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NEWS If War Comes, Will the U.S. Navy Be Prepared?

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
China is green. That and diversity inclusion is why they’re winning influence. /China think tank expert
I have a feeling that when he says “China Research Center” he really means a “Confucius Institute” much like this…

 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Sorry, it appears I deleted or edited out that the US has about 3600 combat aircraft (this doesn’t include attack helicopters or maritime patrol).

One thing, but is that the Navy in that region or U.S. combat aircraft overall...?
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
What I wonder about is will China be like Japan in that it takes them 60 years of modernization to achieve the military capabilities to really project power and then start using it. Japan started with the Meiji Restoration in 1868 and by the 1930s was engaging in imperialism. China started in 1978 with really modernizing, so give twenty more years of development. In terms of their not attacking because they are economically intertwined with the U.S., that is true, but unlike the Soviet Union, China is now headed by a dictator and if after Xi dies they have another dictator in the future, said dictator might decide that the economic cost of trying to take Taiwan is worth it.
 

Notanaviator

Well-Known Member
Contributor
What I wonder about is will China be like Japan in that it takes them 60 years of modernization to achieve the military capabilities to really project power and then start using it. Japan started with the Meiji Restoration in 1868 and by the 1930s was engaging in imperialism. China started in 1978 with really modernizing, so give twenty more years of development. In terms of their not attacking because they are economically intertwined with the U.S., that is true, but unlike the Soviet Union, China is now headed by a dictator and if after Xi dies they have another dictator in the future, said dictator might decide that the economic cost of trying to take Taiwan is worth it.

Comparing the relative positioning of China and Japan is going to be about as apples and oranges as it gets, if nothing else from an economic/demographic perspective. The Meiji period wrt the ‘opening of Japan’ to the West is fascinating on its own, and you can unpack how that played into the nationalism in the 1920s/30s for a while, but you’re going to have so many adjustments in the differences between the two that the similarity ends once you get past a common feature that China is tapping into a much longer arc of historical superiority (Middle Kingdom dynamic) to fuel a nationalist resurgence, just as Japan did through the last couple of decades of 19th c and first third of the 20th c.

I have found McMaster’s latest book Battlegrounds a good place to start if you’re trying to understand some of the different players in today’s world, as he does a typically good job of grounding things in historical context.
 

Hail_HYDRA!

One more question...
You’re completely anonymous here, that’s why. I’m sure you’re not the only annoying “academic” at your “four year institution.” I’ll go first… I work at NAWDC, in Fallon, NV. Specifically, I lead HAVOC. I’m in building 465C. Anyone on this forum can come to my office to visit, chat, or engage in professional discourse. I don’t know why you wouldn’t extend the same courtesy to us here.
Hey, wanna swap out your 1830 with an 1810? ?
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
One thing, but is that the Navy in that region or U.S. combat aircraft overall...?
It doesn’t matter. I noted our ability to move aircraft globally with unmatched aerial refueling capability. Also, our more substantial Pacific allies share not simply that capability but cross-National, shared standards.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
From the start I never said TACAIR wouldn’t happen.

I said we don’t know how the conflict could play out and there’s a chance TACAIR isn’t involved just like there’s a chance other warfare areas are not involved.

@Spekkio summed it up as well and I think we are talking past each other.

I am looking at it through the lens of we don’t know the political will of our country or theirs and there is a chance China acts through proxy wars.

Like I said it’s a major risk for a full scale conflict for China. They want to be recognized as a world super power but if they get into a full scale conflict and the US decides that the only acceptable terms is full and unconditional surrender then China is going to basically face the end and they may not want that risk.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
You’re completely anonymous here, that’s why. I’m sure you’re not the only annoying “academic” at your “four year institution.” I’ll go first… I work at NAWDC, in Fallon, NV. Specifically, I lead HAVOC. I’m in building 465C. Anyone on this forum can come to my office to visit, chat, or engage in professional discourse. I don’t know why you wouldn’t extend the same courtesy to us here.
I apologize. I didn’t realize that was required and I prefer to keep myself anonymous online. I don’t even do social media.

But next time I’m In Fallon I’ll stop by your desk to bother you and buy you a beer at the O club.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Like I said it’s a major risk for a full scale conflict for China. They want to be recognized as a world super power but if they get into a full scale conflict and the US decides that the only acceptable terms is full and unconditional surrender then China is going to basically face the end and they may not want that risk.

Just curious, but how would China "face the end"? They are not small Japan. And even Japan was very hard to break, it took two atomic bombs and the Soviet Union declaring war. At most, IMO, China would just suffer an embarrassment if they lost a conflict with the U.S.
 

FrankTheTank

Professional Pot Stirrer
pilot
I apologize. I didn’t realize that was required and I prefer to keep myself anonymous online. I don’t even do social media.

But next time I’m In Fallon I’ll stop by your desk to bother you and buy you a beer at the O club.
You ain’t ever been and will never be in Fallon. And the only beer you could offer Brett is whatever cheap shit you steal out of Mom and Dad’s fridge in the basement!

Go back to harassing your friends on Xbox!
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
I apologize. I didn’t realize that was required and I prefer to keep myself anonymous online. I don’t even do social media.

But next time I’m In Fallon I’ll stop by your desk to bother you and buy you a beer at the O club.
It's not required, but I'd consider it "adult" and "professional." Fun fact, this is social media... and you're doing it right now.
 
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