Europe under extreme duress

[vxc961]

Unfortunately there is also a small but not insignificant slice of folks that admire his governing style and at least some of his views.



I honestly don't know. So much that previously had been taboo has been rationalized by so many that a small tactical nuke or several used on the battlefield may not have the pariah effect on Putin as most assume.

I disagree, but do see your point. Russia invaded Georgia and Ukraine and nothing happened. Russia used a nerve agent on UK soil and stuff happened, but it was apparently worth it. Russia shot down an airliner over Ukraine.

But even China has come out and told Russia to pump the brakes on nuclear rhetoric and made comments about Russia's recent change to nuclear doctrine saying nukes shouldn't be used. I wish those other examples had put a stop on things, but I have a hard time believing Putin could use a nuke and get away with it.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Unfortunately there is also a small but not insignificant slice of folks that admire his governing style and at least some of his views.



I honestly don't know. So much that previously had been taboo has been rationalized by so many that a small tactical nuke or several used on the battlefield may not have the pariah effect on Putin as most assume.

This might be the scariest comment in the thread. In today's world, things that used to be true often aren't anymore, and with stunning speed.

 

[Griz882]

One of the problems with crafting a peace proposal for Putin is that he has no exit ramp. When he started this war Ukraine was weak and had a small army. Today their active force is close to 900,000 and has thousands of battle hardened veterans. Most of the old Soviet trash has been replaced by better western equipment and several nations have promised continued training even after the war ends. Even a treaty that offered status quo ante bellum would be a disastrous loss for Putin. In essence all he has is a nuclear threat. Should strong enough leadership come along to call his bluff, he is toast. There also simply isn’t a single western leader so enthralled by Putin’s “tough guy”’style who would dare work on a treaty that would surrender even more Ukrainian land.

People opened today’s discussion thinking this is how WWIII starts…maybe it is. China isn’t ready and Iran is back on their heels from Israel’s response, so maybe this is the time. I’m glad I’m not “in the room,” but I fear there is a fight ahead.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Words.

 

[Spekkio]

I'm sure they'll integrate well into that well-oiled Russian meat grinder.

The fact that isolationists ignore stuff like this, and are willing to sacrifice UKR is appalling. The West should be calling their bluff, and allow our weapons to be used for deeper strikes, IMO....I'm willing to bet we won't all die in a nuclear fire, if we do.

If we let RUS, China, DPRK, Iran prevail in UKR, it will be a stain on our country, and not end there.

The argument to negotiate a truce isn't about isolationism, although it makes a good sound bite on TV for voters who can't understand nuance.

It would be very dangerous if Russia spun up its full capabilities instead of sending convicts and ethnically undesirable draftees into a conflict. Ukraine is doing Russia a favor by killing these people and Russia can win the war of attrition.

A nation's military potential isn't measured by AD soldiers today but the amount of fighting aged adults available. Ukraine doesn't stand much of a chance in a protracted conflict. The West is hoping that the conflict will become unpopular in Russia and Putin will withdraw due to domestic political pressure to preserve his power before Ukraine crumbles. That's a pipe dream.

 

[JTS11]

The argument to negotiate a truce isn't about isolationism, although it makes a good sound bite on TV for voters who can't understand nuance.

It would be very dangerous if Russia spun up its full capabilities instead of sending convicts and ethnically undesirable draftees into a conflict. Ukraine is doing Russia a favor by killing these people and Russia can win the war of attrition.

Huh? I guess I don't understand nuance much. Please explain more to all of us.

Is UKR calling for truce talks? No.

Are you kidding me with this talk of "when they spin up their full capabilities"? What does that look like? I guess they're just half-assing it now with over 600k casualties during their 3 day SMO. 🤫

 

[Spekkio]

Huh? I guess I don't understand nuance much. Please explain more to all of us.

Is UKR calling for truce talks? No.

Are you kidding me with this talk of "when they spin up their full capabilities"? What does that look like?

The US policies under debate are continuing to arm Ukraine for a protracted conflict or withdraw support to bring Zelenskyy to the negotiation table.

Russia has over 5 million fighting aged (18-40) males, and they're using people into their 50s. They've lost about 1% of them. To a casualty adverse country like the US this is a lot. To a Russian this is a small war. At least to the degree that we can believe any casualty estimates at this point.

 

[JTS11]

The US policies under debate are continuing to arm Ukraine for a protracted conflict or withdraw support to bring Zelenskyy to the negotiation table.

Russia has over 5 million fighting aged (18-40) males, and they're using people into their 50s. They've lost about 1% of them. To a casualty adverse country like the US this is a lot. To a Russian this is a small war.

Who's debating our policies? Seems like a few on the isolationist right.

I'll concede your point that the Russians don't give a shit about their personnel. But this isn't the 1940's, and Putin politically wouldn't survive some kind of full mobilization. Hence DPRK troops, African and SE Asian conscripts who were hoodwinked into signing up.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I saw a video of DPRK soldiers going through Russia’s version of CIF. Looked miserable

 

[Spekkio]

Who's debating our policies? Seems like a few on the isolationist right.

I'll concede your point that the Russians don't give a shit about their personnel. But this isn't the 1940's, and Putin politically wouldn't survive some kind of full mobilization. Hence DPRK troops, African and SE Asian conscripts who were hoodwinked into signing up.

Putin is extremely popular and moreso after the war.

Imagine if the US saw every opposition candidate to the current President as a KGB implant. Now imagine that foreign support to the opposition in a war further solidifies that belief.

Basically, imagine that 70% of Americans suspected that Mitt Romney was bought by Al Qaeda when running against Obama and now you understand Russian politics. Putin isn't great, but he's a Russian nationalist and people trust that he's free from CIA influence.

Russia is saving its A game for the Suwarki Gap invasion, which will happen before China even thinks about seriously taking Taiwan by force. They're happy to trade 1:1 casualties in Ukraine because Ukraine runs out of people first and Russia learns more about future tactics in the Baltics.

 

[JTS11]

Russia is saving its A game for the Suwarki Gap invasion, which will happen before China even thinks about seriously taking Taiwan by force

I love how you think they have some kind of A game in reserve. I'll leave it at that.

 

[hscs]

Putin wouldn’t be using NK soldiers if he didn’t need them to avoid the political fallout from a full call up.

NK gets something out of this, likely technical support, which is pretty scary.

I see no reason to over complicate this.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Russia is saving its A game for the Suwarki Gap invasion, which will happen before China even thinks about seriously taking Taiwan by force.

How did you arrive at this assessment?

 

[Griz882]

They're happy to trade 1:1 casualties in Ukraine because Ukraine runs out of people first and Russia learns more about future tactics in the Baltics.

I should think not. Russia would love to be trading bodies on a 1:1 basis, but they are looking at about 7 dead to every 1 Ukrainian KIA. I also doubt Putin could draft 500,000 men, much less one million…when he tried to draft 300,000 there were riots in the cities…https://www.npr.org/2022/09/24/1124939236/russia-protest-putin-mobilization-draft-ukraine-war and while he may have nabbed close to 300,000, over 200,000 left the country permanently. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/world/europe/russia-draft-putin.html

I get that any opening military operation can run into issues…things fall apart…but inefficiency and blundering is not a sustainable TTP while you sit on your “A Game.” Let’s accept it, Russia is a paper tiger. Sure….you can get a nasty paper cut, but Russia isn’t attacking anything worthwhile in the next 20 years.

 

[GroundPounder]

I saw a video of DPRK soldiers going through Russia’s version of CIF. Looked miserable

Anyone, anywhere, going through CIF is not only going to look miserable, they WILL be miserable.

" Sorry, can't take that canteen pouch, the snap is the wrong colour....."