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NEWS If War Comes, Will the U.S. Navy Be Prepared?

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
There are some important tour sequencing reasons to do Joint tours post-DH, at least for aviators. For due course guys going into major command - especially the ANV folks - there may not be good opportunities to do a 22 month joint tour and the JPME-2 requirements post O5 command. Everyone is due course, until they're not, so that's a planning factor for PERS to deal with.

On the experience side, I'd say it's absolutely invaluable to a future squadron CO. Nittany hit the nail on the head. Yeah, you may be a Powerpoint Jockey some of the time. Other times, you're briefing CJCS or writing talking points for POTUS, or prepping senior leadership for congressional testimony. You get to see how the sausage is made... how government works... and when government falls on its face because of bureaucratic red tape. The fact that you're probably not working issues related to your platform experience is kinda the whole point.
 

AllAmerican75

FUBIJAR
None
Contributor
@Jim123 posted over in the CJCS vs Rep Gaetz thread but I thought it warranted breaking out into its own:


The WSJ article talks about this report: A Report on the Fighting Culture of the United States Surface Navy Fleet. A lot of talk about readiness, culture, morale, and a money quote of "The Navy treats warfighting readiness as a compliance issue", ouch.

The article's author has an interesting Twitter thread that summarizes her views. (If you can't get through the WSJ paywall but use Chrome, I recommend the excellent Cookie Remover plugin to clear cookies on a per-site basis.)

Haven't seen many SWOs respond so I figure I'll jump in:

1. "The number of GMTs is too damn high" mantra is spot on. Really, it seems repetitive and an administrative burden. Most of the time, the operational commanders don't care, but it's the admin chain of command that does and the admin chain of command never stops. Skippers get tired of getting poked in the eye by the commodore over the DNQ list because that's ultimately who's writing their FITREPs.

2. The zero defect mentality is very real but it doesn't get applied uniformly. Again, many of the "zero defect" decisions that are getting made seem to be driven by how visible the incident is/was or how visible the ISIC thinks it will be. That's a political game that is as old as the sea service and I don't think will change. What I do see is a reticence to make decisions without buy in from higher command or to provide COs with the autonomy they may have once enjoyed. I think this is a symptom of how connected we are with C5I systems and media, but I'm not sure how you fix it. Either way, it makes us reactive instead of proactive and hampers our ability to seize the intitiative.

3. I couldn't tell you if the surface maintenance plan is on an uptrend or not, but every one of their criticisms and accusations is spot on. This is a symptom of our inability as a nation to wean ourselves off of the world police bottle and accept that Cold War paradigms are not applicable to the world at large anymore. We don't need a 2.0 presence in the Persian Gulf any more and we don't need to be involved in all the different bush wars and regional feuds stretching from West Africa to Bangladesh. We need to reduce deployments, put more money into maintenance, and recapitalize our public and private shipyards and industrial infrastructure.

4. SWO training is pitiful. It usually amounts to death by powerpoint for a month or so before going to your ship and learning while on the job. Strides have been made with simulators but nothing replaces the hands-on experience of driving, fighting, and commanding a ship. I think the YP program at the Academy and the Year at Sea program at the maritime universities are the correct direction to go. Really, SWOSDOC, BDOC/ADOC, or whatever it's called these days needs to have hands-on learning with time "at sea" even if it is only in the Chesapeake Bay. We also need more junior commands. The experience I got as an XO on a PC has been invaluable to me, exposing me to larger Navy programs/processes, leadership mentoring from my CO, and learning what does and doesn't work as a leader in a Command Triad position. Junior SWOs need to be able to go and get their hands dirty and skin their knees as leaders where the stakes are lower before being thrust into a sink-or-swim scenario as a DIVO, DH, or CO/XO.
 
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picklesuit

Dirty Hinge
pilot
Contributor
Sitting 8 months into my Joint tour, I think post-DH is absolutely the right time for Aviators to be here. I have just enough experience and interaction with the various staffs to have an idea how they work and interact at the Operational to Tactical level, I knocked out my JPME 1 so I have the book knowledge to allow me to read the myriad documents I now have to ingest, and if I were competing for a spot as a CO I would show up with an appreciation for what actually goes into making decisions that affect an entire CSG/Wing/Squadron, as opposed to the JOPA viewpoint of “those idiots don’t know what they are doing”.

It’s a steep learning curve, absolutely Army centric framework, but having the ability to prepare and deliver briefs to the decision makers at the top and see that impact on the real world is awesome.

I’m viewing through a J5 lens, so it’s less PowerPoint fonts and backgrounds (ours are all set and the same, it’s convenient) and more about content and interpretation. I love getting to turn the strategic documents into operational plans, and I love having the access to watch the decision makers deliberate in person/on VTC the real future of our forces.

I’m sure it’s probably some form of masochism, but I truly enjoy this job. I still miss flying, and will look to sneak back into the cockpit one more time (anyone looking for a CNATRA Wing CoS in a couple years, hit me up) but if I have to ride a desk, the one I chose is pretty decent.
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
So just my civvie perspective, but what I wonder is, regarding China, the U.S. Navy people say (such as Brett) that it doesn't have the resources to do its peacetime missions let alone handle a peer adversary. The U.S. Navy is spread globally. Whereas the Chinese' goal is mainly to take Taiwan right now, and so they are (it seems) building a naval force that is very capable close-in. Whereas our navy is spread globally, the entire Chinese navy is right in that one area, and the Chinese are also building artificial islands to serve as fixed aircraft carriers. They have one aircraft carrier currently and are building more. Their long-term goal is to have a blue-water capable navy, but to fight the U.S. close-in over Taiwan, I don't know if that is really important.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
So just my civvie perspective, but what I wonder is, regarding China, the U.S. Navy people say (such as Brett) that it doesn't have the resources to do its peacetime missions let alone handle a peer adversary. The U.S. Navy is spread globally. Whereas the Chinese' goal is mainly to take Taiwan right now, and so they are (it seems) building a naval force that is very capable close-in. Whereas our navy is spread globally, the entire Chinese navy is right in that one area, and the Chinese are also building artificial islands to serve as fixed aircraft carriers. They have one aircraft carrier currently and are building more. Their long-term goal is to have a blue-water capable navy, but to fight the U.S. close-in over Taiwan, I don't know if that is really important.
That is why I was saying it’s entirely impossible to know how the next conflict plays out.

If PRC goes across the strait and takes TWN is the US going to respond? Do we have the political will for that?
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
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Super Moderator
Contributor
So just my civvie perspective, but what I wonder is, regarding China, the U.S. Navy people say (such as Brett) that it doesn't have the resources to do its peacetime missions let alone handle a peer adversary. The U.S. Navy is spread globally. Whereas the Chinese' goal is mainly to take Taiwan right now, and so they are (it seems) building a naval force that is very capable close-in. Whereas our navy is spread globally, the entire Chinese navy is right in that one area, and the Chinese are also building artificial islands to serve as fixed aircraft carriers. They have one aircraft carrier currently and are building more. Their long-term goal is to have a blue-water capable navy, but to fight the U.S. close-in over Taiwan, I don't know if that is really important.
Is there a question or statement in this word salad? Couple points... The Chinese have two carriers, with several more planned/under construction. The entire Chinese Navy is not "right in one area," as they maintain a counter-piracy force in the Gulf of Aden/Arabian Sea.
 

Brett327

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Super Moderator
Contributor
entirely impossible to know
It's entirely impossible to know whether you will die in your sleep tonight. What steps are you taking in case that happens? Is your family preparing for your imminent death, or are they expecting you to survive through the night? Impossible to know, with absolute certainty. What advice do you give to your family members during these uncertain times?
 

Random8145

Registered User
Contributor
Is there a question or statement in this word salad? Couple points... The Chinese have two carriers, with several more planned/under construction. The entire Chinese Navy is not "right in one area," as they maintain a counter-piracy force in the Gulf of Aden/Arabian Sea.

It is a statement about the topic on a part that is of concern to me. Maybe saying their navy is "right in one area" is technically incorrect, but it seems to be far less spread out then ours is.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
It's entirely impossible to know whether you will die in your sleep tonight. What steps are you taking in case that happens? Is your family preparing for your imminent death, or are they expecting you to survive through the night? Impossible to know, with absolute certainty. What advice do you give to your family members during these uncertain times?
I’m 100 percent not trolling and don’t understand why you refuse to recognize alternative views not based entirely in force and force engagement.

Look back to the Cold War. No one thought the closest to conflict was going to be the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Just like now, it’s not hard to believe that the next engagement won’t be CSG v CSG but could easily be the 8 ETC positioning themselves against TWN looking for diplomatic concessions.
 

Mirage

Well-Known Member
pilot
I’m 100 percent not trolling and don’t understand why you refuse to recognize alternative views not based entirely in force and force engagement.

Look back to the Cold War. No one thought the closest to conflict was going to be the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Just like now, it’s not hard to believe that the next engagement won’t be CSG v CSG but could easily be the 8 ETC positioning themselves against TWN looking for diplomatic concessions.
This guy makes a lot of stupid points, but this isn't one of them in my opinion. It's the same concept we preach about Russia regarding hybrid warfare. I think maybe the confusion is Brett is imagining we're talking about "war" with China, and troll boy is talking about any number of smaller conflict scenarios where China could take Taiwan and our response would not involve CVNs.
 

nodropinufaka

Well-Known Member
This guy makes a lot of stupid points, but this isn't one of them in my opinion. It's the same concept we preach about Russia regarding hybrid warfare. I think maybe the confusion is Brett is imagining we're talking about "war" with China, and troll boy is talking about any number of smaller conflict scenarios where China could take Taiwan and our response would not involve CVNs.
That’s exactly what I am talking about.

If China wants to grow and gain influence in the region and not have an all out war- why would they engage in a force on force conflict?

once they engage the US directly in a major engagement. No one knows what the desired end state will be for either side.

Will PRC be willing to take the chance that US end state could possibly be the entire surrender like they did Japan in WW2?

They could easily gain a lot more influence and power by engaging in small conflicts across the island chains to get where they want and limit engagements.
 

Brett327

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Super Moderator
Contributor
That’s exactly what I am talking about.
If that's your position, then you've made a category error in this conversation... or you're just a troll. Since you're in "academia" now, you have the luxury of attending to academic questions, vice practical ones. Since you've repeatedly referred to your academic credentials, precisely what academic institution are you attached to?
 
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