Europe under extreme duress

[Griz882]

Rebels in Damascus claim victory; Assad has left country, Russia says​

This is going to be pretty huge. Just *how* remains to be seen.

While it is good to see Russia and Iran get a kick in the teeth the “what comes next” issue is a real concern. I believe the greatest damage will fall on Iran as now the people have clear and convincing evidence that governments can be disposed of. I’m not predicting a rebellion in Iran, but I wouldn’t be surprised

 

[JTS11]

While it is good to see Russia and Iran get a kick in the teeth the “what comes next” issue is a real concern. I believe the greatest damage will fall on Iran as now the people have clear and convincing evidence that governments can be disposed of. I’m not predicting a rebellion in Iran, but I wouldn’t be surprised

I'd be surprised if Russia is allowed to maintain their naval port and few airfields there by whatever Syrian govt is formed. There are probably a lot of Syrians who remember RUS's airforce involvement in the indiscrimate bombing of population centers. But, we'll see.

 

[SynixMan]

I'd be surprised if Russia is allowed to maintain their naval port and few airfields there by whatever Syrian govt is formed. There are probably a lot of Syrians who remember RUS's airforce involvement in the indiscriminate bombing of population centers. But, we'll see.

NFW they let the Russians stay after all that. If anything there might be a deal to be struck for Syrian air defense munitions with interested third parties. 🤔

I too remain skeptical this will not turn into another Lybia (morass of infighting) or Egypt (another strongman), but maybe there's a chance?

 

[JTS11]

NFW they let the Russians stay after all that. If anything there might be a deal to be struck for Syrian air defense munitions with interested third parties. 🤔

I too remain skeptical this will not turn into another Lybia (morass of infighting) or Egypt (another strongman), but maybe there's a chance?

Hopefully we have dudes on the ground there explaining how the West will help you all rebuild, and that Russia has no capacity to do so. Probably depends on what a potential power struggle turns out to look like. Just my hope that it turns out alright, but I'm clear-eyed it might not.

 

[Uncle Fester]

I don’t see any way Russia maintains any significant presence or influence with the new Syrian gov’t, given how directly involved they were in the war. Guess it depends on who comes out on top in the new power arrangement, and how many higher-ups from the previous regime are allowed to stay in office and how much influence they actually wield.

More investing will be seeing how Iran reacts. They’re obviously pissed about losing one of their big strategic partners, and this means big trouble for Hezbollah too. It wouldn’t surprise me if they try to bump off as many of the senior, Western-leaning leaders in the new government as they can over the next month or two.

 

[taxi1]

I don’t see any way Russia maintains any significant presence or influence with the new Syrian gov’t, given how directly involved they were in the war. Guess it depends on who comes out on top in the new power arrangement, and how many higher-ups from the previous regime are allowed to stay in office and how much influence they actually wield.

More investing will be seeing how Iran reacts. They’re obviously pissed about losing one of their big strategic partners, and this means big trouble for Hezbollah too. It wouldn’t surprise me if they try to bump off as many of the senior, Western-leaning leaders in the new government as they can over the next month or two.

I'm thinking this will finally bring peace to the Middle East.

Kumbaya, motherf***ker

 

[JTS11]

I don’t see any way Russia maintains any significant presence or influence with the new Syrian gov’t, given how directly involved they were in the war. Guess it depends on who comes out on top in the new power arrangement, and how many higher-ups from the previous regime are allowed to stay in office and how much influence they actually wield.

More investing will be seeing how Iran reacts. They’re obviously pissed about losing one of their big strategic partners, and this means big trouble for Hezbollah too. It wouldn’t surprise me if they try to bump off as many of the senior, Western-leaning leaders in the new government as they can over the next month or two.

Let's see how that works out for them. They've been wrecked so far...but yeah they still have capabilities. Hopefully, they'll get wrecked more.

 

[robav8r]

I'm thinking this will finally bring peace to the Middle East.

Kumbaya, motherf***ker

@taxi1 i'm all about the day drinking, trust me. But exercise a little social media ORM, OK?
🤣

 

[robav8r]

Boy, not a good day for the OSA II fleet . . . .

 

[Griz882]

Boy, not a good day for the OSA II fleet . . . .

I wonder if the IAF used “Torah, Torah, Torah!” as their to communicate success?

 

[Uncle Fester]

I wonder if the IAF used “Torah, Torah, Torah!” as their to communicate success?

There’s reporting that it was done with SSMs off of some of the IDF’s missile boats. Which is also pretty cool.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Good write up from ISW on exactly how fucked Iran is by Assad’s fall.

And another one from TWZ speculating about whether Russia is fucked. Punchline: depends on who comes out on top in the “unity” Syrian government.

 

[Griz882]

Good write up from ISW on exactly how fucked Iran is by Assad’s fall.

The conclusion of the article is spot on…

“The United States should exploit Iran’s current vulnerability and weakness to push back on the Axis of Resistance in Iraq and Yemen. Doing so would include increasing support for—rather than abandoning—Iraqi leaders who wish to see their country independent of Iranian influence and subversion. It would also include destroying the willingness of the Houthis to continue attacks on international shipping rather than conducting intermittent airstrikes on their capabilities.”

 

[robav8r]

The conclusion of the article is spot on…

“The United States should exploit Iran’s current vulnerability and weakness to push back on the Axis of Resistance in Iraq and Yemen. Doing so would include increasing support for—rather than abandoning—Iraqi leaders who wish to see their country independent of Iranian influence and subversion. It would also include destroying the willingness of the Houthis to continue attacks on international shipping rather than conducting intermittent airstrikes on their capabilities.”

Yemen, in particular, needs to be "recalibrated."

 

[Flash]

Yemen, in particular, needs to be "recalibrated."

But how? The Saudis bombed it as much as they could and we are doing it semi-regularly now too. To say that place is a mess, and has been for decades, is an understatement.