Hillary will have a tough time..she is the most polarizing candidate by far and Dems are troubled by her craven and obvious politicking...her calculated pro-war stance, her co-sponsorship of a flag-burning bill with Utah Sen. Robert Bennett(
), all naked attempts to get a bit more "blue". The nomination will not be sewn up for her.. she willl have to work for it.
It hasn't been mentioned but you know what was the big issue last election was: The 800 lb Gorilla known as
The War in Iraq. If things remain as they are in a year, without noticable improvement it will remain the central issue.
So my prediction: look at the money (Barack and Hillary are looking to be the front-runners in fund raising), look at stances on the the war, and look at charisma and the ability to connect with people. Obama has cash, a consistent anti-war stance, and tons of charisma (I think people have brought their crippled children to his rallys to have him heal them). And his big negative...his inexperience? It could be a plus...no voting record to attack.
Because of this, I see Barack as being the Dem Candidate and winning.