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COVID-19

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
So was their lockdown successful at the beginning, or is it more likely the virus hadn't progressed there yet in any sort of appreciable numbers.

This article leaves out border crossings as a significant source of vectors for the virus. Last I checked, Brownsville ain't exactly a booming metropolis with lots of tourists. Wonder why the author didn't mention this?
Border crossings, somewhat influenced by bailout payments, but mainly societal/demographic factors. Large family gatherings with lots of obese and multigenerational families. At least that’s what people from that area tell me.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
“Valley of the Downs”? What?
Back in 1986 that's what the SNAs in VT-28 (flying T-44s) called the Rio Grande Valley, with all of its airports and overlapping approaches of various flavors. I showed up with an instrument card, already earned in VT-4, thank goodness. In the E2 pipeline we did T2s then multi-engine.

I guess that's not a thing anymore? Damn, I'm old. Had a cool patch back then.

L_ABZ_15175.jpg
 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
It was still called the Valley of the Downs when I went through in 07. Between Brownsville, Macallen, and whatever other god forsaken airport there was down there, you could shoot a consecutive string of 4 or 5 approaches muy rapido. The Bow tie was a favorite of my IPs; having been an IP, I know that it's not because they hated us, they just wanted to get 4 approaches per stud done as quickly as possible.

Screw up one little flip flop switch push and you'd be shooting the VOR to the wrong airport. Unsat, try again tomorrow. Hence, Valley of the Downs.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
So was their lockdown successful at the beginning, or is it more likely the virus hadn't progressed there yet in any sort of appreciable numbers.

This article leaves out border crossings as a significant source of vectors for the virus. Last I checked, Brownsville ain't exactly a booming metropolis with lots of tourists. Wonder why the author didn't mention this?
Nor did the article mention the average age of the patients, or their pre-existing conditions. As mentioned previously, the obesity rates across south Texas, along with the other resultant health issues, are substantial.

As far as people coming across the border for medical treatment, that is, has been, and will be a fact of life in that part of the country. I don’t see why this pandemic would be any different. If they didn’t mention it, it’s probably because it doesn’t match the narrative they’re trying to present.

It’s very unfortunate that this is happening down there. However, I don’t think that it paints a picture of what is happening across the entire state. An eight bed ICU in a hospital in an extremely poor county being full during a global pandemic is as surprising as the sun rising in the East tomorrow morning. Potentially a different line of thinking the article fails to mention would’ve been that instead of throwing themselves a premature victory parade, the county health officials and other local leadership could’ve had the infrastructure in place and already coordinated for outside assistance to be ready for when the virus came. I think they got lulled into a false sense of security like everyone else down there, but those folks get paid the big bucks for a reason.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
There's lots of articles about what's going on down there and why. I just linked to one that talked about the need for triage in one specific hospital.
 
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jackjack

Active Member
Now it’s tearing through Australia. Melbourne might be locked down until Christmas. I feel like it’s pretty obvious that lockdowns simply delay the inevitable.

Hang on Sunshine, we have eradicated covid in most of Australia. What happened in Victoria is the returning overseas travellers held in quarantine. They were supervised by unqualified security. There were bribes, sexual favours an exiting the facility. There then became community spread covid. Through the whole covid crisis the Victorian government has had a poor response and never fully eradicated it in the community. Let's hope they get it right this time. They seem to be peaking at around 400 cases a day. It may not sound much to you, given the situation in America, but it is significant to us
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Hang on Sunshine, we have eradicated covid in most of Australia. What happened in Victoria is the returning overseas travellers held in quarantine. They were supervised by unqualified security. There were bribes, sexual favours an exiting the facility. There then became community spread covid. Through the whole covid crisis the Victorian government has had a poor response and never fully eradicated it in the community. Let's hope they get it right this time. They seem to be peaking at around 400 cases a day. It may not sound much to you, given the situation in America, but it is significant to us
"The rise in new infections came after Australia began relaxing strict containment measures imposed in mid-March."

So this article is incorrect? Also, I'm confused by your statement that covid is eradicated there. Don't something like a third of Australians live in the two cities that are currently having outbreaks? I mean area-wise it's insignificant but population wise it doesn't seem that way.

 

BigRed389

Registered User
None
"The rise in new infections came after Australia began relaxing strict containment measures imposed in mid-March."

So this article is incorrect? Also, I'm confused by your statement that covid is eradicated there. Don't something like a third of Australians live in the two cities that are currently having outbreaks? I mean area-wise it's insignificant but population wise it doesn't seem that way.


COVID was almost eliminated using an all out lockdown policy and limiting overseas arrivals. Daily new cases nationwide were hitting zero in late June early July.

Overseas arrivals that were authorized to return were put in strict 2 week quarantines. Think CONUS to Hawaii type quarantine.

Unfortunately, some dumbasses were hired to enforce the quarantine hotels in Melbourne...as jack already pointed out.

So...right around the time elimination was almost achieved nationally(big picture), and restrictions were easing up (creating conditions where community spread was more easily possible), a second wave outbreak (little picture - local) was created by overseas arrivals.

So the timing of easing lockdown and a reoccurrence of the spread was rather a poor coincidence.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
COVID was almost eliminated using an all out lockdown policy and limiting overseas arrivals. Daily new cases nationwide were hitting zero in late June early July.

Overseas arrivals that were authorized to return were put in strict 2 week quarantines. Think CONUS to Hawaii type quarantine.

Unfortunately, some dumbasses were hired to enforce the quarantine hotels in Melbourne...as jack already pointed out.

So...right around the time elimination was almost achieved nationally(big picture), and restrictions were easing up (creating conditions where community spread was more easily possible), a second wave outbreak (little picture - local) was created by overseas arrivals.

So the timing of easing lockdown and a reoccurrence of the spread was rather a poor coincidence.
Right. But I think this is just more fuel on the fire for the “lockdowns don’t work” camp. There is inevitably a breach.

I liken it to teaching abstinence-only birth control. Sounds good on paper, but it goes directly against human nature.
 

BigRed389

Registered User
None
Right. But I think this is just more fuel on the fire for the “lockdowns don’t work” camp. There is inevitably a breach.

I liken it to teaching abstinence-only birth control. Sounds good on paper, but it goes directly against human nature.

Or...it's not that simple, and they do "work" depending on what you're trying to get them to do.

Simply saying they don't work without context to the greater strategy being applied doesn't make sense.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Or...it's not that simple, and they do "work" depending on what you're trying to get them to do.

Simply saying they don't work without context to the greater strategy being applied doesn't make sense.
You’re absolutely correct. If you lockdown an entire population, don’t allow anyone (legally) into your country without a 14 day quarantine plus multiple negative tests, shut down education systems, destroy the economy, and make everyone wear a mask when they venture out for the bare essentials of food and medicine, and do all of these actions indefinitely, lockdowns will be very successful.

Otherwise, it would seem that, to paraphrase Jeff Goldblum, the virus finds a way.


Another article predicting that lockdowns wouldn’t work. This dude is very smart and has been right about a lot of what’s happened thus far.

 

FinkUFreaky

Well-Known Member
pilot
COVID was almost eliminated using an all out lockdown policy and limiting overseas arrivals. Daily new cases nationwide were hitting zero in late June early July.

Overseas arrivals that were authorized to return were put in strict 2 week quarantines. Think CONUS to Hawaii type quarantine.

Unfortunately, some dumbasses were hired to enforce the quarantine hotels in Melbourne...as jack already pointed out.

So...right around the time elimination was almost achieved nationally(big picture), and restrictions were easing up (creating conditions where community spread was more easily possible), a second wave outbreak (little picture - local) was created by overseas arrivals.

So the timing of easing lockdown and a reoccurrence of the spread was rather a poor coincidence.
Maybe the people that hired the "dumbasses" were the true dumbasses? That'd be my take. But then you'd have someone in the government to blame..
 

BigRed389

Registered User
None
You’re absolutely correct. If you lockdown an entire population, don’t allow anyone (legally) into your country without a 14 day quarantine plus multiple negative tests, shut down education systems, destroy the economy, and make everyone wear a mask when they venture out for the bare essentials of food and medicine, and do all of these actions indefinitely, lockdowns will be very successful.

Otherwise, it would seem that, to paraphrase Jeff Goldblum, the virus finds a way.


Another article predicting that lockdowns wouldn’t work. This dude is very smart and has been right about a lot of what’s happened thus far.


Maybe?
You're still kind of missing the point though, lockdown is just a tool. It is supposed to deliver a result - reduce infection spread rate/speed.
That result still needs to be part of a broader strategy. Either elimination, suppression, or...Sweden.

Australia appears to have played it by ear...they applied lockdown quickly (they were lucky here in being one of the last developed nations affected) aiming for suppression (to buy time to put in the management measures that were successful in NE Asia), but because it was going so well, they started thinking elimination was going to be a possibility.

Elimination is binary...it either works (you get to zero) or you don't. This is probably too hard for most nations to every accomplish, and I'll go with flat out impossible for us...it would've been tough even if we had caught it early, and now we're too far along for it to be remotely feasible. In that approach, yes, the virus finds a way. Good luck to New Zealand, as they've likely got the best chance of making it work.

Suppression is a sliding scale of success...you can still have it "work" without getting to zero.
What seems to be something many countries are struggling with is adjusting that sliding scale to changing conditions. Or to put it another way, how to come out of full lockdown in a way that isn't just a complete gamble that the infection rate won't just runaway again.

Maybe the people that hired the "dumbasses" were the true dumbasses? That'd be my take. But then you'd have someone in the government to blame..

Oh they're blaming the government plenty. You would think accepting bribes from people in quarantine to release them early should be one of those obvious things not to do but...
Melbourne also took a different approach from the rest of the country...other states used Federal police/military assistance to oversee quarantine operations (police/military supervision of contract security). Victoria/Melbourne did the opposite, which is ironic, because their state Premier (governor) is a China loving pinko commie (obviously kidding - but they're basically a Blue state).
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
You’re absolutely correct. If you lockdown an entire population, don’t allow anyone (legally) into your country without a 14 day quarantine plus multiple negative tests, shut down education systems, destroy the economy, and make everyone wear a mask when they venture out for the bare essentials of food and medicine, and do all of these actions indefinitely, lockdowns will be very successful.

Otherwise, it would seem that, to paraphrase Jeff Goldblum, the virus finds a way.


Another article predicting that lockdowns wouldn’t work. This dude is very smart and has been right about a lot of what’s happened thus far.

There was a news article about a study that was showing that the lockdowns really only prevented the hospitals from being over whelmed with COVID patients and that infections and death were just spread out over a longer period of time, I am still trying to find it as I closed the wrong tab, some people here may have better Google skills than I do, the study did have some controversy which is pretty much like most COVID studies right now.
 
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