Europe under extreme duress

[sevenhelmet]

Forgive my ignorance, what is the joint targeting cycle and "fires" professionals? You mean our ability to shoot at and hit targets? Some of the things I have been talking about is for example how the Russian tanks and armored vehicles have seemed to be so vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-tank weapons. One would think the Russians would be aware of such and know how to counter them.

Also, curious of people's thoughts, but should we openly supply the Ukrainians with arms and supplies or do so strictly covertly. My off-the-top thinking was openly do so, so as to let Putin know that we are not cowering in fear and being timid about him, but also that we are not going so far as sending in U.S. forces in any capacity.

You really should Google "Joint Targeting Cycle". Warfare is a lot more than hitting what you're shooting at. Who and what we shoot at in war, and what we shoot it with, is critical to tactical and strategic outcomes. Also important is what you don't shoot. Fires professionals (such as Targeteers, etc.) can make their careers enabling a lot of that.

We are openly supplying the Ukraine with arms for its defense, and have been since before the invasion. Why should we be covert about it? I'm also fairly certain I've read that POTUS has said we aren't committing troops (nor should we).

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

But I suppose three-letter agency is on place and thus plays for all US leagues. At least Russians whine about that in soc media

 

[Mos]

But I suppose three-letter agency is on place and thus plays for all US leagues. At least Russians whine about that in soc media

Their own three letter agency would say all is fair.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Their own 3-letter yesterday anonimously dropped to UA forces a pretty good targeting for Chechen "zonder" battalion which had been slashed limb from limb as a result. "Agencies", all of them, live in parallel reality.

 

[Bad_Karma_1310]

Their own 3-letter yesterday anonimously dropped to UA forces a pretty good targeting for Chechen "zonder" battalion which had been slashed limb from limb as a result. "Agencies", all of them, live in parallel reality.

I’ll believe it when I see it. But it tracks with Ukrainian reports of elements in the FSB passing other information to the Ukrainians such as burning an assassination attempt against Zelensky.

Seems possibly some elements inside Russia are using the invasion to settle old scores.

 

[FloridaDad]

I believe it when I see it. But it tracks with Ukrainian reports of elements in the FSB passing other information to the Ukrainians such as burning an assassination attempt against Zelensky.

Seems possibly some elements inside Russia are using the invasion to settle old scores.

I’m wondering what repercussions that may have inside Russia. If their intelligence agency tipped off Ukraine then there’s clearly some major fracturing going on.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Seems possibly some elements inside Russia are using the invasion to settle old scores.

Some Russians state that is the chief aim of "operation", otherwise it is impossible to throw Putin out. If so, some inside Russian intel community are even more Machiavellian than avid Machiavelist Putin. Suppose this is someone from counter-espionage service which from Soviet time swims in much more tricky stuff than relatively simple spy service Putin himself belongs to.

 

[Flash]

Poor operational design. As fucked up and painful as U.S. targeting processes go - We’re actually pretty good at the joint targeting cycle supported by a robust and very capable cadre of fires professionals. At least when compared by modern standards - and especially when compared to Russia.

Having done the AOC thing part-time for almost a decade I can say that while it is by no means perfect our process works decently well for getting the job done, albeit with lots of room for improvement, I would hope so after doing it for over 30 years straight now. At least we have gotten past the stage where we had to fly 'Miss Piggy' (US-3A) around to each of the carriers in Desert Storm to get them paper copies of the ATO, which the air wing would then go through line by line to see what missions they were assigned the next day. That's straight from one of our more senior guys was a VFA LSAO on the Midway in Desert Storm.

Forgive my ignorance, what is the joint targeting cycle and "fires" professionals? You mean our ability to shoot at and hit targets? Some of the things I have been talking about is for example how the Russian tanks and armored vehicles have seemed to be so vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-tank weapons. One would think the Russians would be aware of such and know how to counter them.

You really should Google "Joint Targeting Cycle". Warfare is a lot more than hitting what you're shooting at. Who and what we shoot at in war, and what we shoot it with, is critical to tactical and strategic outcomes. Also important is what you don't shoot. Fires professionals (such as Targeteers, etc.) can make their careers enabling a lot of that.

Like @sevenhelmet said, it is the who and what we are shooting for our aircraft and cruise missiles at (Russia might/should also include their tactical ballistic missiles). We're not talking about what the infantryman is targeting with his ATGM.

Have these numbers been verified by any external sources? Pretty remarkable if true.

Very little has been confirmed of what Ukraine has claimed so far when it comes to Russian losses and I would be wary of those claims unless there is visible proof, of which there is a lot more than in the past but nowhere near the amount of what has been claimed so far. It will take a while to determine what is the 'truth' and even then much of that will remain unclear for a long time, if not forever, especially when talking about aircraft losses.

What's the skill level of the Ukraine Air Force? Anybody here work with them?

Before the war the Ukrainian Air Force was roughly the size of a USAF group/wing, and that was if everything they claimed to be operational actually worked. Given that they were reliant on leftover USSR-era aircraft that had been modified little since '91 their effectiveness was almost certainly pretty limited. Even with skilled pilots you can only do so much if your gear isn't as good as the other guys.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Before the war the Ukrainian Air Force was roughly the size of a USAF group/wing, and that was if everything they claimed to be operational actually worked.

Well, just the same old situation was in Finland in 1939-42, before the flow of German Bf109Gs and Ju88As started to fill the gap. Finnish Swede Capt Hans Wind, a second from the top of Finnish aces, stated that the shortage and obsolescence of the fighter airplanes in hand could be helped by the tough training and wide skills of the pilots, who were prepared, aside o ACM and deflection shooting, to change the engines, rearm and refuel their Brewster Buffaloes, which were re-engined to Swedish Bofors 0.5 guns and original bearings in engines - a main cause of mishaps of same aircraft of USN - were substituted with SKF ones. So Soviet AF were grimly surprised in 1939-40 by the rates of their own losses.
Same picture for Israeli AF 1948-58.
UA Air Force had these cases in mind shaping training and maintaining airplanes with some help of IAI from Israel. There was not too much money - we're still fucking corrupted society - but much had been done

 

[Flash]

A couple of thoughts:

- Slava Ukraini! Ukrainian resistance to the invasion so far has been a pleasant surprise, they've put up much more of a fight than many people assumed they would to include me and some folks who know much better than I. They have also demonstrated a much stronger sense of national identity than many had assumed they would, to apparently include Putin. And few things help spur a national identity more than the crucible of combat.

- Russia sucks! Russia's military progress thus far has been lackluster, to say the least, again to the surprise of many including me. They have made significant strides in modernizing their military but those reforms were not by any means complete and left a lot of the 'tail' to be done whenever they got around to it. As I mentioned before, their logistics lacks 'depth' and that has become glaringly obvious the past week. Everyone runs out of gas but for us it is an exception, not a rule. The other parts of their 'tail' to include basic staff work seems to also be horribly neglected, with even more basic C2/C3/C4I functions just not getting done.

- Staff work and logistics matter. They are underappreciated and often derided but there is a reason we have them, and with all their foibles and issues they usually get the job done. Planning and implementing an invasion of a country on the other side of the world might seem easy on TV but unless you've got the 'tail' to go along with the teeth even invading your next door neighbor ain't going to go real well. #POGLivesMatter

- It ain't over 'til its over. While things have not gone well for the Russians so far I would expect them to learn a few lessons, adapt and try again in what is likely to be an ever more brutal manner. We've gotten to the point where we, the West, isn't going to be able to do a whole lot more without directly intervening so if they escalate things what else can we do? Sooner or later the Ukrainians will start to run low on supplies of all kind and Molotov cocktails can only do so much. Things could get really ugly.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

We've gotten to the point where we, the West, isn't going to be able to do a whole lot more without directly intervening so if they escalate things what else can we do?

Being the base. Provide supply, arming, training, rotation, regroup & refresh for Ukranians who fight. Being like China for North Vietnam. It works if people is motivated. We are.

 

[Flash]

Well, just the same old situation was in Finland in 1939-42, before the flow of German Bf109Gs and Ju88As started to fill the gap. Finnish Swede Capt Hans Wind, a second from the top of Finnish aces, stated that the shortage and obsolescence of the fighter airplanes in hand could be helped by the tough training and wide skills of the pilots, who were prepared, aside o ACM and deflection shooting, to change the engines, rearm and refuel their Brewster Buffaloes, which were re-engined to Swedish Bofors 0.5 guns and original bearings in engines - a main cause of mishaps of same aircraft of USN - were substituted with SKF ones. So Soviet AF were grimly surprised in 1939-40 by the rates of their own losses.
Same picture for Israeli AF 1948-58.
UA Air Force had these cases in mind shaping training and maintaining airplanes with some help of IAI from Israel. There was not too much money - we're still fucking corrupted society - but much had been done

Unfortunately for the Ukrainians combat aircraft have gotten much more complex in the last 80 years and they don't have the time or resources to rebuild their Air Force in the next few weeks to counter the Russians. Even thought Russians haven't covered themselves in any sort of glory or competence so far they aren't complete morons and still have formidable forces, to include combat aircraft, they can bring to bear on the Ukrainians.

It still strikes me as odd to refer to the Ukrainians and the Russians not just as a separate people but as enemies at war. Having grown up in the last stages of the Cold War and viewing Russia as one and the same as the monolithic USSR and knowing that 'modern' Ukraine was only an independent country, if you can call it that, for less than 3 years before 1991 it is still odd for me to wrap my head around this whole situation. From what I've seen in the news I think many Russian and Ukrainian people are having the same difficulty, as this really is a war of choice driven by just one man.

 

[Flash]

Being the base. Provide supply, arming, training, rotation, regroup & refresh for Ukranians who fight. Being like China for North Vietnam. It works if people is motivated. We are.

I was talking about what we can do against Russia itself, not just to support Ukraine. I have doubts that Russia will be able to control all of Ukraine even if they 'win' and the eastern part of the country may become a redoubt of sorts, not only being geographically much further from Russia but also having a much higher percentage of ethnic Ukrainians than the rest of the country.

That brings me to another thought I've had and seen discussed in some of the smarter commentary and reporting on the war. what exactly is Putin's end game? At the start you could probably see that it was to have a lighting strike to take out the military and government, cow the population and install a puppet regime of Quislings backed by Russian and 'loyalist' forces. But that plan, if it was indeed the plan, has literally been shot to pieces by not only militarily but also from a governance perspective. How in the hell are they going to control a populace of over 40 million folks without significant local participation? And if they try and start getting too brutal everything will be splashed all over the world in HD within minutes by an army of angry locals and their online friends.

For someone who supposedly played chess while everyone else was playing checkers or tiddlywinks this whole thing has been an unmitigated disaster so far.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

From what I've seen in the news I think many Russian and Ukrainian people are having the same difficulty, as this really is a war of choice driven by just one man.

And note that fucking man made both the wall between two Slavic tribes and consolidation of that under blue-and-yellow flag much more stronger. Divide and reign principle in most stupid way

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

For someone who supposedly played chess while everyone else was playing checkers or tiddlywinks this whole thing has been an unmitigated disaster so far.

That very same thought makes me suggest Putin's plan was different (say air attacks only) but there appears unexpected driving force wlthin military Putin doesn't control or even understand. Or that force was deliberately created by some intel prince within Kremlin. In any case, everything after Feb 26th does not resemble planned military action.