Europe under extreme duress

[Uncle Fester]

Yemen, in particular, needs to be "recalibrated."

But how? The Saudis bombed it as much as they could and we are doing it semi-regularly now too. To say that place is a mess, and has been for decades, is an understatement.

"Shitshow in a dumpster fire" has been Yemen's normal mode of operation for most of its history. Even when the Brits ran the place, they mostly stuck with keeping Aden port and the BAM open and left the countryside to the locals. We're not going to bomb the place into being quiet like the Serbs, and I think its fair to say our appetite for open-ended counter-insurgency in the desert is pretty well used up for a while. Short of a seriously clamped-down naval blockade to keep all Iranian ships out, I'm not sure there's a viable solution.

Another interesting tidbit from ISW on the fallout from Syria. Sounds like a lot of Iranian leadership is reacting to Assad's collapse like we did to Afghanistan's:

Members of Iran’s armed forces and Iranian policymakers are increasingly disillusioned with Iran’s handling of the collapse of the Assad Regime. Iran observers have noted that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij members are critical of Iran's failure to intervene more decisively in Syria to support Assad against the opposition's surprise offensive, citing IRGC communication channels and interviews with IRGC members. An IRGC member stated that Syria was "crucial” for the Axis of Resistance, and "abandoning" Assad was a "betrayal" that would have serious consequences for Iran. Another member stated that the "[IRGC youth] will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers." Iranian Parliamentarian Mohammad Manan Raisi stated that "after sacrificing six thousand martyrs and spending billions of tomans, we handed Syria over [in just one week]." These statements reveal dissatisfaction within Iran over its failure to support the Syrian regime, raising concerns about Iran's ability to sustain its influence via the Axis of Resistance. These frustrations—if they become wildly held among the security services and key Iranian leaders—could lead to the removal of top Iranian military commanders, including in the IRGC.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I have wondered for years why we don't blockade or screen traffic into Yemen more often to stem the tide of weapons into the country.

 

[Uncle Fester]

I have wondered for years why we don't blockade or screen traffic into Yemen more often to stem the tide of weapons into the country.

Mostly because carrying out blockades sucks, if you’re going to do them right/effectively. And Yemen’s a particularly bad country to try to blockade. The weather and seas can be god-awful (remember those two SEALs who drowned a while back coming back from a boarding). It’s a long coast full of little “fishing” villages so even if you close down the big ports, most of the stuff they’re running (small arms, manpads, ammo, etc) can be brought in there or just brought over the beach. You couldn’t do a total blockade, turning away every ship, because causing a humanitarian disaster doesn’t play well on TV, so you have to actually stop and search every suspect ship (and in that part of the world, every third boat looks suspect). Boardings and searches are dirty, dangerous, and extremely exhausting even when you’re not doing it in 130-degree weather. All of that in one of the most heavily-trafficked sea lanes in the world, plus every once in a while you get to take a break to shoot down the drones and missiles the bad guys are lobbing at you.

We basically have been trying to blockade the country for the last few years, every Iranian ship we can ID and track, and obviously plenty of stuff is still getting through.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Mostly because carrying out blockades sucks, if you’re going to do them right/effectively. And Yemen’s a particularly bad country to try to blockade. The weather and seas can be god-awful (remember those two SEALs who drowned a while back coming back from a boarding). It’s a long coast full of little “fishing” villages so even if you close down the big ports, most of the stuff they’re running (small arms, manpads, ammo, etc) can be brought in there or just brought over the beach. You couldn’t do a total blockade, turning away every ship, because causing a humanitarian disaster doesn’t play well on TV, so you have to actually stop and search every suspect ship (and in that part of the world, every third boat looks suspect). Boardings and searches are dirty, dangerous, and extremely exhausting even when you’re not doing it in 130-degree weather. All of that in one of the most heavily-trafficked sea lanes in the world, plus every once in a while you get to take a break to shoot down the drones and missiles the bad guys are lobbing at you.

We basically have been trying to blockade the country for the last few years, every Iranian ship we can ID and track, and obviously plenty of stuff is still getting through.

Fair points. It's frustrating to watch Iran and the Houthis continue to harass shipping in the Red Sea, but it's hard for me to think of a better solution that wouldn't lead to all-out war.

 

[JTS11]

An Azerbaijani airline inbound to Grozny, Chechnya in Russia had to divert to an airfield in Kazakhstan last night and crashed. Conflicting reports on casualties, but there were some survivors.

Looked to me like severe controlability issues. Also, interesting damage on the fuselage. Thoughts?

x.com

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[Brett327]

An Azerbaijani airline inbound to Grozny, Chechnya in Russia had to divert to an airfield in Kazakhstan last night and crashed. Conflicting reports on casualties, but there were some survivors.

Looked to me like severe controlability issues. Also, interesting damage on the fuselage. Thoughts?

x.com

x.com

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I’ve seen several reports that it was shot down by a Russian SAM, which would be totally on point for them.

 

[JTS11]

I’ve seen several reports that it was shot down by a Russian SAM, which would be totally on point for them.

Here's the apparent flight path.

I was up when the first reports came out, and there were reports of heavy fog at Grozny...but also the.Ukranians had or were attacking Grozny with drones, so not sure exactly the reason for the divert.

The initial speculation that came out was they hit a flock of birds...lol. But yeah, it appears a Russian naval SAM hit it. Those fucktards are incompetent.

 

[taxi1]

Looked to me like severe controlability issues. Also, interesting damage on the fuselage. Thoughts?

Certainly looks like it was phugoiding.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I’ve seen several reports that it was shot down by a Russian SAM, which would be totally on point for them.

True to brand, anyway. Based on what I’ve heard, I’m not sure I’d use the phrase “on point” to describe Russia’s missile doctrine.

The level of sheer ignorance on social media never ceases to amaze me.

 

[Flash]

Finland boarded and seized a Russian merchant ship they suspect was involved in damaging undersea cables. The Finns appear to be very unamused, as usual.