Europe under extreme duress

[Uncle Fester]

Though it doesn't get much press here outside of foreign policy wonk circles, things are getting interesting in the Baltic. The Finns are dumping a ton of money into a huge defense modernization and expansion program, and starting to toy with the idea of a defense union of some kind with Sweden. The Swedes were badly embarrassed by a bunch of Russian sea and air incursions over the last few years to which they were unable to effectively respond.

I would not be surprised if they and the Baltics became increasingly tight in the coming years, especially given the new US admin's disdain for NATO. Estonia in particular is ethnically and culturally close to Finland (sort of analogous to US and Canada), so a defense alliance is not unthinkable.

Bottom line is they're clearly worried about Russian intentions, and they're spending accordingly. The Baltics and Finland, after all, have been invaded, owned, and/or occupied by Russians within living memory. Finland spent the post-WWII years carefully threading the needle of accommodating the Russians and avoiding pissing them off without being controlled by them. The fact that they're openly ramping up their defense spending and organization now means they're genuinely worried.

 

[Flash]

Though it doesn't get much press here outside of foreign policy wonk circles, things are getting interesting in the Baltic. The Finns are dumping a ton of money into a huge defense modernization and expansion program, and starting to toy with the idea of a defense union of some kind with Sweden. The Swedes were badly embarrassed by a bunch of Russian sea and air incursions over the last few years to which they were unable to effectively respond.

I would not be surprised if they and the Baltics became increasingly tight in the coming years, especially given the new US admin's disdain for NATO. Estonia in particular is ethnically and culturally close to Finland (sort of analogous to US and Canada), so a defense alliance is not unthinkable.

Who says they aren't already? You are spot on, if there is any group of countries that are wary of Russia it is the Baltics followed closely by the Scandinavians, especially the Finns and the Norwegians. I think it is telling that after sticking with a policy of neutrality through the Cold War both the Finns and Swedes are both having real national debates about joining NATO.

Bottom line is they're clearly worried about Russian intentions, and they're spending accordingly. The Baltics and Finland, after all, have been invaded, owned, and/or occupied by Russians within living memory. Finland spent the post-WWII years carefully threading the needle of accommodating the Russians and avoiding pissing them off without being controlled by them. The fact that they're openly ramping up their defense spending and organization now means they're genuinely worried.

One of the things that I find a bit frustrating and telling about NATO expansion going all the way up to Russia's borders is that the perspective of the countries joined NATO mainly because they have very recent memories of Russian aggression and occupation is often overlooked.

 

[Caesium]

Given the new administration's somewhat isolationist-lite proclivities, France and Germany have a real opportunity to step up to the plate and fill part of the void the US is leaving in European leadership should they be willing and able. Germany is already Europe's de facto economic and (sort of) political leader, and France can establish itself as its military leader (Germany being too squeamish and Britain being too distant) if it shows initiative. Of course that would necessitate not electing Le Pen President.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Who says they aren't already? You are spot on, if there is any group of countries that are wary of Russia it is the Baltics followed closely by the Scandinavians, especially the Finns and the Norwegians. I think it is telling that after sticking with a policy of neutrality through the Cold War both the Finns and Swedes are both having real national debates about joining NATO.

Not to be pedantic, but broadly speaking Finns aren't Scandinavians, though there are a lot of Finns of Swedish extraction. They're more closely related to the Balts. I bring it up because Finland was swapped back and forth between Sweden and Russia for most of its history and was treated very badly by both, so there is lingering distrust of and animosity towards the Swedes as well as the Russians. So the fact that Finland is willing to risk poking the Bear and even consider allying with the Swedes is a big deal.

 

[Flash]

Not to be pedantic, but broadly speaking Finns aren't Scandinavians, though there are a lot of Finns of Swedish extraction. They're more closely related to the Balts. I bring it up because Finland was swapped back and forth between Sweden and Russia for most of its history and was treated very badly by both, so there is lingering distrust of and animosity towards the Swedes as well as the Russians. So the fact that Finland is willing to risk poking the Bear and even consider allying with the Swedes is a big deal.

Sigh...Okay, the 'Nordic' countries. Happy now?!

If we are going to nerd out on details the Finns are ethnically and linguistically related to the Estonians, sharing a common Finnic ethnicity and Uralic languages, but not so much the Latvians and Lithuanians. So there!

Either way, the Baltics, Nordics and Scandinavians are wary of Russia and starting to prepare for eventualities they hadn't considered since the end of the Cold War and then some.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Sigh...Okay, the 'Nordic' countries. Happy now?!

If we are going to nerd out on details the Finns are ethnically and linguistically related to the Estonians, sharing a common Finnic ethnicity and Uralic languages, but not so much the Latvians and Lithuanians. So there!

Either way, the Baltics, Nordics and Scandinavians are wary of Russia and starting to prepare for eventualities they hadn't considered since the end of the Cold War and then some.

I said I wasn't trying to be pedantic...

My point was just that the Finns still generally don't like the Swedes much; it's lingering resentment of a former colony toward the colonizer. So even considering an alliance with them sort of tells you how bothered the Finns are getting about Putin's intentions. I tried to think of a good analogy and the best I could come up with is, it'd be an equally big deal if South Korea formed a joint military force with Japan against China, though that's not a great metaphor. The Russians and Swedes weren't brutal towards Finland - more like suppression of language and culture, that sort of thing - but still.

Estonian and Finnish are related, though only sorta mutually intelligible. My Finnish-speaking relatives have told me that if a Finn and Estonian have had enough to drink (and Finns and Estonians do like a drink or two), aren't real picky about grammar, and keep the topic simple, they can kinda-sorta hold a conversation. I gather it's sort of like Spanish and Portuguese, or Dutch and Afrikaans.

 

[Flash]

...My point was just that the Finns still generally don't like the Swedes much; it's lingering resentment of a former colony toward the colonizer. So even considering an alliance with them sort of tells you how bothered the Finns are getting about Putin's intentions....

The folks I know who have worked with both haven't seen any resentment, lingering or otherwise, when dealing with them.

 

[Uncle Fester]

The folks I know who have worked with both haven't seen any resentment, lingering or otherwise, when dealing with them.

My dad's Finnish. Just going off what I always heard from his family. But I dunno, maybe that was 'back in the Old Country' bullshit.

Just seemed like, if the Baltic was an '80s movie summer camp, the Finns thought of themselves as the scrappy underdogs, the Swedes as the snotty rich kids across the lake, and the Russians as the psycho in the woods who'd axe-murder you if you wandered off alone.

 

[Flash]

My dad's Finnish. Just going off what I always heard from his family. But I dunno, maybe that was 'back in the Old Country' bullshit.

The folks they dealt with were military or related types so I think they are much more focused on the current threats than some others.

Just seemed like, if the Baltic was an '80s movie summer camp, the Finns thought of themselves as the scrappy underdogs, the Swedes as the snotty rich kids across the lake, and the Russians as the psycho in the woods who'd axe-murder you if you wandered off alone.

The overarching theme was the same as you have said though, they are all wary of Russia and whatever old issues there might be the one on their doorstep is a much higher priority. From what I have seen and heard the military and security folks from the Nordics, Baltics and Poland are taking the threat from Russia much more seriously than almost anyone else in Europe which makes sense due to them being much closer to the threat than others. The most surprising thing to me lately was the steadfast neutrality in Sweden and the enforced neutrality of Finland is showing cracks at the seams with a real domestic debate happening in both countries about whether they should join NATO. Especially for Sweden, which clung tenaciously to neutrality through WWII and the Cold War the mere fact there is a spirited debate about abandoning it, even though it is still unlikely to happen as of now, is surprising to me.

 

[Gatordev]

My dad's Finnish. Just going off what I always heard from his family. But I dunno, maybe that was 'back in the Old Country' bullshit.

Just seemed like, if the Baltic was an '80s movie summer camp, the Finns thought of themselves as the scrappy underdogs, the Swedes as the snotty rich kids across the lake, and the Russians as the psycho in the woods who'd axe-murder you if you wandered off alone.

Interestingly enough, this topic is also related to why fire engines are red.

 

[Randy Daytona]

So whom do y'all consider the bigger threat to US national security: Russia or China?

 

[Uncle Fester]

So whom do y'all consider the bigger threat to US national security: Russia or China?

'Bigger' in what sense? Russia has the bigger nuclear arsenal but a less-organized conventional force, and I don't foresee any scenarios that would lead to a crisis with them unless Putin decides to start one. So any crisis with them is likely to be a deliberate provocation and less likely to de-escalate. China has a more modern and better-organized force but they have less centralized control. I think it would be easier to stumble into a crisis with them but they would have more motive to de-escalate. Assuming it doesn't go nuclear, I'm more worried about US casualties in a war with China than one with Russia.

Bottom line is they're both capable adversaries and we need to be prepared for a general conflict with either of them.

 

[Recovering LSO]

So whom do y'all consider the bigger threat to US national security: Russia or China?

What's your time horizon? I saw a clever comment the other day: Russia is playing checkers; China is playing chess.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Russia is not playing. Russia is restoring USSR to the possible degree - minus Baltic states, minus all former Asian "-stans" (Uzbeki-, Tajiki- etc, except for KZ, as it has gas and oil), but it is very interesting question about Ukraine, dunno for sure. And while Mr.Putin is doing so, no real threats to US interests in Europe exist. China is another question. Last time I've been in China (a month ago), I've noted the Chinese regional maps on the walls in a government buildings - Taiwan is painted the very same colour that mainland China, and the whole Korean peninsula has almost the same colour, I barely could tell North from South even staring at the blank-point. As Taiwan and South Korea are much more important US allies in Asia than Ukraine or Georgia in Europe, it seems that if your definite enemy is going to appear soon, it won't be Russia...

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

and we need to be prepared for a general conflict with either of them.

So does either of them. Look, let's remove the propaganda from military affairs. Whatever we will or will not have in a form of crisis, it won't be the massive conventional war, nor nuclear. It will be drone-cyber-cia-fsb-mossad-isis-etc-oriented war, a war in which CSGs, TFWs, MEUs etc, let alone SSBNs, will not be employed. Frankly, I think the only possible naval battles of the future will be SSNs' duels by occasions. In real modern warfare no one eagerly shows his flags but everyone tries to hide them as hard as it is possible...