For helo guys, NPC has an 'unofficial' but very real pecking order of 1st shore tour jobs. Admiral's aide is one of the few non-instructor jobs that is competitive - but obviously the risk/reward of that job depends entirely on which one you work for.
The JOIC or overseas thing is new, maybe the norm now but not in the past. A flying tour, at least VT (station pilot or the like isn't good) isn't going to hurt as long as one comes out competitive. Two of my last 4 VRC skippers were VT IP's (VT-4 and VT-3). The VRC-40 Skipper 2 years ago was a VT guy as well. Last skipper was a joint guy with war college and a joint tour. Current CO is an FRS, former CAG and AIRPAC paddles. Current XO is a former FRS/war college/joint guy. The wave of the future is set, joint. For paddles, going VT (preferably FRS)and getting your training qual then going to a CAG paddles tour is another excellent way to go for the boat players.