Road to 350: What Does the US Navy Do Anyway?

[hscs]

And don’t forget, there’s significant operational learning occurring. There may be a cost difference; however, those ships and aircraft are shooting for real vice some heavily scripted live fire with a purpose (side note - why can’t we call it a live fire or missile-ex)

 

[jmcquate]

Shouldn't the the ROI calculation be based on the cost of the target of the incoming vampire as opposed to the cost of the incoming vampire?

 

[Griz882]

Shouldn't the the ROI calculation be based on the cost of the target of the incoming vampire as opposed to the cost of the incoming vampire?

Depends on the bean being counted.

 

[jmcquate]

Griz, do you mean USN vs US flagged vs foreigned flagged?

 

[Griz882]

Griz, do you mean USN vs US flagged vs foreigned flagged?

To be academic, yes, you are spot on, but more specifically, I’m implying that the numbers are there to be manipulated by the end user. In a perfect world you can shoot down a $1,000,000 enemy airplane with a handful of $25 20mm rounds. Of course, that isn’t remotely close as it doesn’t account for the cost to develop and field the gun, train and pay the gunners, and then care for them with the VA for life - and so on and so forth. Costs are rarely calculated with genuine accuracy so most people choose to count only those beans that support their thesis.

 

[BigRed389]

And don’t forget, there’s significant operational learning occurring. There may be a cost difference; however, those ships and aircraft are shooting for real vice some heavily scripted live fire with a purpose (side note - why can’t we call it a live fire or missile-ex)

LOL I hate that acronym too.

Agreed on the operational value of live testing in a true tactical environment. Especially the Red Sea, the environmentals there are literally quite tough.

That said, the cost/qty curve is very very much not on our side.
Not only can we afford a fixed qty, we also can only build a certain rate.

I’m fairly certain, given Iran’s feeding of both Houthi and Russian consumption rates, that they can probably sustain the drone side longer than we can, assuming it continued indefinitely.

The ASCM side is less worrying, I’m pretty sure Iran isn’t shitting those out nearly as quickly as the low complexity drones.

There are definitely other potential solutions that could bring things back in our favor, besides “lasers”, APKWS seems to have promise. If anything, this only reinforces the need for those developmental systems, as well as to find ways to cut the traditional acquisition timeframes down when there are real urgent operational needs, and doubly so when there is real shooting going on.

 

[Flash]

Shouldn't the the ROI calculation be based on the cost of the target of the incoming vampire as opposed to the cost of the incoming vampire?

Yes and no, if a 'vampire' costs $50,000 and a country can make 500 of them then it does make sense to take the cost of the interceptors into account as well.

Depends on the bean being counted.

Also depends on whether or not the ship was even targeted.

There are definitely other potential solutions that could bring things back in our favor, besides “lasers”, APKWS seems to have promise. If anything, this only reinforces the need for those developmental systems, as well as to find ways to cut the traditional acquisition timeframes down when there are real urgent operational needs, and doubly so when there is real shooting going on.

Israel's Iron Dome (largely funded by us) is already there, with Tamir interceptor missiles costing only about ~$50,000-$100,000 a piece. The Army is also buying Coyote drone interceptors that cost about $100,000. The problem with both is that they have very short ranges, less than 10 miles, which is fine for point or last-ditch defense but too close for comfort if you are trying to kill incoming threats as soon as you see them.

 

[AllAmerican75]

Don’t assume that any or all of these engagements are using SM-2. There are other kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities available.

They're still orders of magnitude higher in cost than the drones. Even if the RAM or ESSM missiles engaged (I'm not confident they did, they're still a price mismatch. I believe RAM is cheapest and those are still 5 figures.

 

[Brett327]

They're still orders of magnitude higher in cost than the drones. Even if the RAM or ESSM missiles engaged (I'm not confident they did, they're still a price mismatch. I believe RAM is cheapest and those are still 5 figures.

I've heard about the guided/shotgun type round for the 5" gun, but don't know much about it. I think I read it was used in one of the earlier engagements. What can you tell us about that round that's public info?

 

[AllAmerican75]

I've heard about the guided/shotgun type round for the 5" gun, but don't know much about it. I think I read it was used in one of the earlier engagements. What can you tell us about that round that's public info?

IIRC that's the Mark 127 HE-CVT round which is, I believe, less expensive per round than most missiles in the US inventory. I was ecstatic that they were able to engage with the gun. It's been advertised as a capability for years but I've never seen it done or heard of anyone who's gotten to do it. On my first ship we hit a towed target with the 76mm but it took multiple passes and a ton of ammo.

 

[Flash]

They're still orders of magnitude higher in cost than the drones. Even if the RAM or ESSM missiles engaged (I'm not confident they did, they're still a price mismatch. I believe RAM is cheapest and those are still 5 figures.

That is true but it is also orders of magnitudes less than an SM-2/3 or Patriot.

I've heard about the guided/shotgun type round for the 5" gun, but don't know much about it. I think I read it was used in one of the earlier engagements. What can you tell us about that round that's public info?

IIRC that's the Mark 127 HE-CVT round which is, I believe, less expensive per round than most missiles in the US inventory. I was ecstatic that they were able to engage with the gun. It's been advertised as a capability for years but I've never seen it done or heard of anyone who's gotten to do it. On my first ship we hit a towed target with the 76mm but it took multiple passes and a ton of ammo.

Sanshikidan! Certainly not a new idea but a little bit more effective nowadays, I don't think the 'San Shiki' had a single confirmed aircraft kill. The Italians didn't have CIWS on several of their ships and used the OTO Melera 76mm instead with an airburst round to shoot down missiles. As with many things Italian I wasn't sure it it really worked or if it was for show (and always accompanied by considerable gesticulating).

As for an actual gun kill, I am not aware of any confirmed for the latest engagements. Lots of very expensive missiles have been shot off though.

 

[BigRed389]

That is true but it is also orders of magnitudes less than an SM-2/3 or Patriot.




Sanshikidan! Certainly not a new idea but a little bit more effective nowadays, I don't think the 'San Shiki' had a single confirmed aircraft kill. The Italians didn't have CIWS on several of their ships and used the OTO Melera 76mm instead with an airburst round to shoot down missiles. As with many things Italian I wasn't sure it it really worked or if it was for show (and always accompanied by considerable gesticulating).

As for an actual gun kill, I am not aware of any confirmed for the latest engagements. Lots of very expensive missiles have been shot off though.

It’s unfortunately not true. RAMs are also damn near a million $ unit cost at like 900K.

Shipboard missiles don’t really do the whole high/low cost mix. We could if we wanted to…but in line with this thread topic, the limited number of ships and spare rounds has lead to prioritization of high end peer fight weapons due to only having so many rounds to take to the fight.

On the gun side, it’s routine for ships undertaking major Combat System shakedowns to shoot 5” at Lear towed targets (similar in profile to the more frequently observed CiWS exercise), with Miss Distance Indicators to score “hits” and misses from the round fuzing. With the newest gun rounds, they objectively do pretty well.

 

[Flash]

It’s unfortunately not true. RAMs are also damn near a million $ unit cost at like 900K.

Bleah, can't we do anything cheap?! I think a lower cost missile you can stuff into a RAM launcher could be a workable solution, certainly seems possible if the Israelis can do it (with our money no less).

 

[BigRed389]

Bleah, can't we do anything cheap?! I think a lower cost missile you can stuff into a RAM launcher could be a workable solution, certainly seems possible if the Israelis can do it (with our money no less).

That’s the thing…we probably could, if Big Navy were willing to tie up launcher space with a non-high end fight weapon. RAM Block 2 and newer are expensive for a reason, theyre actually pretty nasty for a Sidewinder-esque missile, like you’d expect a weapon designed to backstop defense against high supersonic sea skimming missiles doing crazy 3D terminal maneuvers to be.

I’d actually go off the wall here, and suggest standalone containerized defense kits to field Iron Dome or Coyote or other low end interceptors on the merchant vessels. Containerized so you can rotate the systems for ships transiting through, maybe even air lift compatible. Or maybe make the Army or Marines site their defensive systems onboard those cargo ships, and get some real world OT in.

 

[AllAmerican75]

That’s the thing…we probably could, if Big Navy were willing to tie up launcher space with a non-high end fight weapon. RAM Block 2 and newer are expensive for a reason, theyre actually pretty nasty for a Sidewinder-esque missile, like you’d expect a weapon designed to backstop defense against high supersonic sea skimming missiles doing crazy 3D terminal maneuvers to be.

I’d actually go off the wall here, and suggest standalone containerized defense kits to field Iron Dome or Coyote or other low end interceptors on the merchant vessels. Containerized so you can rotate the systems for ships transiting through, maybe even air lift compatible. Or maybe make the Army or Marines site their defensive systems onboard those cargo ships, and get some real world OT in.

Good thing we're working on containerized launchers: https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/30/us-navy-missile-launcher/

Surprised we didn't do this sooner.