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23MAY2022 SNA/SNFO BOARD

F

Fib

Well-Known Member
College is what has held me up, and an ex girlfriend lol. “Baby why don’t you just get an engineering job and move here with me and we can get engaged! :D” Glad that ended earlier this year and I’m back on track. Graduating in May and then hopefully get that PRO REC Y!!!!!!!!
 
E

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
FloridaDad said:
This is what I'm hoping so badly for. And also why I'm retaking my ASTB because there's no way whatsoever that a 6 PFAR is going to cut it. I need to get that up to an 8!

My recruiter commented to me that part of the delay with OCS dates is being caused by some renovations in Pensacola that have gone way over schedule and delayed SNAs attending NIFE.
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My confidence in your recruiter goes down even more every time you post something he tells you. The military doesn't stop for renovations, we may work is some asbestos filled office or old ship as a temporary work space, but the work will get done.
 
T

towleba

Pro-Rec Y SNFO FY24
Hey guys, finally able to post. Was waiting on a Wavier forever but finally got it. I took the ASTB back in December of last year and got a 63 8/7/7 with a 2.98 in Physics. I've been teaching and coaching football for 5 years and want to know what you guys think about those scores for an SNA slot? Should I retest with my 7's?
 
D

Dboom85

Banned
towleba said:
Hey guys, finally able to post. Was waiting on a Wavier forever but finally got it. I took the ASTB back in December of last year and got a 63 8/7/7 with a 2.98 in Physics. I've been teaching and coaching football for 5 years and want to know what you guys think about those scores for an SNA slot? Should I retest with my 7's?
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I think you’re good, just acknowledge the gpa in your motivational statement
 
maths_student

maths_student

New Member
kuni_fg said:
Hey y’all, I had too much time on my hands so I tried making an ML model of predicting SNA selection this afternoon.

It currently predicts Y/N with a 93% accuracy and I can try your scores through it if you want.

A couple of huge caveats here with the data:
  • The quality of training data is pretty shit. I could only find 3ish spreadsheets easily on the AW forums, and was too lazy to go and find others.
  • The “waivers” column seems to be a relatively recent addition, so it doesn’t really exist in the previous data. That said, accuracy didn’t improve when I discarded
  • There is a pretty big bias towards “yes” because only the die-hards pilot wannabes post on this forum/spreadsheets and those that do are generally pretty likely to get yes’s. There is a surprising lack of prorec-N’s in the sheets I looked at.
  • The selection yes/no is purely based off of SNA applicants. I didn’t include NFO because that was too much work and it seems you’re pretty likely to get in if you select NFO as your primary.
  • I only had 150ish rows of data from the sheets I found, so I duplicated it on the assumption that the spread of applicant stats is relatively similar across boards, in order to get more training data. So, the existing biases are doubled.
  • Didn’t include college major b/c I didnt' want to deal with it.
  • This is strictly from the spreadsheet data, so it’s not reflecting the “whole person” concept with stuff that can’t be quantified. <- biggest caveat
So with those rather large caveats out of the way, here are some observations:
  • Age IS unsurprising a big factor. Curiously, there’s a dip between 27-29, but I think that’s mostly a dataset issue.
  • PFAR is the next best predictor
  • OAR and GPA are weighted pretty similarly, as is AQR
  • Interestingly, the FOFAR is a better predictor than Flight experience - meaning it can be said with pretty good confidence that flight exp doesn’t really matter.
  • Prior service and sex are also negligible.
Next steps: if any of you guys and gals have extra time, it would be interesting to build out a better dataset together. That means finding the past board spreadsheets, cleaning it, and putting it into this model to train it better. That would yield better results, and I might be able to make a webapp so ppl can look up their own scores.

Using the model, I tried predicting my own prob of prorec-Y and got a Yes with 96%. LMK if you want me to try putting your scores into it and seeing what comes out. Caveats blah blah blah.

The model itself:

View attachment 34200

Trying my own scores
View attachment 34201
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Was there an attempt to do some cross-validation on your model? Did you try other models? You mentioned training data. How did you allocate the data to a training set e.g., top N-rows, % random sample of the data, half-train/half-test, etc.

Also, I was wondering if you wouldn't mind DMing me the dataset you've been able to compile? I was thinking about creating a predictive model myself today, and when I searched the forum, I came across your post.

And it's good that you did this project!

If time permits, I think I'd be able to create something using R shiny.
 
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