Europe under extreme duress

[Max the Mad Russian]

Even if the Ukrainians still keep up the fight I think the best they might be able to hope now for is an agreement like the one Finland struck at the end of the Winter War in 1940, where they ceded about 10% of their territory that is still controlled by Russia.

Agree. But let me reminder that there were two more points of pressure to USSR in 1940: Polish West and Far East, with true wars both sides knocking the Soviet borders here or there. Traditional Russian savage amusement of big bear torn apart by smaller dogs from different directions is a model. Bear is good just against one and only adversary, when facing two and more - it flees.

 

[Random8145]

I don't know if I myself trust nuke plants after the lack of safety showed by the Japanese with the Fukushima plant.

There is so much wrong with the debate surrounding the offer to transfer the Polish MiG-29's to Ukraine it is hard to know where to begin. There are so many questions that are unanswered or that folks don't know from the condition of the the Polish Fulcrums to their compatibility with Ukrainian ones to just how they would be transported to Ukraine, with countless more unanswered questions in between.

To be frank I really don't think there is a much more the Ukrainians can do with a just a squadron or two's worth of very short-legged air defense fighter that is well over 30 years old. They aren't going to gain anything near air superiority over the Russians and they could much better use ground attack aircraft, manned or unmanned, than a fighter with very minimal air to ground capability (if any) on a plane with half the range of a Hornet.

Last but definitely not least that a transfer of fighter jets could possibly trigger an outsized reaction from Russia. As has been exemplified by the inordinate public attention focused on this there is a lot of outsized and disproportionate emotion attached to fighter aircraft and their exploits. In reality the transfer of a mere squadron or two of MiG-29's to Ukraine will likely accomplish very little especially when compared to the massive transfer of thousands of ATGM's and MANPAD's that are actually making a difference in the war.

That is true, but then many experts also assumed the Russian military would run right over Ukraine. If the Ukrainians say they could use them, well I doubt they are being stupid. I do not myself believe that transferring them would create any outsized reaction from Russia; to me, this belief unto itself can trigger further aggression from Russia as it shows fear on the part of the West.

 

[Random8145]

I think the Russians utilizing more aircraft would make a big difference, if they knew how to use them. As we have already discussed though they may not be capable of doing that basic task.

Could also be logistics issues in terms of lack of spare parts and maintenance. Russia really hasn't fought a war against a trained combined-arms military force since WWII.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Could also be logistics issues in terms of lack of spare parts and maintenance

And deeper: an industry suffers much more than ever. Grinding and milling machinery tools with 5+ axes in CNC are not produced in Russia, let alone good enough inserts or mill gears for those tools. Every piece of machinery working out the turbine blades is of German, Austrian or Japanese origin. I'm sure within a year the aviation engine producing plants in Russia would stop, and I doubt Su and MiGs would fly on a prayer only.

 

[Random8145]

Agree. But let me reminder that there were two more points of pressure to USSR in 1940: Polish West and Far East, with true wars both sides knocking the Soviet borders here or there. Traditional Russian savage amusement of big bear torn apart by smaller dogs from different directions is a model. Bear is good just against one and only adversary, when facing two and more - it flees.

Do you mean literally, historically, Russians have a tradition of pit one bear against multiple dogs and have them kill it?

 

[Random8145]

And deeper: an industry suffers much more than ever. Grinding and milling machinery tools with 5+ axes in CNC are not produced in Russia, let alone good enough inserts or mill gears for those tools. Every piece of machinery working out the turbine blades is of German, Austrian or Japanese origin. I'm sure within a year the aviation engine producing plants in Russia would stop, and I doubt Su and MiGs would fly on a prayer only.

Yes, good point. I work in machining so good to see a person who knows about machine tools

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Do you mean literally, historically, Russians have a tradition of pit one bear against multiple dogs and have them kill it?

Yes, bear-baiting is not of Russian origin but nowadays Russia still has a taste for it:

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

I work in machining

Yeah, for a decades Russians stick with Siemens Sinumerik, Sinamics, Simatic trademarks and I think about 75% of CNC equipment in Russia is Siemens with the rest are Japanese Mitsubishi and Fanuc, with little Heidenhain input. All these suppliers are cut off Russia and even Chinese Siemens won't sell the CNC parts there since it is still Siemens. For that old German company it is painful to close the huge Russian market but it has to.

 

[Random8145]

Yeah, for a decades Russians stick with Siemens Sinumerik, Sinamics, Simatic trademarks and I think about 75% of CNC equipment in Russia is Siemens with the rest are Japanese Mitsubishi and Fanuc, with little Heidenhain input. All these suppliers are cut off Russia and even Chinese Siemens won't sell the CNC parts there since it is still Siemens. For that old German company it is painful to close the huge Russian market but it has to.

We use tons of Mazaks where I work (Japanese brand).

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

We use tons of Mazaks where I work

Maybe a dozen or two of that trademark sells in Russia. Seimens, just Siemens everywhere. CZ Skoda, DE Liebherr, AT EMCO, BE Pegard turn, mill, broach, grind machines were claimed to be controlled by Siemens as the main tender demand usually for Russian plants. Narrow view as a rule: one supplier, one set of rules, one management to corrupt, one source to rob etc.

 

[wink]

Baker Hughes is out of Russia joining their competitors Halliburton and Schlumberger. My son is an engineer with Baker. They do lots of precision machining for what goes down the hole. Some is complex, all have very high tolerances. You can't afford to get something stuck thousands of feet down because of sloppy machining or poor design. If the Russians can't produce or design those parts, eventually exploration and production will grind to a halt. That hits them where it hurts.

 

[Griz882]

Baker Hughes is out of Russia joining their competitors Halliburton and Schlumberger. My son is an engineer with Baker. They do lots of precision machining for what goes down the hole. Some is complex, all have very high tolerances. You can't afford to get something stuck thousands of feet down because of sloppy machining or poor design. If the Russians can't produce or design those parts, eventually exploration and production will grind to a halt. That hits them where it hurts.

Even if they could sink the drill to reach oil (they lack the engineering know how) it still has to travel miles and miles through pipelines that are vulnerable to…say…some angry Ukrainian sabotage actor.

 

[wink]

A song/video (in English) for Ukraine made in cooperation with the Estonian Defense Forces. I picked this up on Volokh Conspiracy, a blog on Reason.com. Eugene Volokh is a Ukrainian born law professor at UCLA.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Finns, Estonian neighbours, too. They start a new campaign against plastic bottles: Molotov cocktail is useless when in plastic. Only glass!

 

[Griz882]

An historians view of the current administration’s approach…and I agree.

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