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Europe under extreme duress

Hotdogs said:
I can’t expect that is going to go over well.
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That was irony, pretty sarcastic I have to tell. Present Kremlin snakepit is something new: not a single one with good industry or true business experience, nor noble roots. No wonder the turf battles may be cruel and bloody in time of evident crisis
 
Gotta say I'm nothing less than impressed with the Ukranian resistance so far.

Secondly, the overt willingness of Europe to funnel weapons to Ukraine. I think Europe is done playing soft. Here's hoping some Russian oligarch yachts, London/NYC/Vancouver condos, and private jets end up impounded.
 
Reports of former US SOF on the ground in the Ukraine. No way of verifying if true but the pictures I saw, they ‘looked’ the part in terms of gear and weaponry and are reported to have inflicted serious damage to Russian formations. Of course, it could be the Ukrainians that were trained/equipped by US SOF.

It does beg the question, what happens if a US dude gets rolled up by the Russians?
 
Pretty sure they won't - Ukranian guards will defend them till the end: we know this is equal to defending of our soil. But how quickly the Cold War is back in full mode...
 
Well Ukrainian forces it seems have destroyed multiple Russian vehicle columns. I've heard (have no way of verifying) that the Ukrainians have even learned a tactic of leave Russian armored vehicles alone, then attack the very vulnerable fuel supply trucks that come up after, then when the tanks and APCs that were let past run out of fuel, the Ukrainians get free armored vehicles. Also read that some Russian families now very upset at seeing their own loved ones among those captured by the Ukrainians.
 
Random8145 said:
Wow, German Chancellor now promising to significantly up defense spending, to exceed the 2% GDP for NATO spending continuously, both for Germany's allies and friends and for Germany's own security. Apparently the invasion of Ukraine has really shocked them.
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The invasion has shocked many Europeans, as many didn't really quite believe the guy and all his rich oligarch friends who have been spending so much money the past few years on their fellow travelers and sycophants, sorry...friends, in Europe along with buying a huge pile of luxury European goods and real estate would do such a horrible thing. Many also didn't really believe our intelligence either, after Iraq who can blame many of them who don't know better? So yeah, up until the point when bullets and missiles started flying they really didn't want to believe.

An important thing to note is that one of the pillars of Germany's foreign policy for over 50 years now has been closer economic ties, including energy, with Russia will help better ensure peace in Europe. With so much money at stake it would give the Russian leadership and elite pause to do anything so rash as to start or support a war, just because. This has worked well for the Germans and has paid them handsome dividends for decades, literally, but it finally got to the point last week where it didn't work anymore. Removing that pillar has shaken the German political establishment and the effect is showing now.

On top of the Chancellor's proposal to enshrine in law the 2% GDP defense spending he also proposed a one-time €100 billion plus up of the defense spending. €100 billion is double the average recent German defense budget, to say that is significant is an understatement and not just in German. If you watch the video of his address when he proposes that to the Bundestag you can hear audible gasps, a pause with a few boos followed by some cheering and applause.
 
Couple of smart takes on the financial attacks being undertaken.

From Michael Pettis

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498294651190910978

helps clarify the global financial implications of the Russian crisis and on the effect it may have on the willingness of China, Russia, etc. to hold dollars in the future.

and Adam Tooze

adamtooze.substack.com

Chartbook #89 Russia's financial meltdown and the global dollar system.

The Western sanctions on the Russian financial system announced over the weekend are doing their work on Monday.
adamtooze.substack.com adamtooze.substack.com

How will global demand for dollars as a safe haven, mesh with the Fed’s desire to tighten policy to counter inflation? Put the two together and you have the makings of a crushing dollar squeeze. Even before the crisis became acute there was worry about how the Fed could square the domestic priority of price stability with the stability of the global dollar system. That balancing act just got even harder.
 
Yesterday (Feb. 28), Ukraine took out five Russian planes apparently. S-300 missiles took out three of them, and Ukrainian fighter jets took out two Russian fighters. Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners used a BUK-M1 anti-aircraft system to shoot down a Russian helicopter and one cruise missile as well. Do the Russians really suck this badly? I mean Ukraine only has like a $4 billion defense budget!? I am hoping against hope that they kick the crap out of that giant armored column heading towards Kyiv. They still have air superiority which is a major advantage. And of course they aren't going to publicly announce what they're planning for that column.
 
Random8145 said:
Yesterday (Feb. 28), Ukraine took out five Russian planes apparently. S-300 missiles took out three of them, and Ukrainian fighter jets took out two Russian fighters. Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners used a BUK-M1 anti-aircraft system to shoot down a Russian helicopter and one cruise missile as well. Do the Russians really suck this badly? I mean Ukraine only has like a $4 billion defense budget!? I am hoping against hope that they kick the crap out of that giant armored column heading towards Kyiv. They still have air superiority which is a major advantage. And of course they aren't going to publicly announce what they're planning for that column.
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Have these numbers been verified by any external sources? Pretty remarkable if true.
 
Random8145 said:
Do the Russians really suck this badly? I mean Ukraine only has like a $4 billion defense budget!?
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Poor operational design. As fucked up and painful as U.S. targeting processes go - We’re actually pretty good at the joint targeting cycle supported by a roboust and very capable cadre of fires professionals. At least when compared by modern standards - and especially when compared to Russia.
 
Hotdogs said:
Poor operational design. As fucked up and painful as U.S. targeting processes go - We’re actually pretty good at the joint targeting cycle supported by a roboust and very capable cadre of fires professionals. At least when compared by modern standards - and especially when compared to Russia.
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Forgive my ignorance, what is the joint targeting cycle and "fires" professionals? You mean our ability to shoot at and hit targets? Some of the things I have been talking about is for example how the Russian tanks and armored vehicles have seemed to be so vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-tank weapons. One would think the Russians would be aware of such and know how to counter them.

Also, curious of people's thoughts, but should we openly supply the Ukrainians with arms and supplies or do so strictly covertly. My off-the-top thinking was openly do so, so as to let Putin know that we are not cowering in fear and being timid about him, but also that we are not going so far as sending in U.S. forces in any capacity.
 
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