23MAY2022 SNA/SNFO BOARD

[Dboom85]

Same story here, my friend asked me what did I take when I was with them later

 

[Triumph_MAC]

I blindly fumbled around with my phone while my eyes were dilated at my physical and got a picture of my eyes. I was amazed when my vision cleared and saw they were all pupilView attachment 34281

Lol, those drops will keep your eyes dilated for up to 24 hours. Depending on when you had them dilated, you'll notice some light sensitivity tomorrow. Vision should be back to normal though.

 

[FarSouth_CycleSAR]

Hey y’all, I had too much time on my hands so I tried making an ML model of predicting SNA selection this afternoon.

It currently predicts Y/N with a 93% accuracy and I can try your scores through it if you want.

A couple of huge caveats here with the data:

• The quality of training data is pretty shit. I could only find 3ish spreadsheets easily on the AW forums, and was too lazy to go and find others.
• The “waivers” column seems to be a relatively recent addition, so it doesn’t really exist in the previous data. That said, accuracy didn’t improve when I discarded
• There is a pretty big bias towards “yes” because only the die-hards pilot wannabes post on this forum/spreadsheets and those that do are generally pretty likely to get yes’s. There is a surprising lack of prorec-N’s in the sheets I looked at.
• The selection yes/no is purely based off of SNA applicants. I didn’t include NFO because that was too much work and it seems you’re pretty likely to get in if you select NFO as your primary.
• I only had 150ish rows of data from the sheets I found, so I duplicated it on the assumption that the spread of applicant stats is relatively similar across boards, in order to get more training data. So, the existing biases are doubled.
• Didn’t include college major b/c I didnt' want to deal with it.
• This is strictly from the spreadsheet data, so it’s not reflecting the “whole person” concept with stuff that can’t be quantified. <- biggest caveat

So with those rather large caveats out of the way, here are some observations:

• Age IS unsurprising a big factor. Curiously, there’s a dip between 27-29, but I think that’s mostly a dataset issue.
• PFAR is the next best predictor
• OAR and GPA are weighted pretty similarly, as is AQR
• Interestingly, the FOFAR is a better predictor than Flight experience - meaning it can be said with pretty good confidence that flight exp doesn’t really matter.
• Prior service and sex are also negligible.

Next steps: if any of you guys and gals have extra time, it would be interesting to build out a better dataset together. That means finding the past board spreadsheets, cleaning it, and putting it into this model to train it better. That would yield better results, and I might be able to make a webapp so ppl can look up their own scores.

Using the model, I tried predicting my own prob of prorec-Y and got a Yes with 96%. LMK if you want me to try putting your scores into it and seeing what comes out. Caveats blah blah blah.

The model itself:

View attachment 34200

Trying my own scores
View attachment 34201

Not trying to piss in your Cheerios or make any less of the work you’ve put into this, but my selection goes against almost all of your observations:
- I got selected as a 35 yo
- PFAR wasn’t great (6) - at the time the min was 5
-OAR wasn’t terrible - 59, AQR wasn’t anything big either - 7, GPA was 3.5 in M. Arch
-FOFAR was 6
-I am prior service with 1,200 flt hours.

You can’t predict the outcome of these maddening boards. For the little guys out there, (or old farts like me) don’t give up! Put your best foot forward.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Not trying to piss in your Cheerios or make any less of the work you’ve put into this, but my selection goes against almost all of your observations:
- I got selected as a 35 yo
- PFAR wasn’t great (6) - at the time the min was 5
-OAR wasn’t terrible - 59, AQR wasn’t anything big either - 7, GPA was 3.5 in M. Arch
-FOFAR was 6
-I am prior service with 1,200 flt hours.

You can’t predict the outcome of these maddening boards. For the little guys out there, (or old farts like me) don’t give up! Put your best foot forward.

You are a one off, and I can say that several years ago you wouldn't have even been allowed to go to board.

If a person meets the PA they should be allowed to submit like you did even if it is with waivers.

What he created is something that gives the candidate a good idea on their chances, there are NRD's that will restrict how many applications a recruiter can submit (I don't agree) and those that do will cherry pick who goes to board and if the recruiter has more space the lesser ones will go next.

 

[FarSouth_CycleSAR]

You are a one off, and I can say that several years ago you wouldn't have even been allowed to go to board.

If a person meets the PA they should be allowed to submit like you did even if it is with waivers.

What he created is something that gives the candidate a good idea on their chances, there are NRD's that will restrict how many applications a recruiter can submit (I don't agree) and those that do will cherry pick who goes to board and if the recruiter has more space the lesser ones will go next.

Good thing for fleet people is we know how to read instructions like PA’s and don’t have to play the game with recruiters… like I said before, not pissing in his Cheerios, but no one really knows what the board looks for in a qualified applicant, as we often see “shoe-ins” not get picked up.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Good thing for fleet people is we know how to read instructions like PA’s and don’t have to play the game with recruiters… like I said before, not pissing in his Cheerios, but no one really knows what the board looks for in a qualified applicant, as we often see “shoe-ins” not get picked up.

It is pretty known what they look for in aviation PFAR or FOFAR, and it hasn't changed in at least 20 years or more, when you can determine with a very high degree of accuracy by looking at the score you know who has a very good chance.

There will always be outliers, there are in any situation.

 

[Maze_soba]

Not trying to piss in your Cheerios or make any less of the work you’ve put into this, but my selection goes against almost all of your observations:
- I got selected as a 35 yo
- PFAR wasn’t great (6) - at the time the min was 5
-OAR wasn’t terrible - 59, AQR wasn’t anything big either - 7, GPA was 3.5 in M. Arch
-FOFAR was 6
-I am prior service with 1,200 flt hours.

You can’t predict the outcome of these maddening boards. For the little guys out there, (or old farts like me) don’t give up! Put your best foot forward.

Hey man, cheerios are not pissed in and no offense taken.

This is simply a model built on a dataset of 4 spreadsheets' worth of data and accurate for 93% of the cases. So the observations I made are just that: observations. It's a set of educated/math-assisted guesses based on the data given. It's like looking at a dataset of open umbrellas and rain, and observing that a certain density of open umbrellas is a pretty good way to guess if it's raining or not. There will be those who don't fit into the model because they either don't use umbrellas or use sun blocker umbrellas. (Weird analogy, I know, but the only one I can think of at the moment lol)

There are always outliers and big caveats in this kind of analysis, with the biggest in our case being that you can't turn the 'whole person' concept into numbers like you pointed out. I simply wanted to get a data-driven answer to the infamous "what are my odds?" question that's asked frequently.

And, for what it's worth, I put your numbers in and got a "yes" with 70% ?

 

[Jacksa71]

It’s funny that you say that. I just found a person (prior service) that got selected for SNA with a 4/5/3, 43 oar. I was a shock when I seen it. Unfortunately part is he got dropped for whatever reason through the pipeline

 

[Tumbleweed33]

It’s funny that you say that. I just found a person (prior service) that got selected for SNA with a 4/5/3, 43 oar. I was a shock when I seen it. Unfortunately part is he got dropped for whatever reason through the pipeline

seems to justify the ASTB score being the best predictor of finishing the pipeline

 

[Dboom85]

It’s funny that you say that. I just found a person (prior service) that got selected for SNA with a 4/5/3, 43 oar. I was a shock when I seen it. Unfortunately part is he got dropped for whatever reason through the pipeline

That’s a shame. Idk about the rest of you guys but that irritates me, that individual got lucky and didn’t capitalize.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

It’s funny that you say that. I just found a person (prior service) that got selected for SNA with a 4/5/3, 43 oar. I was a shock when I seen it. Unfortunately part is he got dropped for whatever reason through the pipeline

How long ago was that selection?

 

[Jacksa71]

I do not think that’s the case. There is a lot of people that drop out through the pipeline with 9s and 8s. Everyone is different and have different circumstances.

I did post the year applied but deleted it. It was in the 2010s for your information.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

I do not think that’s the case. There is a lot of people that drop out through the pipeline with 9s and 8s. Everyone is different and have different circumstances.

I did post the year applied but deleted it. It was in the 2010s for your information.

Not compared by percentage to those with lower scores, this is not counting medical drops. Several years ago they had a chart and basically the lower the PFAR/FOFAR score the lower the chance of completing the pipeline. It was quite a few years of data and I am sure they keep adding to it. That data is why the biggest factor for selection is the PFAR/FOFAR. When it comes to aviation it is about money spent and ROI so they keep track of all that data.

There were a few boards back in the 2009-2011 time that had very high selections rates due to rumors of boards being cancelled or NRD's restricting applications, instead of lowering selections they picked from what was available. That is why they had some wild selection rates back then.

 

[Madz91199]

Retaking my ASTB tomorrow and the nerves are finally setting in. I’ll update everything after I take it.

 

[Jacksa71]

Does anyone know how long it takes to get results after the board convenes? Looking at the AUG board, it took 12-13 days.