it, Palestinians be damned. Ugly.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Polls in Israel show very, very few people are willing to consider tolerating Hamas' existence now. Support for exterminating them is sky high. They see it as an existential battle now.

Hamas asked for this, and they are getting it, Palestinians be damned. Ugly.

I have come to the conclusion personally, that this was the plan of Hamas all along - to use martyrdom as a weapon. What tale will history tell?

 

[Mirage]

I have come to the conclusion personally, that this was the plan of Hamas all along - to use martyrdom as a weapon. What tale will history tell?

If that's the case, then Israel is playing right into their hands. They cannot bomb Hamas out of existence, and trying to is just creating an awful lot of innocent martyrs.. to SECDEFs point. They're creating 2 extremists for every 1 they kill, and you cannot win a war like this that way.

 

[taxi1]

I have come to the conclusion personally, that this was the plan of Hamas all along - to use martyrdom as a weapon. What tale will history tell?

If that's the case, then Israel is playing right into their hands. They cannot bomb Hamas out of existence, and trying to is just creating an awful lot of innocent martyrs.. to SECDEFs point.

Hamas has flat-out come out and said they are willing to fight to the last dead civilian Palestinian. My paraphrasing.

Israel certainly is responding as one would expect them to, following the massacre of a few thousand of their citizens. Smart play by Hamas? 6D chess? Assuming they care nothing for the Palestinians in Gaza? I'm not sure.

There are an awful lot of wars where things didn't quite work out as originally planned. What if Israel is unmoved by the civilian death toll, and willing to go right through them to get to Hamas? Looking that way.

All eyes on Hezbollah and Iran.

 

[Mos]

If that's the case, then Israel is playing right into their hands. They cannot bomb Hamas out of existence, and trying to is just creating an awful lot of innocent martyrs.. to SECDEFs point. They're creating 2 extremists for every 1 they kill, and you cannot win a war like this that way.

That ship sailed well before Oct 7. Let's be realistic, nothing Israel does is going to change the hearts and minds of the Palestinians, nor of the international community at this point. The only reason left for Israel to mitigate non-combatant casualties is because it's the right thing to do.

 

[Mirage]

That ship sailed well before Oct 7. Let's be realistic, nothing Israel does is going to change the hearts and minds of the Palestinians, nor of the international community at this point. The only reason left for Israel to mitigate non-combatant casualties is because it's the right thing to do.

I'd say their tactics have changed and will continue to change the opinions of many within the international community. It's happening in our own administration right now.

My prediction is Israel ends this by killing everyone who fights them, plus tens of thousands who dont, and destroys Hamas. Their tactics in doing so will cost them their unique international support and sympathy, and strengthen the Palestinian position relative to before the war. Dismantling Hamas will prove insignificant because the remaining Palestinians will hate them more than ever and will have more support than ever. Israel wins the battle but loses the war.

In essence, I agree with SECDEF.