I do when you out right lie in your opening statement. Stick to the facts of the conversation…not the churn you feel about Trump. This should be a discussion about end-state, not Trump’s trolling war.
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The end of NATO?
- Thread starter Waveoff
- Start date
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
There is a lot of hawkish mentality ITT without any consideration for political end-state.
I'm pro support Ukraine, but the end-state is stalling Russia long enough for Europe to unfuck its military capabilities and prevent an invasion in the Baltics without relying on the U.S. to provide 90%+ of the military effort to defend them. And yes, I'm aware that COA leads to Ukraine becoming fully Russian, eventually.
Let's not mirror image our western values onto the rest of the world - no one in the Middle East or Asia is going to change their foreign policy based on the morality of whether or not the U.S. should have defended Ukraine. Their mentality is transactional and 'what can you do for me now?' just like the Russians.
If you want Ukraine to 'win,' it means eliminating Putin and probably at least a dozen people who think just like him. The options are the use of conventional forces, covert ops, long range precision strike, or nuclear first strike. Pick your poison.
If all of those cross red lines for you, then you're on team negotiate a settlement because that's the only way you preserve any sovereign Ukraine territory at all.
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As it relates to Ukraine and Europe's potential roll, this is a pretty interesting conversation. Sir Alex also moves past his personal thoughts on Trump and gets down to potential paths politician Trump may take. I believe this aired about 6 days ago.
The reality of pulling back from NATO is nuclear proliferation will rule the rest of this half of the century. Germany, Ukraine (if it survives), Asian democracies, maybe Poland and the Baltics will all want their own deterrent now that we've proven to be an unreliable partner. The bill for protecting western democracies in the last 80 years was high, sure, but the cost of taking out Germany twice and Japan once was far far higher.
One the Ukraine front, we absolutely could do things short of the 101st Airborne in Donetsk. Russia already says it's "at war with NATO". Meanwhile the worlds greatest fighting force hasn't really done anything beyond provide weapons, intel, and training, usually in too little amounts and too late.
One the Ukraine front, we absolutely could do things short of the 101st Airborne in Donetsk. Russia already says it's "at war with NATO". Meanwhile the worlds greatest fighting force hasn't really done anything beyond provide weapons, intel, and training, usually in too little amounts and too late.
I too question the readiness and reliability of Russias nuclear forces. I’ve noted many times here that I’m not convinced Russian missile force commanders would turn the key on Putin’s order. That said, these thoughts don’t reflect the political reality of the last ten years.
Sorry, Ukraine: Obama is not going to defend you from Russia
Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology, culture, science, the climate crisis, money...
www.vox.com
The US response to the Crimea crisis
Bulletin experts offer their suggestions on the best short-term US response to the Ukraine crisis, and on how US policy toward Russia should change in the longer term as a result of events in Crimea.
thebulletin.org
US scrambled to urge Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Woodward book says
Months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, the United States had intelligence pointing to “highly sensitive, credible conversations inside the Kremlin” that Russian President Vladimir Putin was seriously considering using nuclear weapons to avoid major battlefield losses.
apnews.com
"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world" -George Washington
What was George Washington’s position on nuclear proliferation, and our use of security guarantees in order to convince other countries they don’t need to acquire them?
Guess we should throw out the Constitution while we're at it, huh?
Good find…this is exceptionally good analysis. It doesn’t take much to imagine Trump viewing the world in older “super power” terms and I also agree that the late 20th Century system of soft power is reaching the end of its effectiveness. Europe can, and should, “get back to the gym” and get more muscular in terms of military capability mostly because Russia is in a very weak moment right now with shrinking demographics and troubled industrial capacity propped up by a dictator with a nuclear arsenal. Europe can contain Russia until a new Russian government decides it is better to sell gas than bleed to death in a series of small wars they can’t win.
None of this signals the end of NATO, just a shift to Europe defending itself knowing that the U.S. will help…not the current status where the U.S. will defend Europe while they help…maybe.
Thinking in the long term, it is worth considering that around the globe the rising power is India (now being armed by the U.S.) and this could encourage China to eye opportunities to their west (because Russia is so weak) rather than taking an aggressive stance in the Pacific. In any case, change is coming.
I entirely agree. Trump is all sharp elbows and mean-girl rhetoric. I don’t like his style, but it is what we have, so the discussion is, in my mind, about the end product, not the “art of the deal.”
But his intentions are true? His heart is in the right place?
It is enormously telling that Trump bullies and grotesquely lies about the guy who only has 1/4th of the manpower of the guy he is sucking up to. That he extorts him while in an extremely vulnerable position, after a 3 year war degrading the country that has untold nukes pointing at us. That he negotiates with Russia directly over Ukraine’s war. That he gives away key negotiating positions before negotiating starts.
It’s not sharp elbows and mean-girl rhetoric. It is a fundamental character flaw.
It’s not relevant. Obama elevated Putin and Russia by putting them in the WTO, but he did it with the diplomatic language of soft power and artificial “cool.” The impact is the same - we can now see it is a mistake - so the diplomatic style is meaningless once the outcome is known. Trump is whipsawing Russia and the Ukraine like a drug-addled terrier with a rat. He appears to have a plan but it is clear it isn’t total Ukrainian victory with a return to pre-Obama borders nor total capitulation to Russia.
As Oleksandr V Danyluk, a former advisor to Ukraine’s defence and intelligence chiefs and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute has noted, Trump has not significantly shifted from what was the de-facto the position of the previous administration - who also saw the Ukraine giving up about 20% of its territory and won’t join NATO. The very recent news of a minerals deal alters the narrative significantly and is an opening for American military aid to the Ukraine - potentially good news. The end point is, history doesn’t care about the sound of the rhetoric, it only remembers the outcome.
China joined the WTO in 2001, WTF are you talking about?
It's not just about Ukraine.
I know you can't shoot values, but we could have a similar outcome or better in Ukraine that doesn't require us to align with Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Sudan against Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Japan, and most everyone else that isn't a rogue state.
I know you can't shoot values, but we could have a similar outcome or better in Ukraine that doesn't require us to align with Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and Sudan against Britain, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Japan, and most everyone else that isn't a rogue state.
He has personal grievances.