Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[HSMPBR]

Throw in some SHARP, substance abuse, CRT, extremism, and suicide prevention training and they'll be paralyzed as a fighting entity.

Those cave-dwellers will never be sophisticated enough to update and verify their NFAAS annually.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I see China's approach as more the DI_EFIL areas, than militarily going into Afghanistan:

• Diplomatic: curry Taliban favor by being their first and best friend on the UNSC, preventing or blunting future UN actions (e.g. sanctions, BOG observers) that are sure to follow a harsh Taliban regime
• Informational: assist the Taliban in painting the US/FVEY in a poor light wherever possible; present China as a "good guy" and a friend to the Muslim world, as a way to deflect Uighur criticism
• Economic: BRI, resource extraction, and related trade partnerships and economic initiatives; possibly narcotics related, too, as we know China is a major origin of fentanyl
• Financial: provide much needed investment money when Europe, global banks, and int'l institutions (e.g. IMF) might shun the Taliban; China may attach certain strings to these financial levers, but they can't be too overpowering or the Taliban will get financing from private Arabian Peninsula backers; but the Taliban are likely to take whatever investment funding they can get (and maybe pay it back or not)
• Intelligence: Chinese intel services will no doubt be active in Afghanistan, and China may arrange for intel-sharing with the Taliban in a quid pro quo arrangement if China perceives the juice is worth the squeeze
• Law Enforcement: China's model is a mix between Xinjiang and the "Smart City" - which is partly economic (building infrastructure), partly financial (if given on a loan or credit), partly intel (data collection), and partly LE. China may also offer to help the Taliban reconstitute some sort of border control on its various land borders, because border control can be a way for China to gain access to Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia

I don't see China putting troops on the ground, but it's possible. China has been known to use forced labor in the past (which China deems expendable), and/or go the route of private security contractors like a Chinese version of Vagner. China can also just co-opt the Taliban and pay the Taliban for security at BRI locations. That's probably the first and easiest route, which only costs money, is the fastest option, will be the most acceptable to the Taliban, and has the least logistics tail.

TL;DR: Follow the (Chinese) money

Taliban declare China their closest ally as UK refuses to recognise group

TALIBAN officials have declared China as their closest ally in the international community. Militants say Beijing is “ready to invest in and reconstruct” Afghanistan and describe the nation as thei…

www.the-sun.com

I’m planting my flag on this prediction. We can check back in a year or five and see if I got the call right.

 

[Griz882]

Taliban declare China their closest ally as UK refuses to recognise group

TALIBAN officials have declared China as their closest ally in the international community. Militants say Beijing is “ready to invest in and reconstruct” Afghanistan and describe the nation as thei…

www.the-sun.com

I’m planting my flag on this prediction. We can check back in a year or five and see if I got the call right.

The Chinese will make an easy target for the anti-Taliban forces. Once hit the Chinese either have to leave or move in troops…if they move in troops the Taliban will be forced to push them out to maintain their imagined caliphate. Moreover, the Pakistanis might have something to say as well - they love disruptive tactics more than any of the former Mrs.Griz’s.

 

[Hair Warrior]

The Chinese will make an easy target for the anti-Taliban forces. Once hit the Chinese either have to leave or move in troops…if they move in troops the Taliban will be forced to push them out to maintain their imagined caliphate. Moreover, the Pakistanis might have something to say as well - they love disruptive tactics more than any of the former Mrs.Griz’s.

I disagree with some of your assumptions. I think Chinese companies will hire regular Afghans for manual labor, and pay the Taliban for security. Both are cheaper and more effective than Chinese labor and security.

I also think any “anti Taliban forces” will either not remain organized to the extent that they are a persistent presence years from now, and also I doubt they would directly target Chinese interests (when better, more direct Taliban targets exist). Plus, if the anti Taliban forces somehow manage to make it a fair fight, they won’t want China choosing sides or interfering - they’ll want to keep China on the sidelines and keep that reconstruction money flowing.

 

[Tumbleweed33]

A very similar story in Rhodesia, where the small but well-trained military and police forces backed by an equally well-trained but very small aerial force fought and a lot more often than not defeated tens of thousands of anti-government forces for well over a decade. A Marine's war college paper I read called it possibly the 'best counter-insurgency force of the 20th Century' and he may not be far off the mark. In the end though it was again politics that decided the outcome of the conflict as it did in Algeria, Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Do you think you could drop a link to the war college paper on the Rhodesian war?

 

[nittany03]

Those cave-dwellers will never be sophisticated enough to update and verify their NFAAS annually.

ANNUALLY? You think your chain of command is going to be able to get a hold of you if you don't update your status every 6 months, even if nothing's changed in 3 years? SAFETY VIOLATOR!!

 

[MIDNJAC]

I disagree with some of your assumptions. I think Chinese companies will hire regular Afghans for manual labor, and pay the Taliban for security. Both are cheaper and more effective than Chinese labor and security.

Interesting you say this. I've been reading "China's Second Continent" recently. One of the biggest complaints that seemed to pop up in country after country in Africa, was that the Chinese won contracts, and then simply brought in their own labor to build stuff/run stuff/etc, rather than bother hiring the locals. I wonder if this would not be the case in Afghanistan?

 

[nittany03]

Interesting you say this. I've been reading "China's Second Continent" recently. One of the biggest complaints that seemed to pop up in country after country in Africa, was that the Chinese won contracts, and then simply brought in their own labor to build stuff/run stuff/etc, rather than bother hiring the locals. I wonder if this would not be the case in Afghanistan?

They're not interested in employing the locals. They're interested in enticing their government to let Chinese nationals build infrastructure that the Chinese government can then use as a debt trap. Either via usurious financing to build the thing or a predatory leaseback to the Chinese government at the end. Either way, they're now under Winnie the Pooh's thumb when it comes to their relations with third countries.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Interesting you say this. I've been reading "China's Second Continent" recently. One of the biggest complaints that seemed to pop up in country after country in Africa, was that the Chinese won contracts, and then simply brought in their own labor to build stuff/run stuff/etc, rather than bother hiring the locals. I wonder if this would not be the case in Afghanistan?

Maybe I’m wrong and China will stumble into Afghanistan with heavy-handed tactics that will cost them dearly in blood and treasure. The Taliban aren’t really in a position to say no to any form of Chinese rebuilding, so maybe China decides to force the issue. One can dream.

 

[number9]

Interesting you say this. I've been reading "China's Second Continent" recently. One of the biggest complaints that seemed to pop up in country after country in Africa, was that the Chinese won contracts, and then simply brought in their own labor to build stuff/run stuff/etc, rather than bother hiring the locals. I wonder if this would not be the case in Afghanistan?

In my experience in West Africa, the Chinese bringing in their own labor (and equipment) was part of the deal.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Superb article by the always good Robert Kaplan.

Central Asia’s geography after America’s defeat

Central Asia’s geography after America's defeat - The Spectator World

The United States will have to remain active in Central Asia beyond simply monitoring Afghanistan-based terrorism from perches at sea

spectatorworld.com

 

[HAL Pilot]

 

[HAL Pilot]

 

[Hair Warrior]

HKIA reopens, without radar. Looks like Qatar is helping them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/05/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-updates/

 

[picklesuit]

Fucking paywall…