It is already looming. The active duty SWO LT who relieved me yesterday from reserve duty showed me a community brief for SWO JO's. They are looking at a 40-50% shortfall from the O's that are
required to fill billets in his YG. It is looking just as bad for O-4/5 SWO's. That is with the 75k they are throwing at them for the DH bonus. He and the other LT have had enough shenanigans and are both leaving at the end of their initial commitment, and avoidiing the reserves at all costs.
I think the Navy has reached the bottom of the barrel when it comes to the goodwill and tolerance that most have for us being at war for the past 7 years. We were facing a manning crisis right before 9/11 and I think we will again. Starting that vicious cycle where the guys left will have to do more, driving those left out at a faster rate, repeat cycle.
There are some guys that will always stay in, and some that will always get out, no matter the conditions. But a lot of the fence sitters are being driven away by the continued games that the Navy plays. I see it in the reserves now, lots of good guys leaving or not even joining because of it.
The train is coming, and I don't think big Navy sees it yet.