Merritt,
I am not sure how long you have been "in the community", but your lack of knowledge as to career path and state of dh screen, what milestones it takes to screen, etc would make me believe that you are either in the rag, or just barely out. If not, you need to get smart on what it takes to make that screen board or you will have no prayer!
I will stay away from the NFO specifics for this post, and address more the state of the community and the navy05 questions.
To start with, is it hard to make 20 years in the VP Navy? TO a certain extent yes. The DH screen rate for the last few years has hovered around 50% give or take. Last years board was 47%, with the percentage for NFO's screening being slightly higher than for the pilots due to less staying in and an overall smaller number in community. Screening for dh is a tough process, as the numbers show, and there are certain definite milestones that you have to hit on your first tour to make the mark.
**AS ALWAYS THERE CAN BE MINOR EXCEPTIONS, SO SAVE THOSE COMMENTS, BUT THE LAST TWO BOARDS WOULD INDICATE THAT THERE AREN'T ANY**
The career path is pretty set. First tour, break out, go to solid "in community" shore tour (RAG is the preferred choice), break out, GO TO THE BOAT, screen dh, DH tour in squadron, Break out, etc etc. You get the idea. There are several ways to get off on the right foot, make a name for yourself and get on the path to breaking out in your first JO tour, which is crucial. A mediocre first tour is a deal breaker. I am not going to go into the milestone specifics right now, but I will say that one of the best ways to get off on the right foot is to actually go to work!! There is no time to skate by on the "new guy" card, and don't be that guy that doesn't show unless you are flying. You will have a ground job, you will start to learn to lead, and you need to be there. You can make or break your reputation in your squadron in the first few months! Just a tip to get you started.
As for the state of the community, I selected P-3's because I wanted to fly them, I liked the crew concept, I liked the mission variety, and I liked the lifestyle. The lack of flight time issue is a little subjective. There are guys that don't get that much, I agree. And the across the board average is probably not as high as it once was, as Stubby can probably attest. However, do well, get a crew, make IP, be on good deployments and you will get plenty. I left my JO tour with almost 1800 hours pilot time (screw time not included). I got to do every mission I had been trained for "real world". The P-3 is very versatile, and I enjoyed the flying. (ASW on a target is a blast!) Wanna drop ord? Got the opportunity to drop MAV, Slam, Rockeye, MK-82, Harpoon, as well as practice shapes and extorps. In short, I got to do all the things I wanted to in my first tour, and had a blast doing it. Got to take my crew on det to some great places, no parental supervision required. Great experience!
The flight hour problem is less and less of an issue now, as many of the birds that were out of service at the apex of the flight restriction are now refit and coming back to the squadrons, meaning more planes to fly. Also, the hours per month have increased a lot over the low point. Finally, fewer pilots per squadron. All these things add up to more flight hours for you, and a continuing upswing in community health. There are many great things about going VP, and I haven't regretted it for a second.
All that being said, there are also some things that definitely are NOT that great. 3 hour preflights, down birds, dh screen rates, time out of the cockpit for disassociated sea tour, etc, but you have a lot of these issues no matter what route you choose. The screen rate is better in other communities, but it may not be forever. Concern over making career prospects is a valid point, but you need to do well no matter what community you choose.
Choose what you want to fly based on what you would enjoy, what fits your strengths and where you will be happiest and have the best chance to excel, because picking some other community based on a better community screen rate and sucking at it will just make you that smaller percentage that doesn't screen in THAT community.
Bottom line, the screen rates are lower, but it is a great community if it is the type of flying you want to do. Work hard and perform well and you greatly enhance your chances of surviving 20 yrs, but it still may not work out for you. By the time you are in that screen window, it may have gone away. The DH screen in really competetive form for VP is only 3 or 4 years old. No telling if it will still be an issue by the time you get there. Good luck and let me know if you have questions.