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COVID-19

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
You know what derails threads worse than posting a link without commentary? Bickering with posters over moderation issues that don’t matter to anyone but you and that poster.
Easy guy, or you may get a PM telling you how you should be getting an OLQ pink sheet.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
Here’s just a link to someone describing a reasoned response to the virus
Why do so many people praise Sweden's response? So far their population fatality rate ranks 5th in the world and is not far from Italy.

The US ranks 8th and is constantly criticized, but Sweden's fatality rate is 25% higher.
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
Why do so many people praise Sweden's response? So far their population fatality rate ranks 5th in the world and is not far from Italy.

The US ranks 8th and is constantly criticized, but Sweden's fatality rate is 25% higher.
For one, because they seem to be pretty much done with the virus. Two, it’s significant that they had similar results to other European nations that took drastic measures, which calls into question the efficacy of lockdowns and school closures.

Also it’s worth noting that two thirds of the COVID attributed deaths there were over 80 years old. 88% over 70.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Why do so many people praise Sweden's response? So far their population fatality rate ranks 5th in the world and is not far from Italy.

The US ranks 8th and is constantly criticized, but Sweden's fatality rate is 25% higher.
I think we can safely call that the “Cuomo Effect”. Needlessly kill thousands, and get lauded for your efforts.

I don’t have a graph in front of me, but one could probably argue that the US fatality rate is also exacerbated by our fantastically high rate of obesity and other very well-known and publicized risk factors. According to Dr. Michael Levitt’s interpretation, this shaves about ten years off our lives compared to Europeans when it comes to covid.

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
For one, because they seem to be pretty much done with the virus. Two, it’s significant that they had similar results to other European nations that took drastic measures, which calls into question the efficacy of lockdowns and school closures.

Also it’s worth noting that two thirds of the COVID attributed deaths there were over 80 years old. 88% over 70.
Now it’s tearing through Australia. Melbourne might be locked down until Christmas. I feel like it’s pretty obvious that lockdowns simply delay the inevitable.

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Why do so many people praise Sweden's response? So far their population fatality rate ranks 5th in the world and is not far from Italy.

The US ranks 8th and is constantly criticized, but Sweden's fatality rate is 25% higher.
Pretty insightful article, and he answers some of your questions.

 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
Here's the JAMA article that the CDC cites in pushing for masks. Key points:

Covering mouths and noses with filtering materials serves 2 purposes: personal protection against inhalation of harmful pathogens and particulates, and source control to prevent exposing others to infectious microbes that may be expelled during respiration. When asked to wear face coverings, many people think in terms of personal protection (@SlickAg that's you). But face coverings are also widely and routinely used as source control. For instance, if given the choice between having surgery performed by a team not wearing some covering over their mouths and noses vs a team that does, almost all patients would reject the former....

...Some have raised concerns that homemade face coverings made from household fabrics may be inferior compared with commercially manufactured products.
Cloth face coverings can substantially limit forward dispersion of exhaled respirations that contain potentially infectious respiratory particles in the 1- to 10-μm range that includes aerosol-sized particles...

That's their way of saying it acts like a JBD.

I get what JAMA puts out, then there is how that ends up being put out by various other sources, and those things aren't equal.
 

BigRed389

Registered User
None
Now it’s tearing through Australia. Melbourne might be locked down until Christmas. I feel like it’s pretty obvious that lockdowns simply delay the inevitable.


Don’t worry I know someone who would love to tell you about New Zealand

Kinda sorta true, but not quite full picture. The real point is whether a country pursues an elimination, or suppression/management, or "fuck it" strategy. Lockdown is just a tool in that strategy.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cou...ia-and-how-would-it-work-20200721-p55e0k.html
Pretty good article comparing/contrasting the approaches and reasons behind why elimination made sense for NZ, but may not make sense for Australia (which by extension for the same reasons, makes even less sense for us, as we are much larger and heterogeneous). Likewise provides pros and cons of a suppression strategy.

My opinion, elimination does make sense if you can realistically pull it off. But we're way too big for it to be an option...and we aren't homogeneous enough (at a local/regional government and cultural level) to support the measures for effective near-elimination style suppression smaller countries or more...authoritarian countries have been able to pull off.
Which leaves us with the Sweden "fuck it" strategy, or continue to ineffectively flail trying to achieve we can't culturally pull off. Or...let the states just run things as they see best.
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot

“Lockdowns made little difference to the number of people who have died from coronavirus, a study has claimed.”

Cliff notes:

“Government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of Covid-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality," the study, published in the Lancet online journal EClinicalMedicine, said.

It added: "Consistent with reported Covid-19 outcome data from Europe, the United States, and China, higher caseloads and overall mortality were associated with comorbidities such as obesity and advanced population age."

And:

“An increased scale of national testing was not associated with the number of critical cases, or deaths per million."
 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
So was their lockdown successful at the beginning, or is it more likely the virus hadn't progressed there yet in any sort of appreciable numbers.

This article leaves out border crossings as a significant source of vectors for the virus. Last I checked, Brownsville ain't exactly a booming metropolis with lots of tourists. Wonder why the author didn't mention this?
 
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