Europe under extreme duress

[Randy Daytona]

For those of us who grew up in the Cold War and still worry much more about Russia and Communist China rather than wasting time, money and manpower in the Middle East and on ISIS, this month's Foreign Affairs is now out. Most of the magazine is about Russia with one big article about how China will not overtake the US military. Hoping to finish it this week.

 

[ryan1234]

For those of us who grew up in the Cold War and still worry much more about Russia and Communist China rather than wasting time, money and manpower in the Middle East and on ISIS, this month's Foreign Affairs is now out. Most of the magazine is about Russia with one big article about how China will not overtake the US military. Hoping to finish it this week.

Call me crazy, but I think the overt military threat of Russia is overplayed a bit - even for certain strategic interests. I hope both sides are careful about reading too much into the agitprop, lest an unpredictable escalation cycle. I think that Putin is more of a Czar rather than a typical communist ideology propagator of the Soviet Union. If Russia's going to act "aggressively" in the Baltic, it'll be most likely be under the threshold of Article V action.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Call me crazy, but I think the overt military threat of Russia is overplayed a bit - even for certain strategic interests. I hope both sides are careful about reading too much into the agitprop, lest an unpredictable escalation cycle. I think that Putin is more of a Czar rather than a typical communist ideology propagator of the Soviet Union. If Russia's going to act "aggressively" in the Baltic, it'll be most likely be under the threshold of Article V action.

Why Russia has NATO on the ropes

http://theweek.com/articles/620713/why-russia-nato-ropes?google_editors_picks=true

Some highlights:
- Only 31 percent of Germans believe their country should fulfill its treaty obligations and assist those countries (Poland, Baltics) if attacked.
- Fifty-three percent of the French are against defending Poland and the Baltics, as are 51 percent of Italians.
- (Defense Spending) In 2015, Germany spent just 1.2 percent, Italy less than 1 percent, and France 1.8 percent. The United States, by way of example, spent 4.6 percent.

 

[Flash]

...Only 31 percent of Germans believe their country should fulfill its treaty obligations and assist those countries (Poland, Baltics) if attacked...

The Germans are starting to annoy me, they seem to be awfully principled until it comes to protecting their trade and pocketbooks. Both are very important but a little more principle and ethics ought to be factors in their international decisionmaking too.

 

[Pags]

The Germans are starting to annoy me, they seem to be awfully principled until it comes to protecting their trade and pocketbooks. Both are very important but a little more principle and ethics ought to be factors in their international decisionmaking too.

Germany is a fan of realpolitik? Shocker.

I can't remember where I read it but there was an article that discussed how countries military and defense spending can be tied to how much they want to be able to shape the world around them. Seems like many European countries don't see the current threats as existential and therefore have to take them as they come.

 

[Flash]

Germany is a fan of realpolitik? Shocker...

It is realpolitik mixed with hypocrisy and arrogance, the latter two are the parts that are particularly annoying.

 

[ryan1234]

Why Russia has NATO on the ropes

http://theweek.com/articles/620713/why-russia-nato-ropes?google_editors_picks=true

Some highlights:
- Only 31 percent of Germans believe their country should fulfill its treaty obligations and assist those countries (Poland, Baltics) if attacked.
- Fifty-three percent of the French are against defending Poland and the Baltics, as are 51 percent of Italians.
- (Defense Spending) In 2015, Germany spent just 1.2 percent, Italy less than 1 percent, and France 1.8 percent. The United States, by way of example, spent 4.6 percent.

I don't think it's a surprise to anyone that overplaying the threat of Russian armed forces launching a Desert Storm style offensive to take the Baltic countries may be backfiring for NATO. Like I said before, I don't believe that Putin is on an idealogical crusade to spread communism, rather I think he's on a crusade for his own realpolitik (another term that has taken on some conceptual stretching lately). Russia is really just after their own policy goals - however those can be accomplished in their current economic state. If they really are the revisionist power that everyone is talking about, they're probably going to be more coercive overall - say undermining NATO's credibility by playing below NATO's threshold for action instead of an overt offensive military action. There's obviously a lot of energy politics playing out in Eastern Europe and the Baltic and security comes in many different ways. If NATO is selling physical security while undermining energy security potential, it's a wash.

The article had some great points to that effect

Another major campaign of aggression by Russia — perhaps even aimed at the alliance itself — could reverse attitudes. Pearl Harbor, for example, quickly reversed a deeply ingrained isolationist sentiment in the United States. Like Pearl Harbor, that would almost certainly involve tragedy that in hindsight will be seen as having been avoidable.


Russian aggression could even harden attitudes against collective self-defense even more, with the same majority seeking the path of least resistance, accommodation with Russia. It all depends of what costs Russia decides to impose — and whether they're too much to bear. And the Russia that was too smart to invade Crimea outright will be too smart to drive any of its potential adversaries to desperation.

 

[Randy Daytona]

I don't think it's a surprise to anyone that overplaying the threat of Russian armed forces launching a Desert Storm style offensive to take the Baltic countries may be backfiring for NATO. Like I said before, I don't believe that Putin is on an idealogical crusade to spread communism, rather I think he's on a crusade for his own realpolitik (another term that has taken on some conceptual stretching lately). Russia is really just after their own policy goals - however those can be accomplished in their current economic state. If they really are the revisionist power that everyone is talking about, they're probably going to be more coercive overall - say undermining NATO's credibility by playing below NATO's threshold for action instead of an overt offensive military action. There's obviously a lot of energy politics playing out in Eastern Europe and the Baltic and security comes in many different ways. If NATO is selling physical security while undermining energy security potential, it's a wash.

The article had some great points to that effect

The days of the Russians massing tank armies at the Fulda Gap have hopefully gone, but they have been successful in Crimea and Ukraine of combining special forces, partisans, cyber and then using military force when Russian nationals in those countries "asked" for help.

Pipeline situation is interesting. Gerhard Schroder (former PM of Germany) helped Putin build the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea directly from Gazprom in Russia to Germany - bypassing Eastern Europe.

Speaking of Eastern Europe, news from Hungary. https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...f2fcde-1139-11e6-a9b5-bf703a5a7191_story.html Merkel and the EU bureaucracy are demanding these homogeneous countries take massive amounts of immigrants - and these sovereign? countries are refusing. Orban (Hungary) in particular has been leading the resistance at the same time as spending more and more time with Putin. I would not be surprised to see some eastern european countries contemplate leaving NATO and the EU.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Out today in Politico...

http://www.politico.eu/pro/germany-shrugs-over-nord-stream-fuss/

 

[armada1651]

A popular but despotic leader of a major power seeking to restore his nation's former glory through increasingly aggressive and expansionist actions under the guise of protecting his countrymen abroad as a Western alliance questions their willingness to defend Poland while comforting themselves with faith that the systems put in place after the last conflict will prevent any such conflagration from ever recurring?

Sounds vaguely familiar...was that the plot of a movie or Tom Clancy novel or something?

 

[Randy Daytona]

Good article from the NYT. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/world/europe/nato-russia.html?_r=1

Tested by Russia, NATO Struggles to Stay Credible
By STEVEN ERLANGERMAY 31, 2016

Interesting quote: Only now, in fact, is NATO actually surveying the infrastructure — the bridges, roads and railways — of relatively newer member states in Central and Eastern Europe, not having judged it necessary before to plan how to quickly reinforce them in case of a Russian invasion.

 

[Flash]

Good article from the NYT. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/01/world/europe/nato-russia.html?_r=1

Tested by Russia, NATO Struggles to Stay Credible
By STEVEN ERLANGERMAY 31, 2016

Interesting quote: Only now, in fact, is NATO actually surveying the infrastructure — the bridges, roads and railways — of relatively newer member states in Central and Eastern Europe, not having judged it necessary before to plan how to quickly reinforce them in case of a Russian invasion.

Also a bit alarmist, why else would two longtime neutrals (Finland and Sweden) increasingly look towards NATO as a supporter to their defense?

 

[Randy Daytona]

BREXIT coming up for a vote in 10 days. A YES vote could start an unraveling of the EU. Current polls have those favoring the UK to leave the EU up by 7 points.

Polls show increasing support for Brexit; Murdoch's Sun backs 'Leave'

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll-idUSKCN0YZ2FY

 

[Randy Daytona]

The 21st Century Fulda Gap? The Suwalki Gap where Poland is the 64 mile wide NATO bridge to the Baltics - with Russian Kalingrad on one side and Belarus on the other has been in the news lately.

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/cl...t-russia-1466205268-lMyQjAxMTI2NDE0ODcxMzgwWj

 

[Brett327]

The ratio of Randy posts to other user posts in this thread is, frankly... alarming.