You’re absolutely correct. If you lockdown an entire population, don’t allow anyone (legally) into your country without a 14 day quarantine plus multiple negative tests, shut down education systems, destroy the economy, and make everyone wear a mask when they venture out for the bare essentials of food and medicine, and do all of these actions indefinitely, lockdowns will be very successful.
Otherwise, it would seem that, to paraphrase Jeff Goldblum, the virus finds a way.
Coronavirus cases have surged in several areas thought to have the virus under control, including parts of South Korea, Australia and the US.
www.newscientist.com
Another article predicting that lockdowns wouldn’t work. This dude is very smart and has been right about a lot of what’s happened thus far.
Coronavirus lockdowns may have cost more lives than they saved, according to a Nobel laureate who accurately predicted when China would peak in the crisis. Stanford University biophysicist Michael …
www.google.com
Maybe?
You're still kind of missing the point though, lockdown is just a tool. It is supposed to deliver a result - reduce infection spread rate/speed.
That result still needs to be part of a broader strategy. Either elimination, suppression, or...Sweden.
Australia appears to have played it by ear...they applied lockdown quickly (they were lucky here in being one of the last developed nations affected) aiming for suppression (to buy time to put in the management measures that were successful in NE Asia), but because it was going so well, they started thinking elimination was going to be a possibility.
Elimination is binary...it either works (you get to zero) or you don't. This is probably too hard for most nations to every accomplish, and I'll go with flat out impossible for us...it would've been tough even if we had caught it early, and now we're too far along for it to be remotely feasible. In that approach, yes, the virus finds a way. Good luck to New Zealand, as they've likely got the best chance of making it work.
Suppression is a sliding scale of success...you can still have it "work" without getting to zero.
What seems to be something many countries are struggling with is adjusting that sliding scale to changing conditions. Or to put it another way, how to come out of full lockdown in a way that isn't just a complete gamble that the infection rate won't just runaway again.
Maybe the people that hired the "dumbasses" were the true dumbasses? That'd be my take. But then you'd have someone in the government to blame..
Oh they're blaming the government plenty. You would think accepting bribes from people in quarantine to release them early should be one of those obvious things not to do but...
Melbourne also took a different approach from the rest of the country...other states used Federal police/military assistance to oversee quarantine operations (police/military supervision of contract security). Victoria/Melbourne did the opposite, which is ironic, because their state Premier (governor) is a China loving pinko commie (obviously kidding - but they're basically a Blue state).