After 20 years as a Blue and Gold Officer, I still can not predict what the Board will do. Seen too many great guys not get selected, and some lesser, though still qualified, get the nod. WRT NAPS, that goes double. I am told NAPS is still primarily for guys coming from the fleet. But for those that find an issue with the very notion of investing more money in a candidate that may not hack it without the extra help, consider that NAPS is a major part of the "diversity" initiatives at USNA. You are not fighting diversity, as it is these days, without getting sideways glances or called names. No different at USNA.
The Foundation Prep programs is still around. They send about 50 guys a year to USNA. Last year NAPS sent 198 to Annapolis. Over 375 came from the fleet last year so obviously, not every fleet guy cycles through NAPS. Notwithstanding red shirt Napsters, I see NAPS as a way to insure candidates who are highly desirable in every other way but possibly academics, succeed at USNA. As has been mentioned, GPA does not make a great leader. But if the Board sees other things on an app that makes the kid's experience indicate leadership chops or a life experience that may enrich the Brigade and even the Navy, why not make sure they will succeed? I tell my candidates it is a back handed compliment. They could have been rejected out of hand, but the Board sees something in them worth the extra investment. How do you measure intangibles? Start with everything but a HS GPA or SAT score and you are likely to get a read on the intangibles.