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The end of NATO?

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
You didn’t know that 9/11 was an inside job?

Echoing back to Russia...

In late 1906, Rasputin began acting as a faith healer for Nicholas' and Alexandra's only son, Alexei Nikolaevich, who suffered from haemophilia. He was a divisive figure at court, seen by some Russians as a mystic, visionary and prophet, and by others as a religious charlatan.
Saw this in the news, journalists must have read my post.

Laura Loomer dictating who gets to work on the National Security Council or run the National Security Agency is more in a class with Rasputin’s influence on the court of Nicholas II — sinister, pernicious, destructive and entirely revealing of the moral rot in the Oval Office.

Probably why Hooters is in the news too, Thanks Mad Dog.
 

Hotdogs

I don’t care if I hurt your feelings
pilot
The first time I heard Zeihan, I was like, "Oh, this is interesting." Then I realized that's just his schtick and none of it is based in factual reality.

His books are fairly interesting reads, and largely follow commonly accepted western economic and geopolitical discourse.

They’re a pretty solid recap on how we got to the situation we’re in now. Good reads for those who are not educated for more detailed macroeconomic analysis. His predictive assessments are much less certain and he definitely has a shtick though and isn’t without criticism.
 

Randy Daytona

Cold War Relic
pilot
Super Moderator
Would you say a weapon has outlived its usefulness because you won your last gunfight? Interesting that you bring up security…

What is currently being foisted on us by the Trump administration is a net negative for the US, as we rapidly create voids for others to fill with their currency, products, and culture.

Mark my words, our standard of living will fall as a result. Our security is also at risk. But hey, it feels good because “own the libs”, right?

Emotionally-driven policy is bad, no matter who is running things.
I am curious to hear your opinions on trade policy, foreign policy and domestic politics - to start with trade policy I will offer this:

This has nothing to do with “owning the libs”. If there is one constant position President Trump has held since the 1980’s (when he was a Democrat) was the need for tariffs to protect US manufacturing. The current US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer is fully onboard- as expected since he was the chief of staff to Trump’s first trade representative, Robert Lighthizer. (Note: it has been rumored that Jamieson Greer - JG - was the person intended to be on the Signal call, not Jeffrey Goldberg - JG. The other rumor that Signal was being used was that it can’t be subpoenaed- I will leave that question to the more tech savvy people to amplify)

As for standard of living, the US working class’s standard of living has been falling since the 1970’s-1980’s. Wages adjusted for inflation are down, housing costs up, etc. I would suggest that the indicator to watch is not the stock market, but rather if the dollar weakens (ala Plaza Accord of 1985) to boost manufacturing and if interest rates drop (reducing mortgages, car payments and credit card debt).

The global system setup by the US is now almost a century old. When it was formed, US GDP and manufacturing was 50% of the combined global output; we were the largest creditor in the world. We had a 6,000 ship Navy, an air force of 50,000 airplanes and a monopoly on the atomic bomb - all built upon a system of high tariffs from the mid 19th century to WW2. To add, China was a non-factor and populations were youthful and increasing.

None of that is true today.

Here are a few articles in the center- left NYT and left Guardian that discuss, as well as a throwback a speech by Representative Nancy Pelosi.





The first time I heard Zeihan, I was like, "Oh, this is interesting." Then I realized that's just his schtick and none of it is based in factual reality.

From your perspective, which part of that 10 minute clip was factually inaccurate?
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
From your perspective, which part of that 10 minute clip was factually inaccurate?
You see, Randy, I haven't previously commented on the contents of the clip, so I won't be providing you with a pithy analysis of Zeihan's takes. That's the beauty of having formed an opinion about someone based on experience. It doesn't matter whether what they say is correct or not. I will dismiss Zeihan's opinion based on whether I view him as a reliable source. It's the same principle that allows me to dismiss your opinions, as generally flawed.

This saves me the time of having to weed through bad ideas, and allows me to focus on content that actually adds value to the conversation. It's the same principle that allows me to completely dismiss every word that comes out our Ward Carroll's mouth, even though he may actually get it right once in a while.
 

ChuckMK23

Standing by for the RIF !
pilot
Sho was in my cohort at Boston University NROTC, a year behind me and ended up just a few months behind me in flight school. She went to HC-1 after winging, but later transitioned to the H-46.

She was the last of my Navy ROTC cohort to remain on active duty. And the only other GO/FO from my NROTC cohort (Marine Gen Paul Kennedy was in the class ahead of me)

She was deep selected and was sent to Harvard Kennedy School whilst still an LT.

A loss for NATO

 

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
You see, Randy, I haven't previously commented on the contents of the clip, so I won't be providing you with a pithy analysis of Zeihan's takes. That's the beauty of having formed an opinion about someone based on experience. It doesn't matter whether what they say is correct or not. I will dismiss Zeihan's opinion based on whether I view him as a reliable source. It's the same principle that allows me to dismiss your opinions, as generally flawed.

This saves me the time of having to weed through bad ideas, and allows me to focus on content that actually adds value to the conversation. It's the same principle that allows me to completely dismiss every word that comes out our Ward Carroll's mouth, even though he may actually get it right once in a while.
Brett, it is somewhat amusing, and somewhat sad, to see you treat people (albeit virtually), like you are the Dean of some "Air Warriors University" while you evaluate them on their dissertation of some Masters/PhD level topic that only you are the oracle of. To hear you comment, one would think that there is some UCMJ infraction that necessitates a punitive letter of caution/reprimand to scold those you deem unworthy based on their proletariat level post.

You know, this is the internet, right? I mean, you can be less of a dick, and try to inform and educate others based on your knowledge, skill, and experience, right?

OK. i'm being a dick right now, I get that, I mean after all, I will never be as smart, or as wise as the AW senior staff.

When you finally get your vineyard, and tasting room, up and running in eastern Oregon, I hope your Pinot Noir is less pernicious than your posts here.

It's good to be King, isn't it?

Smiles, humor, love, and peace 🙂 🤣❤️☮️
 
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Faded Float Coat

Suck Less
pilot
@Randy Daytona couple of dissenting thoughts/opinions. Standard of living has been declining? I suppose that depends on how you measure it. I live on the west coast, but when I go visit my family in the rural deep south, I see brand new F-150s, 60" TVs in every living room, vacations to the beach, and a whole host of assorted living comforts (aka choices) made by people who, according to census data, have household incomes under $100K/year. One could make a pretty decent argument that middle-of-the-bell-curve American families have a higher standard of living now than ever before precisely because goods are cheaper. And why are they cheaper? I wonder if open and free trade has anything to do with that?

Now, i suppose one could subscribe to this asinine theory, but I think we can all recognize that an NIH scientist ≠ garment maker, nor should they.

The utopian 1950s era economy that some in this admin (and their apologists) long for is gone. To bring it back requires a regression away from the very things Americans want and consume. All of it? No, not necessarily, but many of the ideas being pedaled, be they economic or social, are of a by-gone era and do not reflect an accurate understanding of the populace and their personal economic preferences or needs.

If someone actually had a magic wand (actually, not just pretending they did....) and could stand up iPhone factories, TV factories, and make 100% tooth-to-tail CONUS built automobiles, what do you think that would do to the affordability of those goods? Get to a point where F-150s start costing $95k and this admin is gonna realize blaming everything on the previous admin, immigrants, and "libtards" has a very short political shelf life, even in areas that remain deeply red. This admin is making the 2026 midterms a very painful proposition for its own party. And, if the DNC can get its head out of its collective ass, 2028 is shaping up to be rather interesting as well....One of the reasons they failed so spectacularly in 2024 was their dogmatic defense of institutions (define that as you will); now imagine having to be on the campaign trail defending a calamitous economic policy.

How's this relate to the thread, NATO and Europe.....? A strong US economy is vital to the success of both from geo-political perspective - even if all member states contributed 10% of GDP....
 
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number9

Well-Known Member
Contributor
The problem with the "standards of living are declining" argument is that you need to cherry-pick the data within an inch of its life in order to do so.

In the overwhelming majority of metrics, people are better off today than they were historically. The number of people in poverty, life expectancies, purchasing-power-parity adjusted GDP, whatever.

Americans in the aggregate have never been richer than they are today.
 
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