Europe under extreme duress

[Flash]

An historians view of the current administration’s approach…and I agree.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

There are so many things wrong with that article, and not just the factual ones. He makes leaps of assumptions about grand strategy, just a month into a war that drastically changed the geopolitical landscape overnight, on really slim info and then contradicts himself in the same paragraph at times. That piece is a mess.

 

[ABMD]

Here on the east coast you won’t get people raising their hands for wind turbines, solar fields, or hydroelectric either. Energy consumption is expected…energy production is something “dirty” that is done elsewhere. I think around here (DC area) you have to go all the way to West Virginia to see a wind turbine.

You have Criterion Wind and Mountaineer, both on Backbone Mountain running through MD and WV.

Any proposed or underdevelopment nuclear construction has been done on the site of an existing plant, Calvert Cliffs in SoMD and Vogtle 3-4 in GA. The hurdle to new nuclear isn't the NIMBY's, it's the crushing cost associated with new construction. I mentioned this before, even with Federal loan guarantees, they required hundreds of millions in collateral, to secure those loans. With costs in the BILLIONS, no one wants to make that investment. It would take forever to get that money back and earn a return, if at all, in the current price environment. If you are a utility, like Southern Co, you may be able to pass those costs onto your rate base, good luck with that.

 

[taxi1]

You have Criterion Wind and Mountaineer, both on Backbone Mountain running through MD and WV.

Any proposed or underdevelopment nuclear construction has been done on the site of an existing plant, Calvert Cliffs in SoMD and Vogtle 3-4 in GA. The hurdle to new nuclear isn't the NIMBY's, it's the crushing cost associated with new construction. I mentioned this before, even with Federal loan guarantees, they required hundreds of millions in collateral, to secure those loans. With costs in the BILLIONS, no one wants to make that investment. It would take forever to get that money back and earn a return, if at all, in the current price environment. If you are a utility, like Southern Co, you may be able to pass those costs onto your rate base, good luck with that.

Those modular reactors will be the key to getting things moving. Build in a factory, ship to the site.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Gatordev]

History discussion moved here.

 

[Random8145]

Zelensky meanwhile continuing to ask for tanks and fighters and saying to NATO to please not ever again tell Ukraine that their forces do not meet NATO standards given how they have been performing. I see various "experts" in the West saying about how fighters and tanks wouldn't help the Ukrainians, but then why would Zelensky keep asking for them? Does he not know of what he speaks? I am sure he is going by what his military commanders are asking of him, and given how well his military has performed thus far, I'd say those commanders probably have a good understanding of what they're asking for. It isn't as if Zelensky has said they could use fighters and tanks if they could be sent, but that they are plenty capable of making due with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles and drones. Instead he continues to push hard for aircraft and tanks.

Also, many of the same experts who say the Ukrainians wouldn't do much better with fighters and tanks are the same ones who said the Russian military would run right over the Ukrainian military. So clearly many of the actual experts, the ones who do this as a profession, whose job it is to be an expert on this sort of thing, are still limited in their knowledge of this event. And IMO the best-qualified people to determine what is most needed to fight the Russians are the ones on the ground (and in the air) actually fighting the Russians.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Instead he continues to push hard for aircraft and tanks.

He understands that for his nation this upcomung victory won't finish the era of overall defence but rather will open it. Whatever the outcomes would be, the UA-RU tensions are for decades at best, and rather for centuries. So he wants to have all possible assets - he looks at real future. Aside, no countries which border hostile neighbours by land reject tanks and aircraft. Nobody else will defend Ukraine for good, it's up to us the Ukranians.
Historically: armour regiment on land is an aircraft carrier at sea. Both bring tactical progress, both are vulnerable to asymmetric warfare. But as long as balance is even temporary in favor of progress, both are valuable and mostly indispensable. Ask Israelies

 

[Random8145]

It seems one of Ukraine's biggest suppliers of military hardware has been Russia itself. The Ukrainian military has apparently captured more tanks from the Russians than it has lost. I don't know if the Ukrainian military has the logistics to keep these tanks operating though. They also apparently captured a very high-tech Russian electronic warfare vehicle:

And there's a video of a whole neighborhood in Ukraine where there is a Russian amphibious armored vehicle in every driveway:

 

[Griz882]

He understands that for his nation this upcomung victory won't finish the era of overall defence but rather will open it. Whatever the outcomes would be, the UA-RU tensions are for decades at best, and rather for centuries. So he wants to have all possible assets - he looks at real future. Aside, no countries which border hostile neighbours by land reject tanks and aircraft. Nobody else will defend Ukraine for good, it's up to us the Ukranians.
Historically: armour regiment on land is an aircraft carrier at sea. Both bring tactical progress, both are vulnerable to asymmetric warfare. But as long as balance is even temporary in favor of progress, both are valuable and mostly indispensable. Ask Israelies

Also I’m wondering if he might be considering a limited offensive in some areas. A primarily infantry force is limited on any advance that moves beyond the urban sphere and the mobility offered by tracked and wheeled vehicles (and the cover provided by air power) to protect flanks, blunt counter-attacks, and punch through structured defenses is critical. An offensive without tanks would be a gift to Russian commanders.

 

[Griz882]

It seems one of Ukraine's biggest suppliers of military hardware has been Russia itself. The Ukrainian military has apparently captured more tanks from the Russians than it has lost. I don't know if the Ukrainian military has the logistics to keep these tanks operating though. They also apparently captured a very high-tech Russian electronic warfare vehicle:

And there's a video of a whole neighborhood in Ukraine where there is a Russian amphibious armored vehicle in every driveway:

Based on Russia’s performance thus far I imagine that “very high-tech” electronic warfare truck probably has little more than an Wi game system, flat screen tv, DVD player, and a borscht warmer inside.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

Also I’m wondering if he might be considering a limited offensive in some areas

Yes, sooner or later that will be the case.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

and a borscht warmer inside

Russians don't have the true borsch. They cannot prepare it and so they hide the rough smack with a lot of cream added. Each time I tasted "ukranian cuisine" in Russia, the dish returned back to kitchen half-full.

It takes culinarian art to get the true borsch, my grandma, pure Ukranian blood, was an adept in it. Borsch and black bread were the fortresses to fight for between Russian and Ukranian traditions for many years. Though I'd surely prefer to fight for copyright over those cuisine castles up to fist brawl and was ready to wage this war over stove-oven and kitchen table only, now I will always stand for Ukranian borsch!

 

[ChuckMK23]

Ukraine is doing wonders with their Su-27 fleet. We are shipping them spares support overland through Poland. Brilliant.

The land bridge carrying Javelins and MANPADS is especially clever. C-17's offloading pallets into SUV'S, then loading 6 or 8 SUVs onto SCANIA luxury car transporters to the border where Ukraine forces meet the trucks and drive the SUVs to dispersal / logistics sites then drive back to meet the car carriers for another run. Brilliant.

We stand with you @Max the Mad Russian.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Those modular reactors will be the key to getting things moving. Build in a factory, ship to the site.

Fingers crossed.

The tipping point will be batteries free of Cobalt and can hold 5-10x the energy of today's batteries. That's coming. Batteries that are more powerful and require only components we can source inside our borders at scale.

 

[Max the Mad Russian]

The land bridge carrying Javelins and MANPADS is especially clever

Grateful as it just can be! Watch out, Russians warn that they will hit the convoys on Ukranian land, but they aren't surgical precise so it could be Poland. And SUV carrier is really smart. Logistics as it should be!

 

[Random8145]

Also I’m wondering if he might be considering a limited offensive in some areas. A primarily infantry force is limited on any advance that moves beyond the urban sphere and the mobility offered by tracked and wheeled vehicles (and the cover provided by air power) to protect flanks, blunt counter-attacks, and punch through structured defenses is critical. An offensive without tanks would be a gift to Russian commanders.

Well apparently Ukrainian forces have already conducted some limited offensives, driving Russian forces back and even surrounding Russian forces near Kyiv. Word is about 10,000 Russian troops may be on the verge of being surrounded.