It will be interesting to see how this year's O5 board works out, but there are plenty of people at my squadron who are post-DH tour O4s wondering what to do next. The "standard community pipeline" for all communities gets kind of thin once you don't screen for CO. A lot of times it just says "SEA/OVERSEAS." The guys I work with were talking about how them having to go back to sea to make 20 and retire as an O4 is a lot of work for not a lot of payoff. In the past you at least stood a very solid chance of making O5 and running out the clock to retire as a CDR. After last year's O5 select rate, who knows?
Word from the detailers is that the O-5 rate will improve again in the next two years. That was as of April-ish. I wouldn't be surprised if the truth changed again.
GatorDev,
It easy for you to find it amusing AFTER you got yours. DH has to be one of the shittiest jobs in the Navy. Why would a guy want to take on a shit tour (depending on who you work for) and 2-3 more years of BS without being compensated when they can get out of the Navy and do something else. Yes, I am well aware that their is BS in the civilian world. However, its easier to take that BS knowing you'll be at home most nights, wont miss important family events and can walk anytime if you want. If the economy even shows the slightest improvement in the next year or so, the Navy is going to have some of its best and brightest going elsewhere.
Ahh, but you see, there was no guarentee I was getting a bonus the route I went (and the bonus I did get was SIGNIFICANTLY less than $125K), and yes, I knew I was rolling straight into a DH tour (which I'm now finishing). In fact, at the time, I was giving up $125K to go do the "same" job AND go to sea. That's when I would get the questions of "why are you doing this again?" The answer was simple. I skipped a boat tour, was pretty bullet-proof on an IA/GSA and it was still flying orders.
You're kind of proving my point. Even back when it was $125K, $25K/year isn't "that" much money after taxes. I certainly would like to get it, but it didn't make me stay on "the path" and and as a result, I GREATLY reduced my chances of making O-5. I think people SHOULD vote with their feet, for all the reasons you mention. My amusement is how generally people in the military are...let's say socially conservative, and don't like how the government gives handouts to the public because it makes the public come to expect it. But once the "military people" (Pilots/NFOs) don't get their money (which is not guarenteed each year), everyone gets upset.
I know it's not that simple and I understand what Scoob is saying. But it's still kind of funny.