War in Israel

[sevenhelmet]

More Houthi attacks. Not good.

3 commercial ships hit by missiles in Houthi attack in Red Sea, US warship downs 3 drones

Ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea.

apnews.com

 

[FLGUY]

I'd say their tactics have changed and will continue to change the opinions of many within the international community. It's happening in our own administration right now.

My prediction is Israel ends this by killing everyone who fights them, plus tens of thousands who dont, and destroys Hamas. Their tactics in doing so will cost them their unique international support and sympathy, and strengthen the Palestinian position relative to before the war. Dismantling Hamas will prove insignificant because the remaining Palestinians will hate them more than ever and will have more support than ever. Israel wins the battle but loses the war.

In essence, I agree with SECDEF.

It really makes you wonder, what is the correct response? (If such a complex situation can even have a clear response).

How can you send a strong enough message of “Leave us the hell alone” to all your neighbors that hate you, without going overboard? And also how do you avoid sending a weak message due to fear of civilian casualties when the enemy uses civilians as shields?

 

[Mirage]

It really makes you wonder, what is the correct response? (If such a complex situation can even have a clear response).

How can you send a strong enough message of “Leave us the hell alone” to all your neighbors that hate you, without going overboard? And also how do you avoid sending a weak message due to fear of civilian casualties when the enemy uses civilians as shields?

I'd start by telling my air force to stop leveling entire apartment complexes and stick to a ground invasion where civilian casualties can be minimized, any use of human shields can be recorded and publicized, and Hamas can actually be thoroughly destroyed.

What comes after is a hard question.. how to dismantle Hamas while minimizing civilian casualties is not. Use bullets instead of bombs.

 

[Brett327]

I have come to the conclusion personally, that this was the plan of Hamas all along - to use martyrdom as a weapon. What tale will history tell?

If that's the case, then Israel is playing right into their hands.

Have you guys considered authoring an IR theory 101 textbook around these themes you're developing?

My prediction is Israel ends this by killing everyone who fights them, plus tens of thousands who dont, and destroys Hamas. Their tactics in doing so will cost them their unique international support and sympathy, and strengthen the Palestinian position relative to before the war. Dismantling Hamas will prove insignificant because the remaining Palestinians will hate them more than ever and will have more support than ever. Israel wins the battle but loses the war.

I hope this sounds very familiar to everyone who studies US foreign policy.

 

[Flash]

My prediction is Israel ends this by killing everyone who fights them, plus tens of thousands who dont, and destroys Hamas. Their tactics in doing so will cost them their unique international support and sympathy, and strengthen the Palestinian position relative to before the war. Dismantling Hamas will prove insignificant because the remaining Palestinians will hate them more than ever and will have more support than ever. Israel wins the battle but loses the war.

I don't think that is really possible. From what I've seen the vast majority of Palestinians would love to see Israel wiped out and all its Jewish citizens killed, that has been the modus operandi for many of the Arab citizens in the region since the idea of Israel gained traction a century ago. The fact that more than a few regular Gazans gleefully took part in the attack and its aftermath is more than enough proof of that. The casualness of that attitude along with the undercurrent of virulent anti-Semitism is not something you really grasp until you see it first-hand.

It also seems folks are forgetting just how brutal and how costly the attack on October 7th was to Israel. It was the deadly single day for Jews since the end of World War II and was the equivalent of the US having about 43,000 people killed. So the fact that they continue to prosecute this war makes sense, and is why we haven't put more pressure on them to rein things in more. Combat in a city is going to be ugly, it is worse in this case because the citizens have nowhere else to go but overall it is not drastically different than what we did in Fallujah or Mosul.

 

[sevenhelmet]

What do you guys think is the correct response to the Houthis? They've been sniping at commercial and naval traffic for years, and my guess is they aren't going to stop.

 

[BigRed389]

What do you guys think is the correct response to the Houthis? They've been sniping at commercial and naval traffic for years, and my guess is they aren't going to stop.

I think it just shows the strategy of wanting to leave the Middle East won’t work as neatly as we’d like, unless we simply decide the trade through the area is unimportant.

Ideally we’d have reliable and capable partners in the region aligned to us that would handle most of the problem. But while we’ve been looking at Saudi, UAE and Egypt they all have significant issues in both reliability and capability. The PRC is also trying to extend its influence in the region as well.

That doesn’t leave us with a lot of good options outside of military force. The preferable one is SOF + airstrikes…ideally with a Coalition of the right local partners backing it.

 

[Randy Daytona]

As t

I think it just shows the strategy of wanting to leave the Middle East won’t work as neatly as we’d like, unless we simply decide the trade through the area is unimportant.

Ideally we’d have reliable and capable partners in the region aligned to us that would handle most of the problem. But while we’ve been looking at Saudi, UAE and Egypt they all have significant issues in both reliability and capability. The PRC is also trying to extend its influence in the region as well.

That doesn’t leave us with a lot of good options outside of military force. The preferable one is SOF + airstrikes…ideally with a Coalition of the right local partners backing it.

As the LCS’s aren’t of much use in the Pacific, wonder if they could contribute there?

 

[Swanee]

More Houthi attacks. Not good.

3 commercial ships hit by missiles in Houthi attack in Red Sea, US warship downs 3 drones

Ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea.

apnews.com

We've been holding back in that area for a few years, and doing a lot to keep the peace. If the Houthi's keep doing stuff like this I fear that we'll finally come in swinging.

I don't think anyone familiar with the area thinks anything good can come of it. I hope we continue with the status quo.

 

[sevenhelmet]

We've been holding back in that area for a few years, and doing a lot to keep the peace. If the Houthi's keep doing stuff like this I fear that we'll finally come in swinging.

I don't think anyone familiar with the area thinks anything good can come of it. I hope we continue with the status quo.

Seems like the Houthis (and Iran by proxy) are applying terrorist logic to that idea, hoping that they can goad us onto a COA that will bolster their opposition to the West.

I'm not wordly enough to suggest constructive alternatives, but status quo is really unsatisfying- they strike us and commercial shipping as much as they want to and we just... take it?

 

[Swanee]

Seems like the Houthis (and Iran by proxy) are applying terrorist logic to that idea, hoping that they can goad us onto a COA that will bolster their opposition to the West.

I'm not wordly enough to suggest constructive alternatives, but status quo is really unsatisfying- they strike us and commercial shipping as much as they want to and we just... take it?

I don't think we should take it. I think that we have other options in that part of the world to stop this that doesn't involve things that will show up on the news and escalate hostilities. That's the status quo.

But if not we can always repeat the Tripolitan War.

 

[Gatordev]

I'm not wordly enough to suggest constructive alternatives, but status quo is really unsatisfying- they strike us and commercial shipping as much as they want to and we just... take it?

It's all relative, of course, but I wouldn't say we've "taken it." There have been strikes on their launch points as well as usage of SOF in the past.

 

[Gonzo08]

It also seems folks are forgetting just how brutal and how costly the attack on October 7th was to Israel. It was the deadly single day for Jews since the end of World War II and was the equivalent of the US having about 43,000 people killed. So the fact that they continue to prosecute this war makes sense, and is why we haven't put more pressure on them to rein things in more.

It's a shame that there isn't another country out there that suffered a brutal loss of life to terrorism and then spent 20+ years of blood and treasure to get nowhere. If there was, maybe that country could have shared its lessons of caution instead of throwing 100% of its political support behind Israel in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks.

 

[taxi1]

It's a shame that there isn't another country out there that suffered a brutal loss of life to terrorism and then spent 20+ years of blood and treasure to get nowhere. If there was, maybe that country could have shared its lessons of caution instead of throwing 100% of its political support behind Israel in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks.

I don't think Israel is planning to invade Sri Lanka in response to an attack from Gaza.

 

[zippy]

What do you guys think is the correct response to the Houthis? They've been sniping at commercial and naval traffic for years, and my guess is they aren't going to stop.

Or you know, at stop giving them money…