Do most country have access to Uranium ore? It’s pretty damn plentiful right? Industrial capacity is usually the limiting factor beyond treaties, correct?
It’s pretty plentiful and most modern nations have access through their nuclear power programs. More about how good they are at nuclear technology in general, as in any case you either have to process either raw stuff or make weapons grade plutonium, and that tends to go side by side with how mature your nuke power industry is.
The NPT theoretically binds everybody who plays in nuke power to be inspected to not do nuke weapon stuff, but if freaking N Korea, India and Pakistan in the 90’s could do it, and possibly Israel covertly…
Canada actually has native uranium reserves AND a lot of nuke reactors for their population size.
I said it before, but zero doubt in my mind Germany has an unofficial deterrent before the end of 2028. If Ukraine survives in a recognizable fashion, same for them.
So the thing with the Euros is I think they’d probably more likely go for a pan-European shield. Thinking something more like the Cold War. We still maintain tac nuke deterrence in NATO…that’s a key piece to deterring Russia on the Continent from doing their own nuke escalation. It’s not a big leap for them to do their own cooperative nuke sharing program, leveraging the French program to help them get started, to replace US B61s.
Turkey is a wild card…the EU may be less comfortable with bringing them in (or..Hungary), but have little doubt Erodgan’s had them taking their own steps based on what they’ve been doing with defense and nuclear industrial investment in general.
The Pacific is a bit more of a free for all.
I think Japan will take more unease building about US relations to let go of their cultural hang up about it, even though they could do it.
S Korea, I think is 50/50 of already being at near threshold capability. Due to having a crazy neighbor, they tend to prioritize counter offense. Independent capability has been popular since Trump 45 started to be friendlier with the NorKs. Hell, they already have a submarine with a SLBM.
Taiwan’s got killed in the crib in ‘88 and they are probably like Ukraine - too little too late.
Australia is unlikely. They’ve also historically been very opposed to nukes, and have leaned on having an alliance with us very strongly.
