Do you feel yourself doing mental gymnastics? Just curious.
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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
The problem is the PCR thing tests for the virus, including leftover chunks of it (RNA). We need to test for contagiousness. The tests I mentioned upthread address that issue.
AAAS
What’s super unfortunate about that is a lot of American blood was spilled and lives were lost in order to keep Australia out of Japanese hands during WW2.
The only mental gymnastics I’m doing is trying to figure out why you quoted my post twice.
The PCR test is WAY too sensitive. We know that now. It picks up dead virus as well as live virus. So the time and effort collectively spent on everyone who needed to go home and quarantine and contact trace was most likely unnecessary. Did some people need to? Yes.
But our country’s whole response was predicated on models now known to be untrue and an overly sensitive test that doesn’t differentiate between live virus (aka going to spread) and dead virus (probably not going to spread). And before we start talking about asymptomatic spread, St. Fauci of Washington himself said that in all pandemics studied by man, asymptomatic spread has never been a factor.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
The best is when the news sounds alarmist over asymptomatic cases.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
I think that the models are reasonably accurate.
Hopefully we learn a few things from this pandemic:
1) We need to foster a culture of staying home when sick, not powering through it. The economic relief bills should have focused on increasing paid sick time vice blanket writing people checks. I would love to see some kind of federal legislation that guarantees unlimited paid sick days a year, and that includes days to stay home with sick children under 12. Especially needed for part time and 'unskilled' labor jobs.
2) We need a more targeted response to isolate the high risk portion of the population rather than simply shutting it all down. Similar to above, I would have liked to see economic stimulus focused on compensating businesses for paying high risk workers to stay at home. For entertainment, advertise the risk, and if old Aunt Ethyl wants to risk her life going to a matinee, well, that's her right.
3) There's a lot of fat that can be cut from the way we were doing business in general, both government and civilian. But live, in-person education isn't one of those things.
You mean, “15 cases, going to 1?”
“It will magically disappear in the summer?”
In June, someone said “...fading away. It’s going to fade away.”
It has been fading away. The hospitalizations and deaths haven’t been keeping up with the cases. So either it’s not as deadly as we thought, or the test is way too sensitive and is picking up too many cases. Take your pick.
As far as predictions that didn’t pan out, I’m not sure you’re the best choice to be calling out anyone.
How many hospitalizations have there been since school opened back up? And also, what’s the projected budget shortfall from the football season being cancelled?
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I don’t think the ICL model that our initial lockdown response was based on proved to be valid. I’m not sure if the parameters, but I have a hard time believing the models properly forecast the risk being being many magnitudes higher depending on the age of the person infected. And we know it targets certain co-morbidities that seem to stem from metabolic issues. We didn’t know all those things in March. And if we did, perhaps the governors of NY and NJ wouldn’t have been so quick to send so many old people back into their nursing homes from the hospital.
Furthermore, we don’t really need any more models. We have actual data now with which to shape and guide our policies.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, but I don’t see how we can objectively say that we as a nation did not absolutely fall prey to hysteria.
“The graph of Florida’s cases and deaths looks very similar to Farr’s law, right down to the ~21-day lag between the peaks in cases and deaths, making normal behavior of viruses a more likely explanation for the rise and fall of cases/deaths than the behavior of the population.
Dr. Lauzardo and our local politicians seem to feel that they have to do something to defeat the pandemic, and worse, we must all be forced to do the things they have decided are necessary, even if there’s no evidence that they do anything at all. The downsides of their mandates, including closed businesses, suicides, overdoses, domestic abuse, and missed medical care, are never mentioned except when local governments have federal CARES Act money to hand out to victims of their policies.”
alachuachronicle.com
Dr. Lauzardo and our local politicians seem to feel that they have to do something to defeat the pandemic, and worse, we must all be forced to do the things they have decided are necessary, even if there’s no evidence that they do anything at all. The downsides of their mandates, including closed businesses, suicides, overdoses, domestic abuse, and missed medical care, are never mentioned except when local governments have federal CARES Act money to hand out to victims of their policies.”
Is the rise and fall of COVID in Florida “inexplicable”? - Alachua Chronicle
Jennifer Cabrera writes that normal virus behavior explains the rise and fall in COVID cases and deaths better than masks or mobility.
alachuachronicle.com
You’re kidding, right? I’ve been on-and-on from the beginning.
I’m freaking Nostradamus compared to the “White House Official” that said it would miraculously disappear this summer. Who said we had it under control in March. That guy should be fired. What an idiot.
So if you knew it would be around for months, in spite of our preventative measures, then:
- shutting down the economy for more than 2 weeks was the wrong tactical move, and
- we should probably just open the economy and schools fully, and let it run its course.
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
They knew all of those things. They also knew that the PFR was estimated to be around 0.1%, +/- 0.05%.
Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus
Fauci's comments underscore just how far away we might be from the projected peak of the outbreak. As of early Sunday afternoon, there were 125,000 cases in America and nearly 2,200 deaths.
www.npr.org
So if they knew these things were going to happen all along, why did we lockdown to begin with?They knew all of those things. They also knew that the PFR was estimated to be around 0.1%, +/- 0.05%.
Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus
Fauci's comments underscore just how far away we might be from the projected peak of the outbreak. As of early Sunday afternoon, there were 125,000 cases in America and nearly 2,200 deaths.
“When asked if it is the right time to begin relaxing some of the social distancing measures, Fauci said not until the curve of new infections starts flattening out.
He refused to guess when exactly that may occur.
"The virus itself determines that timetable," Fauci said.“
So...NPIs do or do not work? He makes it sound like the virus will follow Farr’s Laws