Yeah, I'm curious what's going to happen. It seems like stuff like this hits a tipping point, and then it happens quickly. Regime security forces just dissolve away.
Sure, agreed. I'm not surprised Assad's significantly weaker than he was 3-4 years ago. His two big backers (Russia and Iran) are preoccupied with their own stuff, after all. I'm just not clear on how the HTS group got its shit together enough to rally all the other groups, and well armed and organized enough to launch an offensive like this. Who armed them? I know they scout's-honor swear they're not an AQ affiliate any more, but I don't think we, Israel, Turkey, KSA, or any of the big European players buy that enough to give them guns. The last thing Iraq or the Jords want is Syria going hot and then collapsing. I don't know who that leaves.
Unfortunately, short of a sudden turnaround by Assad, I think the most likely scenario is Syria goes the way of Libya. Regime collapses, the rebel groups turn on each other once they've won, no group is strong enough to unify or beat the other groups into submission, and you get perpetual semi-organized gang war on a big scale.
I think that's the big point. I think they use those air bases to resupply whatever fuckery they're doing in central Africa as well. The loss of access to the Med would seem like a big deal to me.
Just got done watching that vid. Yeah, I think he does a good job breaking down the actors and complexities. Thanks for sharing.
That’s absolutely true, as well as everything they have going on in Libya. Not having logistical hubs in Syria may force a significant Russian drawdown in Libya, which they’ve been using to facilitate access into the rest of the continent. It’ll be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next few months.
That’s absolutely true, as well as everything they have going on in Libya. Not having logistical hubs in Syria may force a significant Russian drawdown in Libya, which they’ve been using to facilitate access into the rest of the continent. It’ll be fascinating to see how this plays out over the next few months.
If you wanted to go for a real Kissinger-style, “fuck over my enemy today and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow” policy, then give the HTS group guns and money enough to finish the job and kick over Assad. It makes all kinds of problems for Iran and Russia and makes some of our problems in Israel, the Sahel, and in the Med go away, or at least easier to solve.
That's entirely true. The "We'll see" comment is on point. Maybe the country gets balkanized, and they agree to not fuck with each other (Kurds)...but that may be naive.
The only person on this forum who would have the knowledge and desire to comment would be Skeeterman, maybe this will draw him out.
Tempted to rally up a team of pipe hitting thugs and take the place over, but they’d probably ‘depose’ me after a couple of days.
While it is good to see Russia and Iran get a kick in the teeth the “what comes next” issue is a real concern. I believe the greatest damage will fall on Iran as now the people have clear and convincing evidence that governments can be disposed of. I’m not predicting a rebellion in Iran, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. The real question is what, if any, impact will it have on Russia?