Average NSS score range for aircraft selection

[MIDNJAC]

The Navy has no such guarantee in writing, but often (not always) accommodated in practice.

Yeah in my (I think *our*) time, I never saw #1 not get what they wanted. Probably even the top 5 got what they wanted. It's been a long time, but 72 NSS seems to ring a bell for what got me there, and there were people with less who did too. It's probably in a post of mine from 15-16 years ago if any nerds want to go looking. But to be fair, I wouldn't say that making it through the T-45 advanced syllabus was a high point in my life......I still remember my check in meeting with the VMFAT-101 Training Officer, who did not mince any words when he looked at my jacket and said "statistically, you will not make it through our FRS" I think by this point in my life I can say that his comment or advice was pretty misguided and wrong, but that is to say that primary NSS means basically nothing in life, and probably doesn't even mean much in primary.

 

[Gatordev]

he looked at my jacket and said "statistically, you will not make it through our FRS"

Why was that? Because your Advanced NSS was lower? Because high Primary NSSesses mean lazy FRS studs? I'm curious what the statistics said.

and probably doesn't even mean much in primary.

It correlates to expected performance pretty well. A high NSS student usually means that there was micro-managing mistakes in day-to-day training. A "mid-tier" NSS (like low 50's) means there were mistakes, but debriefing usually means they don't happen again. Low NSS usually correlates to repeated instruction for certain items until the light bulb comes on, which usually happens.

I did see one exception...I had an On-wing that was certainly not bad during FAMs, but didn't seem a whole lot better than average. He ended up with a mid-50's NSS and got jets. There were several of us that were surprised. Although some of that may have also been us being tired of his attitude when we'd fly with him. But I digress.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Why was that? Because your Advanced NSS was lower? Because high Primary NSSesses mean lazy FRS studs? I'm curious what the statistics said.



It correlates to expected performance pretty well. A high NSS student usually means that there was micro-managing mistakes in day-to-day training. A "mid-tier" NSS (like low 50's) means there were mistakes, but debriefing usually means they don't happen again. Low NSS usually correlates to repeated instruction for certain items until the light bulb comes on, which usually happens.

I did see one exception...I had an On-wing that was certainly not bad during FAMs, but didn't seem a whole lot better than average. He ended up with a mid-50's NSS and got jets. There were several of us that were surprised. Although some of that may have also been us being tired of his attitude when we'd fly with him. But I digress.

Yeah, my advanced NSS was less than 50. Which I guess was some sort of warning signal at the time. Maybe it still is. That guy was also just kind of an a hole, in hindsight, so maybe it was just him.

My point was that my much higher primary NSS was not a good predictor for performance in the rest of flight school, though I guess I got past the E2/C2 draft, and did ultimately pass advanced (and the FRS, fleet, several syllabi after that, IP duty x 3, and airline training )......so I guess maybe they were right?

 

[IKE]

Yeah, my advanced NSS was less than 50. Which I guess was some sort of warning signal at the time. Maybe it still is. That guy was also just kind of an a hole, in hindsight, so maybe it was just him.

My point was that my much higher primary NSS was not a good predictor for performance in the rest of flight school, though I guess I got past the E2/C2 draft, and did ultimately pass advanced (and the FRS, fleet, several syllabi after that, IP duty x 3, and airline training )......so I guess maybe they were right?

NSS is like enlisted advancement exam scoring. It's normalized so 50 is the median, and I think the std dev is 10. Anyhow, half of all students should have an NSS < 50 at each stage. I'd think an NSS of 35 or 30 would be a warning. IIRC, 35 is passing on advancement exams.

 

[MIDNJAC]

NSS is like enlisted advancement exam scoring. It's normalized so 50 is the median, and I think the std dev is 10. Anyhow, half of all students should have an NSS < 50 at each stage. I'd think an NSS of 35 or 30 would be a warning. IIRC, 35 is passing on advancement exams.

I think my NSS was somewhere in the high 30's or low 40's. Couldn't give a shit now, but at the time, it was stressful and to be quite honest, a really massive level of importance given to what was statistically a few average events in inopportune stages (and one unsat given by a well know a hole COD driver who shouldn't have ever been given the keys to a T-45). Suffice to say that as an FRS IP now (after instructing for years at higher levels than that), I don't put a lot of stock into what the VT's have to say about a person.

 

[MIDNJAC]

And sorry, to be clear, that wasn't intended to be a slight against the dudes and dudettes in the VTs working their tails off. It is a slight against the MPTS grading system as a whole, and the relatively imperfect picture it paints of a new cone. Most of ours are really awesome, with the occasional outliers. I'm probably a Santa Claus, but I also have the benefit of looking back at what I had to do when I was in their shoes, compare it to now, and I truthfully don't know if I'd be able to keep up today. I expect them to show up prepared, not do scary stuff in the jet, and have a good attitude. All the things my VT friends have worked hard to instill in them. The tactical stuff we can work out over time. If I'm to be completely frank. Things aren't getting any easier for them, with the reduction of flying hours and syllabus events in the T-45 over the last few years. There is a dirty rumor that they will have their first BFM events ever in an FRS syllabus coming to you soon.

 

[Gatordev]

I'm probably a Santa Claus

If you SOD someone, it's not like you're going to pick up an extra AFTP to do the extra paperwork.

It is a slight against the MPTS grading system as a whole

I know we've been down this road before (countless times), but... MPTS isn't perfect, for sure. But what it did do was standardize the grading criteria much more than the AA/A/BA method. Having taught under both systems, the biggest problem with MPTS I've seen is when IPs don't bother to learn how to use it. That can be for multiple reasons including laziness or thinking you know it all.

Obviously I can't speak to the VFA FRS grading instruction, but the HSM one is a bit of a mess. For FAMs, if you actually graded per the instruction, everyone would SOD their first few flights for having too many BAs. Instead, everyone just grades studs as average, because that's what they are, but that's not how the instruction defines them.

Okay, I'll get off my soap box now.

 

[Swanee]

There is a dirty rumor that they will have their first BFM events ever in an FRS syllabus coming to you soon.

Wow.

Even the AF won't do that.

 

[NoMoreMrNiceGuy]

There is a dirty rumor that they will have their first BFM events ever in an FRS syllabus coming to you soon.

 

[MIDNJAC]

I know we've been down this road before (countless times), but... MPTS isn't perfect, for sure. But what it did do was standardize the grading criteria much more than the AA/A/BA method. Having taught under both systems, the biggest problem with MPTS I've seen is when IPs don't bother to learn how to use it. That can be for multiple reasons including laziness or thinking you know it all.

I agree that in theory, and/or when properly executed, you are right, and it is somewhat less subjective than AA/A/BA was. Bolded part hits the nail on the head. At the end of the day, it is what it is, and no system will be perfect. But I feel for the studs who just got unlucky, when all their buds got the cool reservist IPs who made it rain 5's in some artificially inflated stage, and they got mr new-to-grading active duty guy who probably made a more accurate assessment of performance......but a 3 or 4 happens to be well below average for said stage statistically. That's just one example, but stuff like that.

 

[Gatordev]

Overall, I take your point, and I think we're saying similar things.

but a 3 or 4 happens to be well below average for said stage statistically.

But that's not exactly how it works. It's less about what the average for the stage is (that gets handled when the scores are normalized). It's about how fast the individual makes or exceeds MIF and the number of times it takes them to get there. Keep in the mind that if the grader is Santa Claus...be it with candy or sticks...the scores have a running normalization process going back 50 studs.

I've also had or worked with SELRES that were the opposite of a 5 fairy, even when they didn't know the FTI (a problem we had when I was an IP) or didn't necessarily have the background to make declarations about how people would do beyond Primary (like a P-3 SELRES being an authority on carrier patterns).

 

[sevenhelmet]

(like a P-3 SELRES being an authority on carrier patterns).

Hands down, the worst flight I had in flight school was a “shotgun solo” strike det flight out of El Centro (IP rode in the back of a syllabus solo flight due to winds being out of SNA limits), with a P-3 guy in my back seat. I don’t remember what the mission was (something involving formation flying, but not bombing) and I passed the flight, but he was truly awful to fly with and gave objectively terrible formation flying advice.

I have no earthly idea why a P-3 guy was even teaching in T-45s, much less during a strike det.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Overall, I take your point, and I think we're saying similar things.



But that's not exactly how it works. It's less about what the average for the stage is (that gets handled when the scores are normalized). It's about how fast the individual makes or exceeds MIF and the number of times it takes them to get there. Keep in the mind that if the grader is Santa Claus...be it with candy or sticks...the scores have a running normalization process going back 50 studs.

I've also had or worked with SELRES that were the opposite of a 5 fairy, even when they didn't know the FTI (a problem we had when I was an IP) or didn't necessarily have the background to make declarations about how people would do beyond Primary (like a P-3 SELRES being an authority on carrier patterns).

I'm positive you are much smarter on the subject than I am, so that makes sense. I'd say your point kinda boils down my real beef with the system which is rampant (and probably unintentional) grade inflation. It matters not a whole lot where I fly, everyone is going to some flavor of the same place, aside from FDNF. But I'd say that a very high NSS coming from T-45's isn't in reality, that different from the average. If anything, I'd say the low NSS folks (we don't actually get a ton) are probably better summarized with MPTS, in that like you say, it has accurately assessed the fact it takes them a little longer for the lightbulb to illuminate.

 

[Sponge]

I'm late to the party and a little drunk. So I'll just start out by saying I have not read all the other comments but I will say, NSS is like a helicopter. Black magic and no one knows how it works. Do NOT worry about NSS. The needs of the Navy come first always. I knew a guy who had a high 50 not get P-8's but another buddy got it with a low 50. It's all needs of the Navy and makes no sense. As wild as it seems, you will love wherever you go! The Navy gives you the illusion of choice but they know best!