Europe under extreme duress

[Mirage]

You’re right. We should abandon our allies and let Putin run roughshod over Europe because it isn’t ‘Murica.

That isolationism sure worked out well for us the last few times we tried it.

This is the same straw man argument above.

First off, Putin can't run roughshod over Europe because his military is a joke, and his economy is much smaller than Germany's alone, let alone the rest of them.

Second, the world is a dramatically different place than the last time we tried isolationism (which, to be clear, isn't even what I'm advocating. Just a dramatically scaled down version of what we have been doing). For starters, global trade (and our ability to exclude countries from the "cool group") is a powerful tool that we didn't have before. Along with access to global markets, banks, technologies, etc etc.

If a Hitler 2.0 pops up, I'll be the first to say our policy stance should change, and we should rally our allies to all participate equally in shutting him down. But in the mean time, there's nothing wrong with doing the same thing every other country in the entire history of the world has done, which is focusing on using our tax dollars to improve our own country.

 

[Brett327]

This is the same straw man argument above.

First off, Putin can't run roughshod over Europe because his military is a joke, and his economy is much smaller than Germany's alone, let alone the rest of them.

Second, the world is a dramatically different place than the last time we tried isolationism (which, to be clear, isn't even what I'm advocating. Just a dramatically scaled down version of what we have been doing). For starters, global trade (and our ability to exclude countries from the "cool group") is a powerful tool that we didn't have before. Along with access to global markets, banks, technologies, etc etc.

If a Hitler 2.0 pops up, I'll be the first to say our policy stance should change, and we should rally our allies to all participate equally in shutting him down. But in the mean time, there's nothing wrong with doing the same thing every other country in the entire history of the world has done, which is focusing on using our tax dollars to improve our own country.

Not sure how your “America First” strategy squares with GOP spending priorities though. How do you convince them to spend all that iso-windfall on infrastructure… or education, when core interests of the GOP are advocating the dissolution of the Dept of Education.

 

[Random8145]

This is the same straw man argument above.

First off, Putin can't run roughshod over Europe because his military is a joke, and his economy is much smaller than Germany's alone, let alone the rest of them.

Second, the world is a dramatically different place than the last time we tried isolationism (which, to be clear, isn't even what I'm advocating. Just a dramatically scaled down version of what we have been doing). For starters, global trade (and our ability to exclude countries from the "cool group") is a powerful tool that we didn't have before. Along with access to global markets, banks, technologies, etc etc.

If a Hitler 2.0 pops up, I'll be the first to say our policy stance should change, and we should rally our allies to all participate equally in shutting him down. But in the mean time, there's nothing wrong with doing the same thing every other country in the entire history of the world has done, which is focusing on using our tax dollars to improve our own country.

I'd argue the reason the other countries have been able to use their tax dollars to spend on themselves is because of the defense umbrella we've been providing them since the end of World War II. Otherwise, I don't see how any such nations could afford to spend on themselves what they otherwise have.

 

[nittany03]

If a Hitler 2.0 pops up, I'll be the first to say our policy stance should change, and we should rally our allies to all participate equally in shutting him down.

• Commits an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country based on a fucked-up utopian ideological vision of his country deserving to be a superpower and having a special place in history
• Tolerates mass rape, mass targeting and murder of civilians, POW abuse, and POW murder with sledgehammers
• Commits literal genocide by kidnapping children and shipping them off for indoctrination in the Motherland

I'm sorry, what's the trigger? Does Putin literally have to start feeding Jews into gas chambers before our doing anything is legitimate?

 

[Mirage]

• Commits an unprovoked invasion of a neighboring country based on a fucked-up utopian ideological vision of his country deserving to be a superpower and having a special place in history
• Tolerates mass rape, mass targeting and murder of civilians, POW abuse, and POW murder with sledgehammers
• Commits literal genocide by kidnapping children and shipping them off for indoctrination in the Motherland

I'm sorry, what's the trigger? Does Putin literally have to start feeding Jews into gas chambers before our doing anything is legitimate?

Hitler had the capability of taking over all of Europe. Europe required our help. That is the difference (among many others. Putin is a piece of shit but no Stalin or Hitler when it comes to crimes against humanity). Europe currently requires no help to deter/defeat Russia based on economic factors alone. They rely on us because we allow them to, and we do so unnecessarily. Seems obvious.

 

[Random8145]

Hitler had the capability of taking over all of Europe. Europe required our help. That is the difference (among many others. Putin is a piece of shit but no Stalin or Hitler when it comes to crimes against humanity). Europe currently requires no help to deter/defeat Russia based on economic factors alone. They rely on us because we allow them to, and we do so unnecessarily. Seems obvious.

When you say "Europe" I think what you mean is "Western Europe." Eastern Europe is not capable of standing up to Putin on its own, or to the degree that it could, it would struggle mightily (as we've seen with Ukraine). In that sense, the parts of Europe currently under real threat from Putin absolutely do require our help.

Also, I'd say Putin, the Iranian Ayatollah, and Xi Jinping all constitute Hitlers when you look at their policies. They just haven't started a major war yet (Putin tried).

 

[sevenhelmet]

Hitler had the capability of taking over all of Europe. Europe required our help. That is the difference (among many others. Putin is a piece of shit but no Stalin or Hitler when it comes to crimes against humanity). Europe currently requires no help to deter/defeat Russia based on economic factors alone. They rely on us because we allow them to, and we do so unnecessarily. Seems obvious.

The Europe that let itself get dependent on Russian energy and was rapidly tapped out against Libya in 2011? Yes, it’s obvious they need help against Russia.

The Russian army may not have performed to expectations (that’s an understatement), but they are still a nuclear state with a strong willingness to feed people into the meat grinder, and commit crimes against humanity to bring down their neighbors. Belarus is basically a satellite state already, and Moldova is teetering. Yes they’re small and poor states, but what’s next? You think Putin’s Russia will stop there?

What we’re dealing with here is decades of security decline in the European theater. Our enemies were emboldened while we fiddled around in the Middle East (to no avail), at the expense of pretty much everything else. We have to nip this in the bud. By the way, it’s not coming at the expense of domestic infrastructure. If we weren’t throwing money at Ukraine, our political leadership would be trying to give something else away for free that we probably don’t need, in return for votes. Do you really think Congress would say “OK great, let’s put all that formerly Ukraine aid money into schools and railroads?” Seems obvious they wouldn’t.

I’m sorry to say it’s my opinion that infrastructure and education, as important as they are, will not be priorities until things go “splat” here in a big way. They take too long to fix for our current political system to take them seriously as priorities.

 

[Mirage]

When you say "Europe" I think what you mean is "Western Europe." Eastern Europe is not capable of standing up to Putin on its own, or to the degree that it could, it would struggle mightily (as we've seen with Ukraine). In that sense, the parts of Europe currently under real threat from Putin absolutely do require our help.

No, when I say Europe I'm roughly talking about the EU, and they are absolutely capable of standing up to Russia. Hell, Ukraine alone did a pretty fine job at the start of the war, because Russia is not this big behemoth that many of you are acting like. Do you really think that Russia is going to attack a NATO ally after this? Do you think that Russia would stand a chance against Germany alone, let alone the combined forces of EU nations? Now imagine if our European allies were forced to actually take their own defense seriously because we told them we are leaving European affairs such as supplying Ukraine, a non-Ally, to them.

The Europe that let itself get dependent on Russian energy and was rapidly tapped out against Libya in 2011? Yes, it’s obvious they need help against Russia.

This is precisely my point. Europeans have the financial means to provide for their own defense, but instead they get to spend their entire budgets on themselves because we are still pretending like it's 1950 and they need our defense while they rebuild their countries. Still, though, Russia would stand absolutely 0 chance of defeating a Germany, France, or UK, let alone all of them together plus the rest of the EU.

The Russian army may not have performed to expectations (that’s an understatement), but they are still a nuclear state with a strong willingness to feed people into the meat grinder, and commit crimes against humanity to bring down their neighbors. Belarus is basically a satellite state already, and Moldova is teetering. Yes they’re small and poor states, but what’s next? You think Putin’s Russia will stop there?

Russia can conscript people and give them rifles, throwing them to the meat grinder. If they try that against the EU, good luck. Yes, I think Russia will stop at Ukraine. I think Putin already deeply regrets invading Ukraine, and wouldn't do it again if he could.

What we’re dealing with here is decades of security decline in the European theater. Our enemies were emboldened while we fiddled around in the Middle East (to no avail), at the expense of pretty much everything else.

Another case of you making my point for me here. We fiddled around in the ME to no avail, and now we're going to fiddle around in Ukraine while our wonderful European allies do jack shit for their own security and neighbor. Meanwhile China is smiling.

I’m sorry to say it’s my opinion that infrastructure and education, as important as they are, will not be priorities until things go “splat” here in a big way. They take too long to fix for our current political system to take them seriously as priorities.

Unfortunately I think you're right, but we're discussing what we should do, not what we think our leaders will actually do, so this is as irrelevant as Brett's post above.

 

[sevenhelmet]

This is precisely my point. Europeans have the financial means to provide for their own defense, but instead they get to spend their entire budgets on themselves because we are still pretending like it's 1950 and they need our defense while they rebuild their countries. Still, though, Russia would stand absolutely 0 chance of defeating a Germany, France, or UK, let alone all of them together plus the rest of the EU.

I agree the EU should be spending more on its own defense (NATO spending agreements come to mind), but how we got here doesn't define what we need to do now, which is help our NATO allies with aid to Ukraine. Pushing back against Russian aggression is and should be one of a number of clear strategic priorities. Otherwise, this conflict can and will spill over into a larger war later on, which could easily force greater US involvement.

Russia can conscript people and give them rifles, throwing them to the meat grinder. If they try that against the EU, good luck. Yes, I think Russia will stop at Ukraine. I think Putin already deeply regrets invading Ukraine, and wouldn't do it again if he could.

I think Putin badly misread the situation and how things would go if he invaded Ukraine. However, if we dry up support for Ukraine and essentially back off on his land grab, he won't stop there. This has to hurt Putin enough that he doesn't try anything like this again. All somehow without starting WWIII, which is a choice he may try to force at some point. How we deal with that, and the strategic implications of the same are exactly why we should be involved in this now, so we don't have to be involved in a bigger way later.

Another case of you making my point for me here. We fiddled around in the ME to no avail, and now we're going to fiddle around in Ukraine while our wonderful European allies do jack shit for their own security and neighbor. Meanwhile China is smiling.

It's disingenuous to say the EU is doing jack shit for their own security and neighbor- they have provided both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and boosted defense spending (finally). How much and whether they would have done more without US involvement is debatable, but it wasn't zero. I would also argue China is thinking twice about things, seeing how quickly the West rallied around Ukraine when Russia invaded, and how Russia has been weakened by this war.

Unfortunately I think you're right, but we're discussing what we should do, not what we think our leaders will actually do, so this is as irrelevant as Brett's post above.

If so, you just made my point for me: This is not about choosing between Ukraine aid and US Infrastructure, as you alluded to earlier in this thread. Show me what critical national priorities have been explicitly dropped in support of aid to Ukraine. I'll be happy to pay attention.

 

[ABMD]

It already has impacted the American taxpayer.
Import/Export ratios and increased prices across the board. It a laborious process to understand but a quick study in macroeconomics would help you understand the impacts. There is a true butterfly effect from global trade that impacts Americans. A quick sample is a conflict that results in an increase in energy prices to US trade partners = increased import prices to Americans due accelerated manufacturing cost and decreased American trade exports due to increased transportation costs…. and that is just 1 commodity.

This has already happened, see domestic natural gas prices in 2022.



Last Summer could have been worse if it wasn't an LNG plant in TX going offline (that big dip in June).

 

[wink]

I think Russia will stop at Ukraine. I think Putin already deeply regrets invading Ukraine, and wouldn't do it again if he could.

That may be the case, NOW. But I believe that the only reason Russia might stop at Ukraine is because of how the war unfolded WITH western aid. If we took your path it is pretty certain the war would be nearly over and Putin, having adjusted his abysmal strategy, would be looking towards his next target of expansion.

 

[Hotdogs]

Is how France is responding to the war in Ukraine (doing virtually nothing) appeasement? What about Spain? Italy? Basically every Euro country save a few? Why does every country that is actually threatened by Russia get a pass and get to do nothing, but if we do it then it's a horrible thing? It should be the exact opposite. It's their back yard, not ours. This isn't 1950 any more. Europe is rebuilt. They don't need us. Japan doesn't need us. Australia doesn't need us. Israel doesn't need us.

Our kids need us. Our infrastructure needs us. Our debt burden needs us.

Its comical that you cite France as an example of not supporting Ukraine. It’s actually quite the opposite and I would submit somewhat proportional to the size of their defense base given their own strategic priorities. Not to mention the French have been very active in the N. Africa region until very recently. They also are one of the few NATO/EU allies capable of credible force projection. You have a very myopic view of the world and lack context of the region.

 

[Mirage]

If so, you just made my point for me: This is not about choosing between Ukraine aid and US Infrastructure, as you alluded to earlier in this thread. Show me what critical national priorities have been explicitly dropped in support of aid to Ukraine. I'll be happy to pay attention.

Politicians all disagree on what to spend on, and in the rare cases they come to a consensus and agree to spend money on something, they don't all speak with one voice to say, "We didn't spend money on X because we are spending too much money on Y". That's just not how it works, as you know. That doesn't change the fact that 100% of the money we're sending to Ukraine is borrowed, and we are paying interest on it. I noted 3 priorities of mine earlier, which are education, infrastructure, and our debt. Even if we just addressed the debt by not taking on so much more of it, that'd be a win.

That may be the case, NOW. But I believe that the only reason Russia might stop at Ukraine is because of how the war unfolded WITH western aid. If we took your path it is pretty certain the war would be nearly over and Putin, having adjusted his abysmal strategy, would be looking towards his next target of expansion.

Its comical that you cite France as an example of not supporting Ukraine. It’s actually quite the opposite and I would submit somewhat proportional to the size of their defense base given their own strategic priorities. Not to mention the French have been very active in the N. Africa region until very recently. They also are one of the few NATO/EU allies capable of credible force projection. You have a very myopic view of the world and lack context of the region.

Ukraine stopped Russia initially by itself. Who knows how it would have progressed without help, but regardless, that's not what I am suggesting. Here's a graph of aid to Ukraine by country:

I am not suggesting we do nothing to help Ukraine. Hotdogs, if you think France has done so much, then maybe we agree, because I believe we should do as much as they have. They, on the other hand, should be doing far more than we are if they give a shit about European defense and are so afraid of Russia like some on here appear to still be. If we didn't do so much, others would be forced to step up and take care of their own yard. What's happening now is akin to a rich guy (Europe) going to buy a new BMW while begging his rich neighbor (the US) to give him a gun and build a fence around his yard. And we're the suckers who keep doing it!

 

[taxi1]

Putin is a piece of shit but no Stalin or Hitler when it comes to crimes against humanity).

Be patient. Also, Putin has nukes. Hitler didn't. I could easily see him tactically nuking Ukraine still.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is allowing us to degrade the Russian threat for pennies on the dollar, at no risk to our lives. Talk about a gift.

Ukrainians have copies of that same chart of who is supplying aid as you do. They will remember.

 

[Random8145]

No, when I say Europe I'm roughly talking about the EU, and they are absolutely capable of standing up to Russia. Hell, Ukraine alone did a pretty fine job at the start of the war, because Russia is not this big behemoth that many of you are acting like. Do you really think that Russia is going to attack a NATO ally after this? Do you think that Russia would stand a chance against Germany alone, let alone the combined forces of EU nations? Now imagine if our European allies were forced to actually take their own defense seriously because we told them we are leaving European affairs such as supplying Ukraine, a non-Ally, to them.

Right now, no, but given some time to rebuild, who knows? You might say he'll be dead by then, but he will have a successor. And Ukraine's being a non-ally doesn't mean it still shouldn't be aided, due to being a people seeking to become free and also being a very strategically important state.

That doesn't change the fact that 100% of the money we're sending to Ukraine is borrowed, and we are paying interest on it. I noted 3 priorities of mine earlier, which are education, infrastructure, and our debt. Even if we just addressed the debt by not taking on so much more of it, that'd be a win.

While I agree that the debt is a huge problem, stopping the money to Ukraine over it would be like throwing a deck chair off the Titanic to cut the weight down. The major drivers of the debt are Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, and then defense spending for a fourth and being the smallest of those. Unless/until they figure out a way to reduce the costs of the first three, the debt will continue to climb.

My own opinion is that education does not need any federal involvement. Leave that solely to the states and local governments. To the extent that the federal government has involved itself in education, it has wrecked it. It got involved in subsidizing college and so has caused the price to skyrocket. It got involved in public education via Special Education which has thus perverted that in all manner of ways. A lot of infrastructure is actually state level as well, just the state governments are so corrupt that they often do not maintain their infrastructure the way they should.