No worries. You not be able to offer anything in the way of meaningful discourse is sort of a thing around here.
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Europe under extreme duress
- Thread starter Randy Daytona
- Start date
India has increasingly been concerned with China's antics as they affect India. They have a Chinese port sitting right off their coast and China has been building a lot of infrastructure (to benefit China) throughout local Indian trade partners (Iran and AFG). India is also concerned about the Straits of Malaca, due to trade.
India, while not able to throw Australian dollars at the problem yet, has been increasing their capability via US and other non-Russian procurement, much of it focused on sea control. They may not be our bestest buddy, but there's a reason why they're interested in being a part of the Quad and why there are multiple Indian FMS cases going.
I agree, Taiwan isn't their concern, and India isn't an ally, but a partner. My original post (worded poorly) was thinking (out loud) about the bigger picture. If Taiwan kicks off, what's going to happen in and around SEA? Australia is probably going to get involved, along with us, and there could be at least some exchanges outside of the Taiwan area. If that spreads over to the western peninsula and the straits, then India may have more interest.
But I agree, the focus for them will be Indian interests.
China’s biggest source of oil and natural gas is the Middle East which transits by India. China does not have enough of a blue water navy to protect the tankers giving India the ability to severely hurt China.
That said, it was mentioned above due to demographics that China is facing a now (this decade) or never moment to take Taiwan, much like Russia’s faced a now or never moment to take Ukraine. My bet is China will either invade or blockade the island.
Again, this is outside my wheel house, but it seems to me that if China takes action against Taiwan, they are choosing to give up trade with the US and likely Europe, Australia, and others, in exchange for Taiwan. Not to mention potentially inciting a war with us that could turn into WW3. Do you think that is worth it to them? I don't understand why so many people are convinced they are going to make that trade.
Same reason Putin invaded Ukraine even though it made no sense to us. Because they think it’s theirs, and they feel provoked.
I think China military action against Taiwan is very possible, but not a foregone conclusion. Similar to Russia, it would take a provocation of some kind. But what provocation, who would be provoking, and whether we’d hear about it publicly is anyone’s guess.
UH-60A's showing up in Ukrainian service:
www.thedrive.com
UH-60 Black Hawk Unexpectedly Appears In Ukrainian Military Service
An apparent former U.S. Army UH-60A has appeared in Ukrainian military service, with the shadowy Defense Intelligence directorate.
www.thedrive.com
I saw that Ace bird at Heli Expo last year. The rep said they got it down to around 10k dry weight!UH-60A's showing up in Ukrainian service:
UH-60 Black Hawk Unexpectedly Appears In Ukrainian Military Service
An apparent former U.S. Army UH-60A has appeared in Ukrainian military service, with the shadowy Defense Intelligence directorate.
That’s got to be a hot rod of a helo. The UH-60L’s we had at USNTPS were heavier than that, and they still climbed like a scalded monkey.
Good question.
China has The Century of Humiliation as part of its collective consciousness which could very well over-ride factors such as profit. (Interesting article: https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/chinas-never-again-mentality/.). If this is the case, this might be the decade for action as the demographic problems mentioned previously would lead one to believe China is reaching peak relative power to the US and strike now, especially as the US commits more resources to Ukraine.
Everyone has different keys they are watching, for me it is if China will start to openly supply arms to Russia in defiance to the West.
I think they're waiting to see if we're actually dumb enough to default on our debt first.
WRT economic dis-incentives for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, I haven't seen mentioned here the "Silicone Shield". I only just got informed when TSMC began building a huge plant in Phoenix (INTEL's backyard), and my son, an engineer in new product development and testing at INTEL schooled me. China is highly dependent on Taiwan's TSMC for their chips. More over, of the most highly advanced chips, mostly US designed, TSMC manufactures over 90% of them via license. China simply can not supply enough of it's own chips to build weapons, ships, aircraft or intelligence systems to make war, let alone keep their economy afloat suppling consumer goods to the west. An interruption or embargo of chips to China would be more debilitating than oil has been to Russia.
Additional considerations, whatever disruption the loss of Taiwan chips would have on China, if the TSMC plants were destroyed in combat or scuttled, the disruption would be world wide. If the Chinese take Taiwan without destroying the TSMC plants, they then control the manufacturing and distribution of the most advanced chips in the world, because the US designed chips are not made hardly anywhere else.
www.stimson.org
www.reuters.com
Additional considerations, whatever disruption the loss of Taiwan chips would have on China, if the TSMC plants were destroyed in combat or scuttled, the disruption would be world wide. If the Chinese take Taiwan without destroying the TSMC plants, they then control the manufacturing and distribution of the most advanced chips in the world, because the US designed chips are not made hardly anywhere else.
Semiconductors and Taiwan’s “Silicon Shield” • Stimson Center
Taiwan’s global dominance of semiconductor fabrication has upset the status and the dynamics of U.S.-China competition
www.stimson.org
Taiwan chip industry emerges as battlefront in U.S.-China showdown
The island dominates production of chips powering advanced civilian and military technologies. If conflict erupted, its fabrication plants would be in jeopardy.
I prefer "Natural" shields.
If that's true, and I'm sure it is, then I'd bet step 1 if China invades is destroying all IP and manufacturing capability at those plants.WRT economic dis-incentives for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, I haven't seen mentioned here the "Silicone Shield". I only just got informed when TSMC began building a huge plant in Phoenix (INTEL's backyard), and my son, an engineer in new product development and testing at INTEL schooled me. China is highly dependent on Taiwan's TSMC for their chips. More over, of the most highly advanced chips, mostly US designed, TSMC manufactures over 90% of them via license. China simply can not supply enough of it's own chips to build weapons, ships, aircraft or intelligence systems to make war, let alone keep their economy afloat suppling consumer goods to the west. An interruption or embargo of chips to China would be more debilitating than oil has been to Russia.
Additional considerations, whatever disruption the loss of Taiwan chips would have on China, if the TSMC plants were destroyed in combat or scuttled, the disruption would be world wide. If the Chinese take Taiwan without destroying the TSMC plants, they then control the manufacturing and distribution of the most advanced chips in the world, because the US designed chips are not made hardly anywhere else.
Semiconductors and Taiwan’s “Silicon Shield” • Stimson Center
Taiwan’s global dominance of semiconductor fabrication has upset the status and the dynamics of U.S.-China competition
Taiwan chip industry emerges as battlefront in U.S.-China showdown
The island dominates production of chips powering advanced civilian and military technologies. If conflict erupted, its fabrication plants would be in jeopardy.