The end of NATO?

[Griz882]

Honestly done with the X would never do Y commentary...bc it continually proves to be false. It's a failure of imagination.

You may have a point. Setting aside Brett’s curious baiting expedition, some roadblocks stand in the way, primarily, U.S. Law, (created specifically to stop Trump) also there actual ideas drawn up by Trump’s team concerning NATO.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517

Of course, there is precedent. President Carter unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of a defense treaty with Taiwan (talk about unintended consequences), but he didn’t have existing U.S. Code for opponents to carry to SCOTUS. Change might be in the air, but I don’t see the alliance ending anytime soon.

 

[SynixMan]

In a world where everything is viewed as transactional, principles don’t matter, Article 5 is now just a bargaining position. SCOTUS can’t order the military to Latvia. After Friday’s display, Europe know they can’t rely on the United States. Putin is too weak in the short term to move on the Baltics, but it’s a looming possibility in the coming years.

Again, this will result in rampant nuclear proliferation and the EU forming some alternative NATO. They have no choice. Debatable if the cost will plunge them into a recession and drag us into it.

 

[JTS11]

You may have a point. Setting aside Brett’s curious baiting expedition, some roadblocks stand in the way, primarily, U.S. Law, (created specifically to stop Trump) also there actual ideas drawn up by Trump’s team concerning NATO.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517

Of course, there is precedent. President Carter unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of a defense treaty with Taiwan (talk about unintended consequences), but he didn’t have existing U.S. Code for opponents to carry to SCOTUS. Change might be in the air, but I don’t see the alliance ending anytime soon.

The concept of soft quitting still applies I think...which is kind of the same and has bad consequences IMO.

 

[Griz882]

In a world where everything is viewed as transactional, principles don’t matter, Article 5 is now just a bargaining position. SCOTUS can’t order the military to Latvia. After Friday’s display, Europe know they can’t rely on the United States. Putin is too weak in the short term to move on the Baltics, but it’s a looming possibility in the coming years.

Again, this will result in rampant nuclear proliferation and the EU forming some alternative NATO. They have no choice. Debatable if the cost will plunge them into a recession and drag us into it.

This is a reasoned out look. It is worth adding if Russia itself might suffer from a significant economic setback when it comes time to pay the Ukrainian piper.

 

[Griz882]

The concept of soft quitting still applies I think...which is kind of the same and has bad consequences IMO.

Good point, but you can only soft quit for about 100 miles until you run into the first US fighting unit. That said, there is only a four year space here, and Russia doesn’t have enough offensive strength to try a trick like that, even if the U.S. sat it out.

 

[JTS11]

Good point, but you can only soft quit for about 100 miles until you run into the first US fighting unit. That said, there is only a four year space here, and Russia doesn’t have enough offensive strength to try a trick like that, even if the U.S. sat it out.

So what's the point? Why not put the boot on Russia's neck right now, instead of belittling a former Soviet republic leader and country yearning to align with us and Europe? Makes zero sense to me.

The second order effects are not known exactly...but the soft power argument applies...Fuck, the Canadians are booing our national anthem right now.

 

[MaxGar]

Good point, but you can only soft quit for about 100 miles until you run into the first US fighting unit. That said, there is only a four year space here, and Russia doesn’t have enough offensive strength to try a trick like that, even if the U.S. sat it out.

Not deliberately stirring the Griz-pot, but that hundred miles might grow larger as they talk about pulling troops from Eucom

 

[JTS11]

You may have a point. Setting aside Brett’s curious baiting expedition, some roadblocks stand in the way, primarily, U.S. Law, (created specifically to stop Trump) also there actual ideas drawn up by Trump’s team concerning NATO.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/02/nato-second-trump-term-00164517

Of course, there is precedent. President Carter unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of a defense treaty with Taiwan (talk about unintended consequences), but he didn’t have existing U.S. Code for opponents to carry to SCOTUS. Change might be in the air, but I don’t see the alliance ending anytime soon.

Griz, our current POTUS doesn't know what AUKUS is, and thinks Spain is the S in BRICS. I can pull the clips if you need.

All that to say, the rolling over of the GOP is/has been difficult to watch...

 

[Griz882]

Griz, our current POTUS doesn't know what AUKUS is, and thinks Spain is the S in BRICS. I can pull the clips if you need.

All that to say, the rolling over of the GOP is/has been difficult to watch...

It is easy to get caught up in the various shades of politics but all that does is drive others to pull out clips of Biden’s gaffes and so on it goes. I find it best to concentrate on, or dig into, the policy positions that are written down for action…not words spoken for shock value.

 

[Randy Daytona]

If you actually listen to what is being said, no one of importance is suggesting we end our NATO alliance. To suggest otherwise is just wasted speculation.

In Ezra Klein’s discussion with Fareed Zakaria (interestingly a graduate student of Samuel Huntington) that more jolting to the Europeans was not the Russian invasion but by the possibility of abandonment by the Americans- perhaps they needed a kick in the pants via Trump. (Their words, not mine.)

Nothing so far has gotten the Europeans to spend less on domestic and more on defense - perhaps Trump’s meeting with Zelensky will have an effect.

(Poland excluded - and I am very interested in what Trump says and does with Poland considering this)

 

[taxi1]

It is easy to get caught up in the various shades of politics…I find it best to concentrate on, or dig into, the policy positions

Policy positions? You are making the same mistake so many have, of thinking there is some sort of normal kernel to what is going on.

It’s not normal. Trump is not normal. He has no policy, he only has grievances.

Want proof? Watch how Starmer all but blew Trump during his visit, offering him a second (!!!!) state visit with the royalty to get similarly stroked by King Charles. How much British brainpower went in to the visit? How much policy was discussed versus supplicant behavior exhibited? What was the outcome?

They know. They study Trump from an objective position outside of our politics. It’s all personal. China, Israel, Russia, France, etc. They have their best & brightest intel folks digging into his noggin. We have smart people trying to Trumpsplain.

Zelensky gooned it up. He should have gone so over the top freakishly overboard in his praise that POTUS would have appropriately aroused while the rest of the planet would have seen through the game. He walked into their trap.

It isn’t politics, this isn’t about Dems versus Repubs and sound bite gotchas.

 

[Brett327]

I find it best to concentrate on, or dig into, the policy positions that are written down for action…

You mean like this? Project 2025

 

[Griz882]

Policy positions? You are making the same mistake so many have, of thinking there is some sort of normal kernel to what is going on.

It’s not normal. Trump is not normal. He has no policy, he only has grievances.

Want proof? Watch how Starmer all but blew Trump during his visit, offering him a second (!!!!) state visit with the royalty to get similarly stroked by King Charles. How much British brainpower went in to the visit? How much policy was discussed versus supplicant behavior exhibited? What was the outcome?

They know. They study Trump from an objective position outside of our politics. It’s all personal. China, Israel, Russia, France, etc. They have their best & brightest intel folks digging into his noggin. We have smart people trying to Trumpsplain.

Zelensky gooned it up. He should have gone so over the top freakishly overboard in his praise that POTUS would have appropriately aroused while the rest of the planet would have seen through the game. He walked into their trap.

It isn’t politics, this isn’t about Dems versus Repubs and sound bite gotchas.

I never said it was normal. Trump’s policies, many I don’t agree with, are designed to shatter the status quo. Some of it is necessary, some of it is cruel, and I’ll readily agree that the whole process will be messy. But there are policy positions that are adhered to even as Trump runs wild with his mouth. The neocon era is over and we get to ride the roller coaster to the end.

 

[Griz882]

You mean like this? Project 2025

Sure. While not an official document it is quite clear a lot of ideas have been drawn from this.

 

[CommodoreMid]

Although I do truly believe Trump when he says he never read it.