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31OCT22 SNA/SNFO BOARD

C

carviator

SNA
elariosa95 said:
I vaguely remember seeing something about this, but has anyone seen/done any data analysis on previous board results?

I'm curious to see what factors are most likely to affect applicants' chances of getting selected. For example, if someone with a 9 PFAR and 2 years of management experience and someone with a 6/7 PFAR and a few years AD with leadership experience went head-to-head, who would end up getting the spot?

Convention would tell me the 9 PFAR gets it because that's the highest score possible and they also have some experience in managing people, but I'm seeing a few people from the May board with 6s/7s who got picked up and are AD.

I'm not one to question the board's decisions and I don't mean to scare anyone else applying, but I'm just interested in finding out what boxes one has to check off to get a PROREC-Y and if there are any exceptions or special cases.

Edit: I also remember someone making a program of some sort where you input your scores and it tells you your chance of getting selected. Does anyone else remember seeing this or is the heat just getting to me?

Edit 2: I'm on my lunch break so I did some digging. It turns out that someone made the model for the May 2022 board and it's about 93% accurate. The guy who made it tested his own scores and the model predicted he would get picked up; sure enough, he got selected. Here's the link to the post: https://www.airwarriors.com/community/threads/23may2022-sna-snfo-board.48542/post-1059662
Click to expand...
Also be careful drawing conclusions about AD specifically from the May board and beyond. The ISPP was introduced before the May board and is skewing AD results. I'd wager about 60% of AD applicants applied via ISPP. I didn't, but I definitely would have if I was eligible because it's basically a 100% selection rate for AD only.
 
Maze_soba

Maze_soba

Well-Known Member
@elariosa95 Thanks for the shoutout haha.
I'm going to retrain the ML model with the May board data when I have a moment, and will post it up on the May board thread and this one!

Couple of upgrades to make:
- Will be cleaning out ISPP data from the May board results because it will heavily skew results (not that this was a super scientific endeavour to begin with, but to improve it a little)
- If I get to it, do some regex stuff to assign STEM/non-STEM degrees
- if i really feel like it, rebuilding the training dataset using @Mouselovr collection of past board results

If you think of any more improvements, please let me know.

I've gotten a more than few requests to run scores through it, so please know I'll get to all of them once that's done.
 
C

carviator

SNA
WhiteLotus5125 said:
Sorry if this is a stupid civi question but, what exactly is ISPP? Some kind of enlisted to officer program? How does one become eligible for that while AD?
Click to expand...

Basically if you are AD and meet all the criteria of both SNA/SNFO AND ISPP's program authorizations, and get an endorsement from a Rear Admiral or higher, then you have a 99.999% chance of getting a pro rec Y. There are ambiguities as to how it works cause it's new as far as quotas and true selection rates.
 
Kyle42

Kyle42

Well-Known Member
So I know we all got word from our recruiters saying the Aug board is off but has it been removed from the schedule yet?
 
elariosa95

elariosa95

SNA (Primary - VT-6)
Maze_soba said:
@elariosa95 Thanks for the shoutout haha.
I'm going to retrain the ML model with the May board data when I have a moment, and will post it up on the May board thread and this one!

Couple of upgrades to make:
- Will be cleaning out ISPP data from the May board results because it will heavily skew results (not that this was a super scientific endeavour to begin with, but to improve it a little)
- If I get to it, do some regex stuff to assign STEM/non-STEM degrees
- if i really feel like it, rebuilding the training dataset using @Mouselovr collection of past board results

If you think of any more improvements, please let me know.

I've gotten a more than few requests to run scores through it, so please know I'll get to all of them once that's done.
Click to expand...
@space_sailor mentioned earlier that your model from earlier seemed to pick age as a major factor in getting selected (probably correlation, not causation), do you think the model would run differently if that were taken out?

Outside of qualifying a person for an officer slot, I’m not sure if age plays a significant role in selection. I could be wrong, so I’d love to hear your thoughts on it
 
E

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
elariosa95 said:
I vaguely remember seeing something about this, but has anyone seen/done any data analysis on previous board results?

I'm curious to see what factors are most likely to affect applicants' chances of getting selected. For example, if someone with a 9 PFAR and 2 years of management experience and someone with a 6/7 PFAR and a few years AD with leadership experience went head-to-head, who would end up getting the spot?

Convention would tell me the 9 PFAR gets it because that's the highest score possible and they also have some experience in managing people, but I'm seeing a few people from the May board with 6s/7s who got picked up and are AD.

I'm not one to question the board's decisions and I don't mean to scare anyone else applying, but I'm just interested in finding out what boxes one has to check off to get a PROREC-Y and if there are any exceptions or special cases.

Edit: I also remember someone making a program of some sort where you input your scores and it tells you your chance of getting selected. Does anyone else remember seeing this or is the heat just getting to me?

Edit 2: I'm on my lunch break so I did some digging. It turns out that someone made the model for the May 2022 board and it's about 93% accurate. The guy who made it tested his own scores and the model predicted he would get picked up; sure enough, he got selected. Here's the link to the post: https://www.airwarriors.com/community/threads/23may2022-sna-snfo-board.48542/post-1059662
Click to expand...
NRC keeps that data and several years ago we were lucky enough to get our hands on it, basically the higher the PFAR or FOFAR as appropriate means the better chances of selection.

There are things that can skew it of course, such as a non-medical waiver, low GPA that raises concerns, age issues, etc......

Over the years the data has still held true though, but like all data there will be exceptions. Think of it like this, the higher the PFAR or FOFAR the more confidence you can have in a positive result.
 
E

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
WhiteLotus5125 said:
What types of non-medical waivers would be concerning to the board?

What would they give a ProRec-N for if the rest of the application is positive?
Click to expand...
There could be many, law violation, drug use other than MJ experimentation, age, etc.......

Any non-medical waiver when a person receives a "N" could be the cause if they have a decent PFAR or FOFAR.
 
cgoss99

cgoss99

SNA
My instructor who got me my instrument rating is off to the airlines…tonight is his farewell bar crawl. So as I sit here scrolling Air warriors with a cold beer in hand, curious as to what kinda beer y’all prefer ?
 
elariosa95

elariosa95

SNA (Primary - VT-6)
cgoss99 said:
My instructor who got me my instrument rating is off to the airlines…tonight is his farewell bar crawl. So as I sit here scrolling Air warriors with a cold beer in hand, curious as to what kinda beer y’all prefer ?
Click to expand...
I’m drinking Hamm’s right now, but that’s only because they don’t have Montucky lmao
 

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