Road to 350: What Does the US Navy Do Anyway?

[AllAmerican75]

Well, to have five year plans is down right Soviet. Can't have that.

Not disagreeing, but I am not sure how many western democracies have really effective long term (10+ years) industrial or economic plans. Liberal democracies by their nature do not allow for that sort of long term industrial and economic planning. We just are among the worse.
It isn't that the Chinese have uniquely long term view. It is rather common in Asia. But countries like Korea and Japan, with strong democracies, can not string together many more years than any other democracy.

We don't disagree. It's a problem not only in the US but also in Europe and many other countries. The West has simply lost its way. For instance, most European countries have cut military spending in favor of welfare/social safety net programs. They have universal healthcare and fantastic pension programs but their militaries are in disrepair. This happened because the US has guaranteed Europe's defense for the last 80 years. It's not going to be sustainable for the US to provide approx. 80% to 90% of NATO's combat power any longer.

To quote what someone else said on the internets:

Khrushchev is dead. The Soviet Union died more than 30 years ago.

Russia has half the population the old USSR did, its economy is about as big as Mexico’s, life expectancy is going down, alcoholism is rife, Putin is an authoritarian with a tendency for his opponents to disappear.

All that without firing a shot.



But it isn't just the Chinese cranking out ships, the South Koreans and Japanese are as well. As has already been pointed out we have stuff like workplace safety and labor requirements that some of those other countries don't have. I've dealt with some US ships that get serviced overseas because if they come back to the states it'll wreck the budget for them, and the work won't be as good either. We certainly do suffer from a lack of having some sort of coherent national shipbuilding strategy but it would almost certainly take more government direction and/or control (socialism!), funding and consistent attention.

Something to note is that both Korea and Japan have done a lot to protect their critical national industries. For instance, the South Korean government holds a significant share percentage of Samsung, Daewoo, and Hyundai because they recognize their importance to South Korea's national defense. I have no problem with protectionism and "socialist" policies if it means we have a strong maritime and industrial base. Maybe then we'd actually have a coherent National Maritime and Shipbuilding Strategy.

I disagree- Our history shows we can be very effective as a nation when we choose to uphold a common sense of national identity and work hard toward a common purpose. Instead, these days it's all about individual identity politics and climate change. Our enemies' work is being done for them for the sake of 1,000 splintered groups "living their truth" and putting up ESG roadblocks, all so that the Blackrocks and Vanguards of the world can make money.

Meanwhile our enemies do what they've always done, with no such restrictions.

@sevenhelmet, we don't disagree. I was trying to be as general as possible because I don't want this thread to turn into a bunch of partisan political poo-flinging like so many other threads have. It's exactly that lack of cohesive national identity, common purpose, and the nationalist protection policies that come along with that that allowed all of our industrial base and workforce to become hollowed out so that GDP line could keep going up and up and up and up. Thank you for putting it so succinctly for me.

The Chinese have historically spent more time fighting each other than organizing anything long term. Don’t paint these dudes as 10ft tall. I am assuming Chinese ship building is about the same quality as most of their ground equipment. Most of which has significantly poor reliability and lacks any sort of logistical tail to sustain it over time. We’re talking about a country that couldn’t organically produce ball point pens until 2017.

Recent events in various conflicts show the ability to C2 an operational plan is exceedingly difficult. We’re probably only average at it at best. I have suspicions that the PLA/PLAN can successfully execute mission command at the pace in which western militaries have been accustomed to since the Prussian Army developed the concept centuries ago. You can have all the nice toys you want, but the ability to use them effectively is another ballgame.

I'm not worried about the new toys so much as I am the fact that we lack the necessary number of auxiliary ships, shipyards, shipyard workers, and Sailors necessary to operate 6,000 miles from home in an island-hopping campaign similar to WW2. We lack the ability to replenish an entire fleet, perform expeditionary repair, perform critical heavy sealift, and perform large scale salvage. In WW2, we built over a thousand ships and roughly 75% of them were auxiliary and logistics ships. We now have no repair ships, only two tenders (both are on the chopping block), no combat-capable oilers (They need to be fast), and zero heavy sealift. Hell, we can't even produce shipboard armor like we used to. There's a high likelihood that we will not be able to sustain protracted combat operations in the Western Pacific. And that's before we address the issue of our near total reliance on satellite communications in comms-denied environment where we do not have total control of the RF spectrum.

 

[sevenhelmet]

@sevenhelmet, we don't disagree. I was trying to be as general as possible because I don't want this thread to turn into a bunch of partisan political poo-flinging like so many other threads have. It's exactly that lack of cohesive national identity, common purpose, and the nationalist protection policies that come along with that that allowed all of our industrial base and workforce to become hollowed out so that GDP line could keep going up and up and up and up. Thank you for putting it so succinctly for me.

I'm with you on avoiding the partisan poo-slinging. Per design, it never solves anything. However, there are some hard truths (read: objective realities) that we will have to face sooner or later about our national condition and what we want America to stand for.

If we don't decide, someone will decide for us, and that ain't a good thing at all, regardless of who you are or what truth you're living.

 

[Hotdogs]

I'm not worried about the new toys so much as I am the fact that we lack the necessary number of auxiliary ships, shipyards, shipyard workers, and Sailors necessary to operate 6,000 miles from home in an island-hopping campaign similar to WW2. We lack the ability to replenish an entire fleet, perform expeditionary repair, perform critical heavy sealift, and perform large scale salvage. In WW2, we built over a thousand ships and roughly 75% of them were auxiliary and logistics ships. We now have no repair ships, only two tenders (both are on the chopping block), no combat-capable oilers (They need to be fast), and zero heavy sealift. Hell, we can't even produce shipboard armor like we used to. There's a high likelihood that we will not be able to sustain protracted combat operations in the Western Pacific. And that's before we address the issue of our near total reliance on satellite communications in comms-denied environment where we do not have total control of the RF spectrum.

I don’t think many would disagree with some of your comments above. However, I have a hard time when anyone compares WWII stats to modern warfare. I just wouldn’t paint the PLA or PLAN as some omnipresent force that won’t encounter similar type of friction with less training to overcome it.

…also if only there was this force that was capable of seizing advanced naval bases in support of a Maritime campaign. Might make your problems a little easier to solve. ? (Shameless USMC plug…)

 

[Flash]

I disagree- Our history shows we can be very effective as a nation when we choose to uphold a common sense of national identity and work hard toward a common purpose. Instead, these days it's all about individual identity politics and climate change. Our enemies' work is being done for them for the sake of 1,000 splintered groups "living their truth" and putting up ESG roadblocks, all so that the Blackrocks and Vanguards of the world can make money.

I’m amused when folks blame this sort of thing for our supposed ills when these sorts of disputes and issues have existed since our country’s founding. As a great man once said, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried”.

We don't disagree. It's a problem not only in the US but also in Europe and many other countries. The West has simply lost its way. For instance, most European countries have cut military spending in favor of welfare/social safety net programs. They have universal healthcare and fantastic pension programs but their militaries are in disrepair. This happened because the US has guaranteed Europe's defense for the last 80 years. It's not going to be sustainable for the US to provide approx. 80% to 90% of NATO's combat power any longer.

I am not sure that is really the West ‘losing its way’, it seems more following the will of the people and providing for the welfare of their citizens. Sure, I’d like to see more defense spending but promoting the general welfare of the people is kind of what governments are supposed to do. Defense is part of that but so is the other stuff.

 

[wink]

I’m amused when folks blame this sort of thing for our supposed ills when these sorts of disputes and issues have existed since our country’s founding.

I am amused when you point this out. It is most certainly true people have groused about their own condition, their fellow man's citizenship, and the state of the country since the founding. The sentiments often sound the very same and some people stand up and point out that those complaints never amounted to a hill of beans before. But when Americans complained about hooligans and delinquents, and unserious youth, they referred to kids that drag raced Main St, pick apples from a neighbor's tree, put burs under saddles, skipped school to go fishing, and bullied kids for their milk money or in the extreme, maybe beat up a rival street gang with fists and baseball bats.

Today's levels violence, coarseness of culture, government disconnect, and lack of shared purposed are at a point I don't think we have ever seen. Don't mistake your Great-grandfather's complaints about the "gubment" or 'ol crazy Uncle Fillmore's ranting over kids driving jalopies across his lawn with today's concerns for our future.

I am generally optimistic about America and Americans. But we have so many problems now, overcoming them to meet a major national challenge will cost many more lives and money then need be, if we were prepared.

 

[AllAmerican75]

I don’t think many would disagree with some of your comments above. However, I have a hard time when anyone compares WWII stats to modern warfare. I just wouldn’t paint the PLA or PLAN as some omnipresent force that won’t encounter similar type of friction with less training to overcome it.

…also if only there was this force that was capable of seizing advanced naval bases in support of a Maritime campaign. Might make your problems a little easier to solve. ? (Shameless USMC plug…)

In order to take islands and drive an enemy force back to their homeland in continental Asia, you need to get troops, beans, bullets, and fuel to the front lines. In order to fight a protracted war at sea against a peer power, you need to be able to repair your ships and minimize time spent out of the fight. I find your line of reasoning hubristic considering the last time we did that was WW2. The logistics needs of war doesn't change that much and hasn't in the last few thousand years. As always, the enemy has a say in how easily we can do any of these things.

I’m amused when folks blame this sort of thing for our supposed ills when these sorts of disputes and issues have existed since our country’s founding. As a great man once said, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried”.


I am not sure that is really the West ‘losing its way’, it seems more following the will of the people and providing for the welfare of their citizens. Sure, I’d like to see more defense spending but promoting the general welfare of the people is kind of what governments are supposed to do. Defense is part of that but so is the other stuff.

Sure, welfare is great and all but if you want to maintain your place as the global hegemon and enforce the status quo in your favor, then you need to have the military power to do so. Europe largely abdicated that role. We are now at the point where we will need to decide if we like being able to intervene in foreign politics on a whim or not. Just today I read an article where the government projects that Social Security will be completely insolvent by 2033. If we truly expect to be going to war with China in the next 5-10 years, we're going to have to decide whether we want to put our money into recapitalizing our Fleet and military industrial base or put it into maintaining and/or expanding our own social safety nets.

 

[Hotdogs]

In order to take islands and drive an enemy force back to their homeland in continental Asia, you need to get troops, beans, bullets, and fuel to the front lines. In order to fight a protracted war at sea against a peer power, you need to be able to repair your ships and minimize time spent out of the fight. I find your line of reasoning hubristic considering the last time we did that was WW2. The logistics needs of war doesn't change that much and hasn't in the last few thousand years. As always, the enemy has a say in how easily we can do any of these things.

What are you debating me about? I never stated anything contrary to your concerns for modern naval sustainment. It’s important and we have a deficiency. You’re talking to some one who’s witnessed the first hand lack of funding for amphibious ships for the better part of the last decade.

-You painted China as a well organized country. Historically speaking - that is completely inaccurate.

-They can build ships - Great. Utilizing them effectively is another story.

As for your highlighted sentence - more than happy to debate that assertion. It has changed significantly with only the requirement as a constant. It’s beyond the purview of this thread, but WWII logistics had different requirements than modern militaries (both positive and negative) and for conflicts in the last 2000 years.

 

[Flash]

I am amused when you point this out. It is most certainly true people have groused about their own condition, their fellow man's citizenship, and the state of the country since the founding. The sentiments often sound the very same and some people stand up and point out that those complaints never amounted to a hill of beans before. But when Americans complained about hooligans and delinquents, and unserious youth, they referred to kids that drag raced Main St, pick apples from a neighbor's tree, put burs under saddles, skipped school to go fishing, and bullied kids for their milk money or in the extreme, maybe beat up a rival street gang with fists and baseball bats.

Along with rampant corruption, gangs and organized crime that broke the law and murdered with impunity, pervasive legal racism and segregation throughout American society coupled with thousands of lynchings, casual and (again) legal antisemitism, and widespread familial (yet again legal) abuse of women and children among countless other issues of the day. Benjamin Tillman, Father Coughlin and numerous others along with the 1870's, 1920's, 30's, 50's and 70's called and want their problems back.

Seriously, put American history under a microscope and the 'good 'ol days' weren't always that good. Does that mean American history is nothing but bad stuff with a few good things thrown in? No, but it wasn't some sort of golden utopia without serious issues throughout our history as some seem to want to believe.

Today's levels violence, coarseness of culture, government disconnect, and lack of shared purposed are at a point I don't think we have ever seen. Don't mistake your Great-grandfather's complaints about the "gubment" or 'ol crazy Uncle Fillmore's ranting over kids driving jalopies across his lawn with today's concerns for our future.

How about the conspiratorial and racist ramblings of some of my older family members who regularly disparaged the Polacks, Eye'talians and 'the Jews' and talked about how JFK conspired with the mob and Daley in Chicago to steal votes in '60 from Nixon? And that is what they were willing to talk about around kids, talk about coarseness amongst other things. The only difference now is folks like that get to rant on social media and connect with other idiots from across the country and around the world. Like my classmate the chemtrail fan and anti-vaxxer.

I am generally optimistic about America and Americans. But we have so many problems now, overcoming them to meet a major national challenge will cost many more lives and money then need be, if we were prepared.

I am very optimistic about America and Americans, and our future as a country and a people. Even with all our problems we have shown our the ability to adapt and overcome countless issues and obstacles in our history, and while the information age certainly seems to amplify many issues it doesn't mean it makes things worse than it has been before.

 

[Flash]

Sure, welfare is great and all but if you want to maintain your place as the global hegemon and enforce the status quo in your favor, then you need to have the military power to do so. Europe largely abdicated that role. We are now at the point where we will need to decide if we like being able to intervene in foreign politics on a whim or not. Just today I read an article where the government projects that Social Security will be completely insolvent by 2033. If we truly expect to be going to war with China in the next 5-10 years, we're going to have to decide whether we want to put our money into recapitalizing our Fleet and military industrial base or put it into maintaining and/or expanding our own social safety nets.

Every country with sufficient money is facing that problem, to include China.

 

[wink]

Along with rampant corruption, gangs and organized crime that broke the law and murdered with impunity, pervasive legal racism and segregation throughout American society coupled with thousands of lynchings, casual and (again) legal antisemitism, and widespread familial (yet again legal) abuse of women and children among countless other issues of the day. Benjamin Tillman, Father Coughlin and numerous others along with the 1870's, 1920's, 30's, 50's and 70's called and want their problems back.

Seriously, put American history under a microscope and the 'good 'ol days' weren't always that good. Does that mean American history is nothing but bad stuff with a few good things thrown in? No, but it wasn't some sort of golden utopia without serious issues throughout our history as some seem to want to believe.



How about the conspiratorial and racist ramblings of some of my older family members who regularly disparaged the Polacks, Eye'talians and 'the Jews' and talked about how JFK conspired with the mob and Daley in Chicago to steal votes in '60 from Nixon? And that is what they were willing to talk about around kids, talk about coarseness amongst other things. The only difference now is folks like that get to rant on social media and connect with other idiots from across the country and around the world. Like my classmate the chemtrail fan and anti-vaxxer.



I am very optimistic about America and Americans, and our future as a country and a people. Even with all our problems we have shown our the ability to adapt and overcome countless issues and obstacles in our history, and while the information age certainly seems to amplify many issues it doesn't mean it makes things worse than it has been before.

So sorry. Red hearing is out of season. But nice trying to link everything racist to my point. In the meanwhile, maybe consider that man hasn't always been able to solve their problems or improve their lot. Civilizations have fallen, cultures decayed and economies broken. This happens because of man. I think we are both right. I simply expect much more pain along the way.

 

[Flash]

So sorry. Red hearing is out of season. But nice trying to link everything racist to my point. In the meanwhile, maybe consider that man hasn't always been able to solve their problems or improve their lot. Civilizations have fallen, cultures decayed and economies broken. This happens because of man. I think we are both right. I simply expect much more pain along the way.

'Linking everything racist' is all you got out of my post?

 

[wink]

'Linking everything racist' is all you got out of my post?

Told you. Not fishing for red hearing. ? Really, just trying not to prolong the thread jack by debating points when I know I am right.

 

[Swanee]

They can build ships - Great. Utilizing them effectively is another story.

Exactly! China is building aircraft carriers- great. We've been doing it for 100 years. They're still suck on how to train folks to launch and recover a single airplane safely in the best and most benign of conditions.
When they start conducting freedom of navigation maneuvers around Alaska and Hawaii and the west coast of North America I'll be a little more concerned.

They still can't build reliable jet engines on the scale that we and the Brits can.
This doesn't mean they're not a big regional and potential global threat, but the fear mongering that they're going to steamroll us in a war is a bit much.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Exactly! China is building aircraft carriers- great. We've been doing it for 100 years. They're still suck on how to train folks to launch and recover a single airplane safely in the best and most benign of conditions.
When they start conducting freedom of navigation maneuvers around Alaska and Hawaii and the west coast of North America I'll be a little more concerned.

They still can't build reliable jet engines on the scale that we and the Brits can.
This doesn't mean they're not a big regional and potential global threat, but the fear mongering that they're going to steamroll us in a war is a bit much.

They might not steamroll us militarily, but we'd be crazy not to think there will be losses- potentially heavy ones- on both sides. They will definitely fight dirty, and use all our tech, business rules, and cultural inhibitions against us. To say nothing of our fractious national identity. China also knows our ships' maintenance schedules and when our new capabilities are projected to come online- possibly better than we do. That's where I think a lot of the "pending war with China" predictions are coming from.

Whether those predictions will bear fruit or not, I have no idea. But the confluence of peak China and weak US strategy lends itself to some level of self-reflection and (hopefully) appropriate action. Wars have a tendency to follow a set of preconditions, and I admit, some of those are present.

 

[Randy Daytona]

Exactly! China is building aircraft carriers- great. We've been doing it for 100 years. They're still suck on how to train folks to launch and recover a single airplane safely in the best and most benign of conditions.
When they start conducting freedom of navigation maneuvers around Alaska and Hawaii and the west coast of North America I'll be a little more concerned.

They still can't build reliable jet engines on the scale that we and the Brits can.
This doesn't mean they're not a big regional and potential global threat, but the fear mongering that they're going to steamroll us in a war is a bit much.

That assumes China’s fleet sails out to engage on the open water; rather more dangerous is if our fleet has to sail close to Taiwan, within range of a multitude of land based aircraft and missiles.

While most scenarios seem to involve a Chinese invasion, there is also the possibility of a blockade, to starve the island of fuel, food and trade. Of note, the majority of Taiwan’s major ports all face China.