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Europe under extreme duress
- Thread starter Randy Daytona
- Start date
U.S. now (publicly) preparing to send F-16s to Ukraine.
Incorrect
(Publicly).
No, show me an article that says the US is going to transfer vipers to Ukraine.
Yes
Kinda
I still think the fixation on F-16's is a big waste of time, money and effort that can be put to much better use. While F-16's are better than what the Ukrainians currently have they aren't going to provide a huge leap in capability, especially as Ukraine's western allies have gradually expanded the capabilities of Ukraine's current combat air arm.
It is also amusing to read the very optimistic timelines to get these aircraft operational, even some folks who should know better seem to be living in fanatasyland when they speak of a few months.
It is also amusing to read the very optimistic timelines to get these aircraft operational, even some folks who should know better seem to be living in fanatasyland when they speak of a few months.
I think time suffers from inflation just like currency. Governments and militaries could have and did do similar things in short times during WWII.
Now it takes about as long as Hitler invading Poland to V-J day to get a CVN through RCOH…
While I have been skeptical of providing high end aircraft as a panacea to that fight, knowing the training piece will take time, I was reminded yesterday that NAWDC trains Rhino/Growler pilots to fly the F-16 in just a couple months… all in house. That doesn’t equal proficiency in employing all the jet’s capabilities, but I think the transition will be less of a factor than many think.
As redair, sure... especially since those pilots have done that mission before in other platforms, and have significant high-performance jet experience.
What's the experience level of the pilots Ukraine is looking to train? Is it a transition from other platforms such as the MiG-29, or are they flying a fourth-gen fighter for the first time?
The devil is in the details. Even a "simple" airplane like the T-6 requires a lot of back-end logistics and expertise that are specific to the airplane. Just getting out of the chocks in a wartime environment takes a lot of effort with something new, and a lot of potential pitfalls. Not saying they can't do it, but it's not the same as spooling up an organically-manned Patriot missile battery or tank battalion.
Sure, but we’ve seen quite a bit of western hardware, like HARM, for example, integrated quite rapidly. My presumption is that the F-16 pilots will come from their cadre of MiG-29 folks. It won’t happen overnight, but I think this fight will persist long enough to gain some benefit.
One of the articles I read quoted someone saying that this is also for the long-term defense of Ukraine, as they will need a permanent strong military now.
The real question, which isn't answerable here, is how much their current TTPs will be effective in the new platform or need changing. Sure, you can get someone a NATOPS qual in months, but after that, it's teaching a bunch of foreign Cat-Others to fight.
Dunno if any of the folks here with Viper time can offer any insight within OPSEC sanity.
My only viper time was like seven helmet mentioned. Red Air and a lot of BFM. But there is also a big difference between the Block 15's we had then, and what these theoretical Ukrainian jets might be (I presume at least Block 30/32C/D's?). To Brett's point though, it isn't like it would have been some brain explosion to start practicing GP dive deliveries or strafing in it (or punching buttons for space bombs in a newer Viper for that matter)......we just were explicitly forbidden from doing so in the SOP. IIRC the strafe we use in the FA-18 was ripped off from the CAF Viper dudes, for example. For what they might use them for, I don't think it would be a huge stretch for those guys to figure out how to best use them, sans US tactical manuals. However I also don't think the F-16 would bring the change that some people think it will, at least beyond perhaps some better capabilities at the tactical level. If they can increase sortie rate, and bombs thrown accurately downrange, yeah, maybe that would be a little more meaningful.
Most of the focus is on the piloting stuff, which makes sense coming from aviators, but that's not where the potential delays occur. If we use NAVAIR and FMS as a model, you'd be lucky to get a "NATOPS"/-1 (whatever it's called) in 6 months. NTTP/NTRPs may take a year to get released. Parts? Good luck on getting a complete PUK without a 12 month or more lead time. And of course not all the parts are the same (enough said there).
I wonder if this potential/theoretical transfer wouldn't be more like an OEM sale, but with the typical FMS logistics train behind it being provided by the OEM (and augmented with uniformed flight training). That seems like the only way to do this in a timely manner. That ain't going to be cheap, but I guess that's good for the economy...as long as the U.S. can actually pay the bill 6 days from now.
I wonder if this potential/theoretical transfer wouldn't be more like an OEM sale, but with the typical FMS logistics train behind it being provided by the OEM (and augmented with uniformed flight training). That seems like the only way to do this in a timely manner. That ain't going to be cheap, but I guess that's good for the economy...as long as the U.S. can actually pay the bill 6 days from now.