What color is the sky in your world...?
To make my point a little more clearly, and you still might not be able to relate: if you take a ready room full of young dudes who have volunteered to do some crazy dangerous shit for lousy pay, and are away from home for months at a time - and then ask them to say please, thank you, shoot instead of shit, darn it instead of fuck, and roll Nat Geo documentaries for roll'ems - dudes are gonna start taking long hard looks at the value of staying in.
This may come as a shock to you, but a lot of us are not so enamored with the "work" side of this job that we wouldn't consider leaving. Go scroll through any number of threads on this website and you'll find guys weighing their options because of low job satisfaction, pay, decreasing benefits, deployments, fitrep 500, shitty spineless leadership, etc... For a large chunk of Naval Aviators below the rank of O-5, its is the camaraderie and ready room life that keeps the job unique and enjoyable. Its a big part of what keeps dudes putting on the green pajamas instead of a shirt and tie. The O-4 > 10 pay isn't making the night traps worth it - and if leadership continues to take the enjoyable parts of this job away, they'll have less people they need to worry about paying.
That's a valid prediction. However, even with the CAPT Honors affair, I don't think that we're anywhere near the tipping point yet. A couple of reasons for this:
1) What I've seen. Probably every VP JO at some point says to him/herself (or even out loud), "This is the shittiest job ever. No way I'm coming back." And while we don't have to deal with carrier deployments, we also don't get alot of the "mission accomplished" satisfaction that comes from actually fighting a war. And yet there are still guys lining up to be department heads.
2) Lots of people waiting in the wings. Are they still weeding them out with higher test-score cutoffs at API? That's a pipeline that can easily open up again.
3) I read a WaPo article a few years back about the impact that free PRK is having at the Naval Academy. All the smart guys who before would have been NPQ for aviator due to eyesight and would have been pushed to other communities now have the opportunity to fly. Ergo, lots more talented competition for aviation slots (the article mentioned that the biggest negative impact was on the sub community). I don't have first-hand knowledge of this, but it makes sense and is somewhat confirmed, again, by tighter cutoffs at API, etc...
4) A detailer at a brief I attended showed a pie chart with percentages of staff jobs filled by different communities. Aviation was far and away leading the pack (I don't remember the exact percentages, but I do remember that we greatly exceeded our quota), meaning, among other things, that aviators are staying in (detailer's interpretation).
5) (This one's gonna hurt a little bit, but truth often does) Big Navy just replaced a CVN CO within weeks of a deployment and the carrier still went. And will likely have a "successful" deployment, because no matter how much people grumble and bitch, they're still professionals who are going to do their job. If they can replace a CVN CO, they can replace you.
6) Bottom line, there's no Naval Aviators Union and it comes down to the individuals. Most might not like what happened to CAPT Honors/the long slow trend of PCness, but my prediction is that most guys, when forced to choose between gay jokes and the $3+ million in pension benefits/healthcare for the rest of your life, will decide that they can indeed say please and thank you. And for the ones who can't, there's no shortage of replacements. Might there be a drop-off in quality? Maybe...but even if that happened, it wouldn't be noticed for a decade and the Navy probably won't come knocking on your door, hat in hand, begging forgiveness and asking you to bring your badassery back to the fleet.