Europe under extreme duress

[number9]

Both Ukrainian and Western intelligence sources say Russia has lost about 70,000 troops in the past two months and about 550,000 so far since the start of the war, with a casualty rate right now of about 1,000 - 1,500 a month. At the current loss rate, they may raise their total losses to 700,000+ (I think they said 770,000) by the end of the year. Putin is seeking to win via mass and/or Western fatigue forcing Ukraine to negotiate. I am really curious at these loss rates how long Putin can sustain this.

The cynic in me says he just has to wait until January 2025.

 

[Griz882]

The cynic in me says he just has to wait until January 2025.

I don’t think the person reflected in your cynicism is that stupid…and he is noteworthy for his prior mistakes. No POTUS (not even one with some evangelical backing) will stay in power with images of Russians marching proudly through a newly occupied nation haunting him. In his earlier term he got shellacked in the midterms for doing stupid stuff. I imagine he is a little bit wiser now.

 

[number9]

I don’t think the person reflected in your cynicism is that stupid…and he is noteworthy for his prior mistakes. No POTUS (not even one with some evangelical backing) will stay in power with images of Russians marching proudly through a newly occupied nation haunting him. In his earlier term he got shellacked in the midterms for doing stupid stuff. I imagine he is a little bit wiser now.

I really, really, really hope you are right.

 

[Griz882]

I really, really, really hope you are right.

I’d be more worried about France (and maybe the UK) in the immediate future. Here in the US, even if Trump wins the White House, the House and Senate will remain nearly 50/50 and not all of those are party-line adherents.

 

[number9]

I’d be more worried about France (and maybe the UK) in the immediate future. Here in the US, even if Trump wins the White House, the House and Senate will remain nearly 50/50 and not all of those are party-line adherents.

I don't really worry that he will try to withdraw from NATO or anything crazy like that, but I do seriously worry that he will tell Putin "if you stop fighting now, I'll let you keep everything you currently occupy".

 

[Griz882]

I don't really worry that he will try to withdraw from NATO or anything crazy like that, but I do seriously worry that he will tell Putin "if you stop fighting now, I'll let you keep everything you currently occupy".

Last thing I read was…if Ukraine wants money they need to go to the negotiating table and to Russia, if they don’t show up willing then the US will give Ukraine more weapons with better technology. Frankly, it sounds like a smart proposal.

 

[Flash]

I’d be more worried about France (and maybe the UK) in the immediate future. Here in the US, even if Trump wins the White House, the House and Senate will remain nearly 50/50 and not all of those are party-line adherents.

Eh? Very little foreign policy-wise will change with the UK's new government, especially Ukraine which has very wide support there, and Macron's gamble seems to have not backfired on him...yet, and he remains a strong supporter of Ukraine.

 

[Griz882]

Eh? Very little foreign policy-wise will change with the UK's new government, especially Ukraine which has very wide support there, and Macron's gamble seems to have not backfired on him...yet, and he remains a strong supporter of Ukraine.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but these kinds of changes often have an impact.

 

[Hair Warrior]

No POTUS (not even one with some evangelical backing) will stay in power with images of Russians marching proudly through a newly occupied nation haunting him.

This sort of already happened in Abkhazia and South Ossetia within the past year…

 

[Griz882]

This sort of already happened in Abkhazia and South Ossetia within the past year…

Those are a bit different not just by geography but their status when invaded.

 

[number9]

6 years ago I never would have said "No POTUS will stay in the public's good graces by shitting all over one of nation's most famous POWs who devoted his life to public service", but look how that turned out with Senator McCain.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Those are a bit different not just by geography but their status when invaded.

Mostly agree, but if we look back to 2008 it’s not terribly different in terms of ends/ways/means, although on a much smaller scale than Ukraine 2014-present.

 

[Griz882]

6 years ago I never would have said "No POTUS will stay in the public's good graces by shitting all over one of nation's most famous POWs who devoted his life to public service", but look how that turned out with Senator McCain.

I met McCain a few times and he was a great guy, but he never leaned too greatly on his POW experience when it came to politics. He knew how to throw sharp elbows and knew how to take them. That doesn’t forgive Trump, but we all know he is an ass, so his political swipes don’t mean much to other politicians.

 

[number9]

I met McCain a few times and he was a great guy, but he never leaned too greatly on his POW experience when it came to politics. He knew how to throw sharp elbows and knew how to take them. That doesn’t forgive Trump, but we all know he is an ass, so his political swipes don’t mean much to other politicians.

The point I was trying to make was less about how Trump treated McCain, but how Republican politicians and voters treat him (or his memory, I guess) now.

 

[Griz882]

The point I was trying to make was less about how Trump treated McCain, but how Republican politicians and voters treat him (or his memory, I guess) now.

I can’t think of any national political figure that hasn’t been completely skewered including other actual heroes - it is the game.