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Europe under extreme duress

Flash

SEVAL/ECMO
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It would be very dangerous if Russia spun up its full capabilities instead of sending convicts and ethnically undesirable draftees into a conflict. Ukraine is doing Russia a favor by killing these people and Russia can win the war of attrition.
Russia is saving its A game for the Suwarki Gap invasion, which will happen before China even thinks about seriously taking Taiwan by force. They're happy to trade 1:1 casualties in Ukraine because Ukraine runs out of people first and Russia learns more about future tactics in the Baltics.

If you think Russia hasn't sent its 'A game' to Ukraine you are sorely mistaken.

A nation's military potential isn't measured by AD soldiers today but the amount of fighting aged adults available. Ukraine doesn't stand much of a chance in a protracted conflict. The West is hoping that the conflict will become unpopular in Russia and Putin will withdraw due to domestic political pressure to preserve his power before Ukraine crumbles. That's a pipe dream.

I don't think that's the West's hope, I think the hope is that it becomes too costly for Russia to continue to wage war.
 

A decent analysis of what Putin’s “3-day lightning assault” goals are.

I think the goals are vague enough that he’s got a pretty easy off-ramp. Just say they’ve de-nazified the country, showed NATO they’re willing to fight, and proved the west hates poor Russia.
 

JTS11

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Anyone, anywhere, going through CIF is not only going to look miserable, they WILL be miserable.

" Sorry, can't take that canteen pouch, the snap is the wrong colour....."
I have PTSD from my final CIF checkout prior to retirement. For some reason, the VA wouldn't give me a rating on that condition. 😆
 

sevenhelmet

Low calorie attack from the Heartland
pilot
Anyone, anywhere, going through CIF is not only going to look miserable, they WILL be miserable.

" Sorry, can't take that canteen pouch, the snap is the wrong colour....."

OK- what is CIF and why does it make people miserable? Google suggested a few things, but most don’t make much sense in your context.

Construction Industry Federation?
California Interscholastic Federation?
Commanders In-Extremis Forces?
 

cfam

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Central Issue Facility (where they issue out gear to people unlucky enough to not be in the Navy). It was a stop on my AFRICOM check-in, but only long enough for them to tell me I wasted my time. I’ve heard horror stories of people being unable to retire until CIF verified that all of the gear they’d been issued throughout their career had been returned.
 

Gatordev

Well-Known Member
pilot
Site Admin
Contributor
I've been occasionally watching a channel (Preston Stewart) on YT that's pretty even keeled and seems to be well-researched. In the past, he's spent a lot of time on Telegram and the like researching and reporting on the various Storm Z units, as well as analyzing how Russia has disbanded many of them and incorporated the tactics into regular units.

Here's a video he just put on on the NK entry. I can appreciate his more nuanced analysis stating, "we don't really know what this means yet."

Also, the random footage of Kim is a bonus.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
I'm sure they'll integrate well into that well-oiled Russian meat grinder.

The fact that isolationists ignore stuff like this, and are willing to sacrifice UKR is appalling. The West should be calling their bluff, and allow our weapons to be used for deeper strikes, IMO....I'm willing to bet we won't all die in a nuclear fire, if we do.

If we let RUS, China, DPRK, Iran prevail in UKR, it will be a stain on our country, and not end there.
Many of the anti-Ukraine people are not isolationist, they argue that Russia can't take Ukraine now, so Ukraine can't fall to it. Many also view Ukraine and Zelensky as no better than Russia (I disagree with this but it's a view many on the Right hold). Many also resent the money being spent on Ukraine while the southern border is wide open.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
The argument to negotiate a truce isn't about isolationism, although it makes a good sound bite on TV for voters who can't understand nuance.

It would be very dangerous if Russia spun up its full capabilities instead of sending convicts and ethnically undesirable draftees into a conflict. Ukraine is doing Russia a favor by killing these people and Russia can win the war of attrition.

A nation's military potential isn't measured by AD soldiers today but the amount of fighting aged adults available. Ukraine doesn't stand much of a chance in a protracted conflict. The West is hoping that the conflict will become unpopular in Russia and Putin will withdraw due to domestic political pressure to preserve his power before Ukraine crumbles. That's a pipe dream
Spun up their full capabilities? Pretty sure they already have spun them up about as much as they can. If Putin could be pumping out tens of thousands of just T-34s to bum-rush the Ukrainians with, I'm sure he would. Also I would dispute that they could win a protracted conflict. Maybe right now, but if Ukraine gets better weapons and supplies and develops true airpower capability, they could probably hold off any Russian meat assaults.
Russia is saving its A game for the Suwarki Gap invasion, which will happen before China even thinks about seriously taking Taiwan by force. They're happy to trade 1:1 casualties in Ukraine because Ukraine runs out of people first and Russia learns more about future tactics in the Baltics.

By this point in the Second World War, the Soviet military had gone from basically using bum-rush tactics of tanks and troops against the Germans to having reversed and inflicted massive defeats on the German forces. In terms of tactical skill, professionalism, deception, and logistics, they had massively improved over what they had been when Germany (well the German-led Axis) first invaded.

Putin's forces, however, are still pretty much just as bad as they were back when they first invaded February 24, 2022. They don't seem to have learned a whole lot. So I am pretty sure that this "is" about the extent of their A game. They have wasted precious tanks and vehicles, tens of thousands of them, all lost due to ineptitude.
 

hscs

Registered User
pilot
Spun up their full capabilities? Pretty sure they already have spun them up about as much as they can. If Putin could be pumping out tens of thousands of just T-34s to bum-rush the Ukrainians with, I'm sure he would. Also I would dispute that they could win a protracted conflict. Maybe right now, but if Ukraine gets better weapons and supplies and develops true airpower capability, they could probably hold off any Russian meat assaults.


By this point in the Second World War, the Soviet military had gone from basically using bum-rush tactics of tanks and troops against the Germans to having reversed and inflicted massive defeats on the German forces. In terms of tactical skill, professionalism, deception, and logistics, they had massively improved over what they had been when Germany (well the German-led Axis) first invaded.

Putin's forces, however, are still pretty much just as bad as they were back when they first invaded February 24, 2022. They don't seem to have learned a whole lot. So I am pretty sure that this "is" about the extent of their A game. They have wasted precious tanks and vehicles, tens of thousands of them, all lost due to ineptitude.
And OBTW we were supplying the Soviets in WW 2…on the order of thousands of tanks.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
And OBTW we were supplying the Soviets in WW 2…on the order of thousands of tanks.
Thousands of tanks (although the Soviets also produced tens of thousands of their own tanks), but also tons (literally) of food, fuel, hundreds of thousands of Jeeps and trucks, boots, radios, machine tools, steel, locomotives and box cars and rails, airplanes, etc...
 

jmcquate

Well-Known Member
Contributor
Most of the tanks we supplied were M-3s that the Soviets hated. They were quickly relegated to a training role.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Liked only because I am too old and too fat to get into the fight. But I fear the comment is shockingly close to the truth.
Excuses, excuses. Old guys are the ideal:

I am over 60 and the Armed Forces thinks I’m too old to track down terrorists. In today’s military thinking, you can’t be older than 42 to join the military. They’ve got the whole thing backwards.

Instead of sending 18-year olds off to fight, they ought to take us old guys. You shouldn’t be able to join a military unit until you’re at least 35.

For starters, researchers say 18-year-olds think about the opposite sex every 10 seconds. Old guys only think about women a couple of times a month, leaving us more than 280,000 additional seconds per day to concentrate on the enemy.

Young guys haven’t lived long enough to be cranky, and a cranky soldier is a dangerous soldier. ‘My back hurts! I can’t sleep, I’m tired and hungry.’ We are bad-tempered and impatient, and maybe letting us hunt down some terrorists that desperately deserve it will make us feel better and shut us up for a while.

An 18-year-old doesn’t even like to get up before 10 a.m. Old guys always get up early to head to the john, so what the heck. Besides, like I said, I’m tired and can’t sleep and since I’m already up, I may as well be up looking for some fanatical so-and-so.

If captured we couldn’t spill the beans because we’d forget where we put them. In fact, name, rank, and serial number would be a real brainteaser.

Boot camp would be easier for old guys too. We’re used to getting screamed and yelled at and we’re used to soft food. We’ve also developed an appreciation for guns. We’ve been using them for years as an excuse to get out of the house, away from the screaming and yelling.

They could lighten up on the obstacle course however… I’ve been in combat and never saw a single 20-foot wall with rope hanging over the side, nor did I ever do any pushups after completing basic training.

Actually, the running part is kind of a waste of energy, too… I’ve never seen anyone outrun a bullet.

An 18-year-old has the whole world ahead of him. He’s still learning to shave, to start a conversation with a pretty girl. He still hasn’t figured out that a baseball cap has a brim to shade his eyes, not the back of his head.

These are all great reasons to keep our kids at home to learn a little more about life before sending them off into harm’s way.

Let us old guys track down those terrorists. The last thing an enemy would want to see is a couple million angry old guys with bad attitudes and automatic weapons, who know that their best years are already behind them.

Another thought, women over 50 who have enjoyed spending their earlier years with their man could also be considered for the draft. They would make great drill sergeants or generals. They have developed tactics on how to make men over 60 do anything they ask, a winning combination.
 
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