Hard Power and Soft Power

[BigRed389]

Germany, like France, can bypass their defense debt limit by selling government bonds. But, this is an excellent example why a CDU/CSU - SPD government might struggle to last long. While defense may be a secondary matter to the German voters, immigration clearly is. To get over these two hurdles CDU is going to need AfD votes as they did for the last round of immigration reform bills. If they blow it, AfD will likely come out on top in the next election.

Yeah I’m not gonna pretend to follow German politics much at all, you guys probably have way more insight.

My main take though is that I get the sense any of our European allies are freaking the fuck out about what the current Administration is doing, and it may be the trigger they need to start pulling out the stops on things that previously just weren’t enough of a priority to be the priority.

And a big one others have mentioned here is nuclear. No US nuclear umbrella, that could change a lot in them being willing to do things that were previously unthinkable. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Japan (who is culturally allergic to nuclear weapons) is even willing to go there

 

[squorch2]

Yeah I’m not gonna pretend to follow German politics much at all, you guys probably have way more insight.

My main take though is that I get the sense any of our European allies are freaking the fuck out about what the current Administration is doing, and it may be the trigger they need to start pulling out the stops on things that previously just weren’t enough of a priority to be the priority.

And a big one others have mentioned here is nuclear. No US nuclear umbrella, that could change a lot in them being willing to do things that were previously unthinkable. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Japan (who is culturally allergic to nuclear weapons) is even willing to go there

 

[Randy Daytona]

This is an amazing presentation.
So many people tend to view jurisdictional geography as if it were similar to physical geography, static or tectonic in movement.
And most Americans have difficulty even understanding our own county and North America's historical boundary ebb and flow, especially if we look at pre-1775.
So to attempt to understand the feelings of those in Europe, the middle east, Asia, or anywhere that is not our personal area of expertise when it comes to these often historically arbitrary boundaries is to do those peoples a disservice.
For example, I personally had little to no knowledge of the Balkans, and "former Yugoslavia" until I deployed there as part of Operation Joint Endeavor. Talking with those who lived there, and their perspective of our attempts to stabilize the region (Dayton Accords) was a real eye opener.
So for me, I find it difficult to offer an opinion of what is the appropriate action in regards to UA and RU, not having a full understanding of the "geographical" history, for lack of a better phrase.

A few interesting websites are “History Undone with James Hanson” https://m.youtube.com/@HistoryUndonewithJamesHanson. and “Hardcore History” with Dan Carlin. https://m.youtube.com/@dancarlinpodcaster. Naval history with Drachinifel. https://m.youtube.com/@Drachinifel.

If you are looking for current events, there is Ian Bremmer https://m.youtube.com/@GZEROMedia and out of Stanford, “The Goodfellows”. https://m.youtube.com/@HooverInstitution

Enjoy!

 

[BigRed389]

That’s fascinating.

Trying to understand as a German ignorant, lemme know if I got the gist right:

CDU/CSU normie conservatives, basically former W Germany.
The uncomfortably close to Nazis are former E Germany
E Berlin went totally the other way from their E German brethren and went commie for some weird reason

No idea why the SPD/Green hippie liberal commies are scattered where they are…large cities?

 

[Griz882]

That’s fascinating.

Trying to understand as a German ignorant, lemme know if I got the gist right:

CDU/CSU normie conservatives, basically former W Germany.
The uncomfortably close to Nazis are former E Germany
E Berlin went totally the other way from their E German brethren and went commie for some weird reason

No idea why the SPD/Green hippie liberal commies are scattered where they are…large cities?

Pretty close. Much like the U.S., the left and center-left is clustered around urban areas. But keep in mind, these colors reflect the majority in each area, also like the U.S. each area had a blend of all colors.

 

[squorch2]

The uncomfortably close to Nazis are former E Germany

Hard right Russian-backed. Also Elon-backed.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Sort of interesting shift in political ideologies. The west trends far closer to popular socialism, whilst the east trends closer to hard western right. I guess at a minimum, communism apparently wasn't really the east's bag. Maybe something having to do with the Stasi.

 

[JTS11]

Sort of interesting shift in political ideologies. The west trends far closer to popular socialism, whilst the east trends closer to hard western right. I guess at a minimum, communism apparently wasn't really the east's bag. Maybe something having to do with the Stasi.

I think the political linear spectrum is broken. Numerous examples here in what were traditionally conservative views, that have been upended by the current/former administration.

German elections are weird. It is interesting to see that geographic split. There were a non-zero number of people who did not want reunification.

 

[MIDNJAC]

I think the political linear spectrum is broken. Numerous examples here in what were traditionally conservative views, that have been upended by the current/former administration.

I mean these idiots are about to commit hare kari over Medicaid. It is going to be really entertaining to watch, especially since I know nobody who depends on Medicaid, and I imagine that many who do voted for this

 

[Brett327]

I mean these idiots are about to commit hare kari over Medicaid. It is going to be really entertaining to watch, especially since I know nobody who depends on Medicaid, and I imagine that many who do voted for this

Ask the same Red State cohort their opinion on ACA and Obamacare and you'll get two vastly different answers. Now throw in empty campaign promises and a vast disinformation network and it's no wonder these people are voting against their own interests.

 

[cfam]

Sort of interesting shift in political ideologies. The west trends far closer to popular socialism, whilst the east trends closer to hard western right. I guess at a minimum, communism apparently wasn't really the east's bag. Maybe something having to do with the Stasi.

Honestly, I think it has less to do with their attitude towards communism and more towards a feeling of being left behind by the west.

The former DDR had its core national identity changed essentially overnight when the wall fell, and they’ve felt like second class citizens ever since. Add to that a significant outflow of educated people (especially educated women), and the feeling that the former west looks down on them, and you have a desire to vote for the party that positioned themselves as an agent of change (in this case the AFD).

When I studied in the former DDR, it was still apparent and striking (even 30 years after the wall fell) how alienated the rural population felt from the rest of Germany. Aside from the major population centers (Leipzig, Dresden, etc.), those states have really been hollowed out. Paradoxically, immigration would (and has, to the limited extent they’ve allowed it to) solve a lot of their problems, especially the lack of skilled professionals willing to work outside of the major cities.

 

[Random8145]

Sort of interesting shift in political ideologies. The west trends far closer to popular socialism, whilst the east trends closer to hard western right. I guess at a minimum, communism apparently wasn't really the east's bag. Maybe something having to do with the Stasi.

My understanding is that traditionally, east Germany (former Warsaw Pact Germany) has been extremely left-wing in its politics, i.e. not hardcore free market or anything.

 

[Random8145]

Honestly, I think it has less to do with their attitude towards communism and more towards a feeling of being left behind by the west.

The former DDR had its core national identity changed essentially overnight when the wall fell, and they’ve felt like second class citizens ever since. Add to that a significant outflow of educated people (especially educated women), and the feeling that the former west looks down on them, and you have a desire to vote for the party that positioned themselves as an agent of change (in this case the AFD).

I've read a majority (or at least a huge number) of the combat arms ground troops in the U.S. military come from the southern states. I wonder if the same holds true with Germany, with a lot of their military coming from the East?

 

[MIDNJAC]

My understanding is that traditionally, east Germany (former Warsaw Pact Germany) has been extremely left-wing in its politics, i.e. not hardcore free market or anything.

Right, that was my point, that they appear not to be anymore

I'd buy cfam's explanation, he has been a lot closer to the source population than I have

 

[cfam]

Right, that was my point, that they appear not to be anymore

I'd buy cfam's explanation, he has been a lot closer to the source population than I have

They definitely were, and to a certain extent still are, hence the popularity of the BSW (a party founded last year) in last year’s state elections in the east. It’s just that a desire for radical change has outweighed historical party allegiances in the past few years.

For those who aren’t familiar, the BSW is a party formed by a politician who broke away from the Linke (the party that is the direct descendant of the former DDR ruling party). The BSW has also positioned itself as a change agent, with far left positions on some issues but also a very pro-Russia and anti-immigrant stance. They’re competing with the AFD for the same disaffected voters.